According to plan

Ragans is typically masterful. Massey jumpstarts the offense. Salvy saves the game with his arm.

It seems there are three things that are guaranteed in every Cole Ragans start. One, there’s going to be rain in the forecast. The Royals actually moved the start time up by 30 minutes to dodge the severe weather that was approaching. Two, he’s going to make hitters look silly. Nineteen swing and misses? All in a night’s work. And three, he’s not going to get much help from the offense. Entering the game on Monday, the Royals’ bats supported their ace to the tune of 3.4 runs per start for Ragans. They didn’t top that number, but still tallied the win, edging the Brewers 3-2.

Let’s start with Ragans and his night. I’ve been sitting here a moment, thinking about what to write because it was what we’ve come to know as a typical Ragans start. Maybe I’ll just start noting these things at Typical Ragans. That’s probably selling him short, because Typical Ragans means he pretty much shoved. On Monday, the lefty twirled another gem, throwing six innings where he struck out eight and walked just two. He backed off his four-seamer a bit for the second consecutive start—he had been offering that pitch around half the time in each of his previous three starts before that—and mixed up his change and knuckle curve a bit more that usual.

At times, the cutter is his third-most frequent pitch. Other times, it’s that knuckle curve. It’s interesting to see how the good starting pitchers mix up their arsenal from start to start. At his heart, Ragans will be that fastball/changeup kind of guy. Those next three pitches though? Good luck guessing on those.

The above graph doesn’t include Monday’s start, but you can reference the table above to see what I’m talking about.

What made it that Typical Ragans start was his swing and miss. Nineteen of those to go along with 17 called strikes. The changeup was filthy.

The only blemish was the home run he allowed to Gary Sánchez in the fourth. It was a four-seamer down and in that the right-hander clobbered. Not a bad pitch given he was down 2-1 in the count except he had just offered a 2-0 fastball in the exact same location the pitch prior. Sánchez was ready. The only other issue was that home run came after Ragans had allowed his first hit of the night to Willy Adames.

Other than that hiccup in the fourth, Ragans was nails. Typical Ragans. All he would need was some runs from his offense. Easier said than done.

Milwaukee starter Bryse Wilson opened the season in the Brewers bullpen and didn’t exactly pitch with distinction, allowing runs in four of his first five appearances. Decimated by injuries and a trade, the Milwaukee rotation is in desperate need for reinforcements, so Wilson was stretched out as a reliever and found his way to the mound as a starter. He’s pitched better since the shift. Monday was his best outing of the season.

It looked like the Royals would be able to apply some pressure. Maikel Garcia opened the game with a walk. After Bobby Witt Jr. grounded into a fielder’s choice, he swiped second. Vinnie Pasquantino struck out, but Salvador Perez was hit by a pitch, putting runners on first and second with two outs. Michael Massey grounded out, ending the sliver of a threat.

In the second, Hunter Renfroe led off with a single, but was stranded on first after none of the next three hitters could advance him.

That was the start of 12 straight retired by Wilson, four via strikeout. This Royals offense, man…

Once Wilson was out of the game and the Royals had their opening, they capitalized. That’s not always going to happen (witness Sunday’s loss to the Rangers), but this seems to be the blueprint for 2024. We’ll see how far that carries them. Looking beyond the production from Garcia, Witt and Perez at the top of the order, the Royals need a hot bat or three to put together the big innings that will carry this team offensively. For now, that lumber belongs to Massey. With the Royals staring at that 2-0 deficit going into the seventh inning, Mr. MASHey, well, he mashed.

That’s a 1-2 four-seam fastball, elevated on the inner half at 89 MPH from a left-handed pitcher. Massey is some kind of locked in at the plate these days. It was his third home run in the last six games and he’s currently in possession of a nine-game hitting streak, a career-high. He’s batting .375 (12-for-32) with 8 RBI during this stretch.

The home run didn’t tie the game, nor did it put the Royals ahead. It simply served a familiar notice: With the starter Wilson out of the game, the Royals were not going to go quietly.

The Royals’ seven, eight and nine hitters haven’t been the least productive bottom third in baseball this season. Although you wouldn’t be blamed if you believed it to be true. Their collective .268 OPB ranks 26th out of the 30 teams and their .288 slugging percentage is 27th. Not good. Overall, they have a 76 OPS+, meaning that the production from the lower third of their lineup is 24 percent worse than the league average. Their are worse teams, but you’re talking about teams like the White Sox and the Marlins and the Cardinals. That’s not the offensive company you’d like to be keeping in 2024.

Sometimes, though…sometimes that bunch comes through. With one out in the seventh Nelson Velázquez was hit by a pitch, Adam Frazier walked and Dairon Blanco hit an infield single to load the bases. Nobody said it had to be pretty.

That brought up Garcia, who’s on a bit of a heater himself these days. After breaking his 0-26 stretch on April 19, he’s reached base in 17 of 19 games. He had already walked twice on Monday. In this at bat, he lined a single back through the box for two runs, the lead and the final margin of victory. Garcia now has 22 RBI on the year, the second-most on the team. Frazier has scored seven runs and Garcia has been responsible now for five of those.

After James McArthur pitched two innings in Sunday’s extra innings loss he was most definitely unavailable for Monday’s game. That meant Matt Quatraro would lean on relievers not quite in that circle of trust. Nick Anderson looked solid in the seventh, striking out two in a clean inning of work. Tyler Duffey took the ball for the eighth and was not near as sharp. Quatraro was quick with the hook, allowing him to face the three batter minimum before going to Will Smith for the eighth. Duffy left a bit of a mess for Smith, leaving runners on first and second with just one out. Perez was a good teammate and helped him clean it up.

