Waters goes deep

The Royals power to their second win in four games so far in Cleveland thanks to the hot bat of Drew Waters. Two games left.

Drew Waters has played a month’s worth of games in the major leagues and has been worth 0.4 fWAR.

He proved his worth once again on Monday as his three-run home run was the difference in extra innings as the Royals pushed aside the Guardians 6-3. It was a majestic blast.

Waters, as you could probably tell from the lede, has impressed in his brief time in Kansas City. Especially of late. The spreadsheet doesn’t always deem that Waters appear, but over his last 10 games going back to September 18, he’s smashed four home runs with a .879 slugging percentage.

Acquired from Atlanta, where he had stalled as a prospect, Waters was immediately immersed in the Royals’ minor league hitting program. The conventional wisdom at the time of the trade where the Royals sent their competitive-balance pick to the Braves, was that he would need the rest of the year in at Triple-A and then probably some work in the offseason before he would reach the bigs. Waters wasn’t interested in that timetable.

Or perhaps, he just needed to make a few minor adjustments to make major progress. The difference in his production between organizations is stark. In 210 plate appearances for the Braves at Triple-A Gwinnett, Waters hit .246/.305/.393 with a 7.6 percent walk rate, good for an 83 wRC+, meaning he was 17 percent below league average when it came to producing as a hitter.

At Omaha, Waters had 143 plate appearances and hit .295/.399/.541 with a 14 percent walk rate. That’s a 149 wRC+, my friends. That’s quite a turnaround.

Whatever he unlocked in Omaha, he’s carried it with him to the majors. After Monday’s two-hit performance that included that go-ahead dinger, Waters is now hitting .261/.350/.523 with an 11.9 percent walk rate and a 144 wRC+.

Let’s just take a moment to appreciate the swing.

His Baseball America scouting report mentioned his “long levers,” but I’m not seeing it from this angle. I see a fairly compact and quiet, with good extension and a brisk follow-through. A large leg kick, but it looks effortless, really. The bat flip was plus, as well.

It’s an impressive debut that gives the organization plenty to consider this winter.

A few things to note about Waters and the small sample size of a month of games. The walk rate tends to stabilize around 120 plate appearances. Waters is at 101 with two games left, so he’s close to that mark. I’ll buy a double-digit walk rate from him based on what we’ve seen since he joined the organization. Whatever Drew Saylor and Alec Zumwalt and company have taught him, they have a willing pupil.

The strikeout rate above 32 percent (he whiffed in the two at bats where he didn’t get a hit) is concerning but not so much that it should preclude the team from giving him an opportunity in 2023. He’s always been a high strikeout rate kind of guy and historically, has seen that rate jump when he’s been promoted. Yes, that’s usually how it works as the pitching improves, but Waters did slice his strikeout rate from 36 percent in his first pass at Triple-A in 2019 to around 28 percent combined at that level for Atlanta and Kansas City this year.

Then there’s his BABIP which would seem elevated at .360. Waters has enough of that small sample mojo that his BABIP will highly fluctuate still from game to game. It jumped 13 points Monday. However, it’s worth remembering that Waters is generally a high BABIP kind of guy. He’s never had a BABIP below .341 in a full season. I wouldn’t use the artificial benchmark of .300 to decide whether or not Waters is “lucky.” He should be well over that mark, even in the majors.

And then there’s this secret ingredient.

Anne Rogers @anne__rogers

Drew Waters on the key to his HR surge: "Sal gave me some good tips. He told me I need to eat rice every day. So far when I eat rice, I've hit a home run." Salvy chimes in: "What did you eat for lunch today?" Waters: "Latino food. I need rice and beans." Salvy: "There you go."

Rice. It’s all about the rice.

This is all to say that, while it’s difficult to project a major league season based on 100 plate appearances, Waters is doing everything right in his audition. He’s a guy who can play all three outfield positions, but could have a long-term home in center.

It’s tempting to get too far out ahead, but Waters looks like a steal for the Royals and general manager J.J. Picollo. He’s serving up walks and dingers with a side of rice. Whatever works.

Vinnie Pasquantino swiped the first bag of his major league career on Monday. Salvy, as you would expect, was on the scene to help commemorate the moment.

Salvador Perez @SalvadorPerez15

20 Homers, 30 Doubles, 30 Stolen Bases and one miracle! @BwittJr @VPasquantino

Oh yeah, this Bobby Witt Jr. character…He’s just quietly put together an outstanding rookie campaign, hasn’t he? He’s not going to win the Rookie of the Year award (that’s for Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez to settle) but he will get some down-ballot consideration. A season with 20 home runs, 31 doubles and 30 steals is worth celebrating. And he’s just 22!

Now if he can just channel Drew Waters and bump his walk rate a few percentage points and you’ll have a future All-Star in the middle of this lineup.

The future remains bright. The challenge for the Royals is to harness that brightness.

From the future to the past…I wrote about Zack Greinke and his season winding down last week. I’ll go ahead and link to it here because the start in Detroit was almost a carbon copy of what he did against Cleveland. Down to the amazing defense.

If that was Greinke’s swan song with the Royals, he exits on an extremely positive note. A 3.68 ERA in 137 innings has to beat club expectations. He’s been fantastic in the rotation.

The old man can still pitch. The one thing he can’t do with regularity is go deep in games. Still, at the back of the rotation, if he can give you five or six innings of quality, there’s plenty of value in that.

Let’s do it again, Zack.

As Picollo settles into his role as the guy calling the shots from the front office, I remain confident that these next two games will be Mike Matheny’s final two games as the manager of the Royals. The only question in my mind isn’t if they’ll dismiss him, it’s when. Will they do it immediately after the game on Wednesday, or will they wait until a post-season type of press conference on Thursday before the playoffs start?

Time is of the essence here. We already know there will be openings in Chicago with the White Sox and Miami. There are interim managers in Texas, Philadelphia, Toronto and Los Angeles with the Angels. Then, there’s always a surprise vacancy. In other words, there’s going to be some action in the managerial carousel. The Royals will need to join the fray from the jump or they’ll risk losing their top candidates.

The Royals could clinch last place in the Central on Tuesday. They should be in the market for a new manager by Thursday.