That is just perfection. I’m not entirely certain that the runner, Jackson Chourio, was out. But how can you deny that?

The pitch wasn’t a bad one to handle, and Salvy, who has spoken recently of spending his offseason conditioning working on his flexibility over strength. You see that on display here. He’s up out of his crouch and moving his feet as he’s receiving the ball. The throw is perfectly placed on the second base side of the bag, with Garcia only needing to drop his glove to make the tag. Again, I’m not entirely sold that the out was made, but the play was close enough (and thank you, Angel Hernandez!) that there wasn’t enough evidence to overturn.

That was the first time this year Perez has gunned down a runner at third. Savant had his pop time at 1.43 seconds. That’s amazing for a throw down to third. So far this season, the best pop time to third is 1.4 seconds by Elias Díaz. Last year, Perez’ pop time was 1.5 seconds.

The dude is getting set to turn 34 this week and somehow he’s getting better. I don’t think it’s understating anything to say his throw saved the game. Do you trust Will Smith with a runner on third and one out?

You don’t have to answer that question.

I’m sure you saw the news from the weekend that the Miami Marlins have started their most recent rebuild by sending Luis Arraez to San Diego for a slew of prospects. With the Royals lineup scuffling at times, wouldn’t it make sense to get a bat like Arraez to slot in at the top of the order so they could move Garcia down? That’s exactly what is meant my lengthening the lineup.

Whoa, whoa, whoa…Here’s Ken Rosenthal…

At least one other team, the Kansas City Royals, was in contact with the Marlins about Arraez last week, according to major-league sources who were granted anonymity for their candor. Those talks, however, never advanced beyond the preliminary stage. The Padres’ pursuit of Arraez dated to the offseason (the Seattle Mariners also restated their longstanding interest then). In the end, Bendix determined he could not “walk past” the San Diego offer.

It’s always something to hear about teams that were in on a player just after he moved. In this case, it would appear that Picollo and the Royals aren’t content to just let this opening salvo play out. They are at least semi-actively trying to figure out ways to improve their club. We’re obviously still two-plus months out from the trade deadline and plenty can change in that stretch, but I think a deadline with the Royals in contention would be incredibly interesting with Picollo and his staff in charge. They’ve been exceptional at unearthing gems up to this point. Arraez is certainly a known commodity, but again, a bat who would’ve made the Royals lineup a bit longer. Something they will need if they’re still in the hunt after the All-Star Break.

I’m not sure the fit was ever there, though. Even for the bat of Arraez. He’s not a great defender and the Royals already have a glut of second basemen, his best position. He can play first and third, but those spots are spoken for. He’s played a little outfield, but not enough where the Royals would be comfortable putting him out there on a daily basis. Ironically, it’s the same situation the Padres now find themselves in with Arraez on their roster—there’s just not an obvious fit. I suppose you get the bat now and sweat the details later.

Winning by a score of 3-2, the Royals won their seventh game of the year where they scored three or fewer runs. That matches the total number of wins they had last year when scoring three or fewer runs. What a difference quality pitching makes.

Speaking of quality pitching, there’s this nugget from the Royals PR staff:

(The Royals have) allowed 2 runs or fewer for the Majors-most 18th time in 36 games (50.0%) and are 16-2 in those games with the most such wins in the Majors.

For a little perspective, last year the Seattle Mariners had the most games where they allowed two runs or fewer with 65. That was 40 percent of the games they played. The Royals had 32 such games in 2023. They’re a little over halfway to that total in just those 36 games.

These kinds of things just blow my mind. As a longtime follower of this franchise, I didn’t think we would see this kind of turnaround, this fast. We’re not even at the quarter point of this season, so it’s far too premature to make any declarations as to the permanence of such things, but it has to be said again and again…credit to John Sherman for allowing his general manager to dip his toes in the trade and free agent markets, and credit to JJ Picollo for those signings and deals and engineering a five-plus-week stretch that sees the Royals relevant in May for the first time in eight years.

It’s only five weeks in a long season, but it sure as hell beats the familiar alternative.

Central Issues

Because it’s fun again…

Tigers 1, Guardians 2

Riley Greene homered on the first pitch of the game. It was all downhill from there. A gradual decline, but still…downhill. Triston McKenzie shook off the dinger and fired five innings where he struck out six, including four in a row after that leadoff home run. He outdueled Jack Flaherty who pitched six strong innings, allowing a game-tying single in the bottom of the first to Will Brennan and the go-ahead home run to that man, José Ramíez in the sixth.

White Sox 2, Rays 8

Mike Clevenger got battered over two innings in his season debut, allowing six hits and four walks as the Rays tallied four runs, three earned. There’s a lesson here, but I’m not sure the White Sox front office is savvy enough—or generally decent enough—to recognize it. Tampa tacked on four more against the Chicago bullpen, as one does.

Mariners 1, Twins 3

Minnesota bounced back a day after their 12-game winning streak came to an end to once again enjoy certain cured meats. Max Kepler had two more hits. Carlos Correa, Christian Vázquez and Manuel Margot each drove in a run. Simeon Woods Richardson pitched six innings of one-hit ball. It was, as they say, a total team effort.

The Tigers have slumped of late and have dropped into the category of Wild Card also-ran Still, quite amazing the Central has two of those three spots, even for early May. It would be funny if the mere existence of the White Sox pushed one or two Central teams into the playoffs at the end of the year.