The Royals squander opportunities (again) in falling to the Tigers (again!)

Cole Ragans shoved and Bobby Witt Jr. did his thing but the offense couldn't take advantage and the Royals fell to their third consecutive defeat.

It was a balk and a doink. It was those two moments, just seconds apart, that kicked the Royals in their collective groin on Tuesday, sending them to their second consecutive loss against the resurgent Tigers, third overall.

It was missed opportunities that brought the Royals to this point, squandering not one, but two chances to do some considerable damage with the bases-loaded.

Given the stakes and the timing, it feels safe to say that this 3-1 defeat in 10 innings was the worst loss of the season.

Let’s get to it by starting at the end.

Lucas Erceg, back out for the tenth after a successful ninth inning, opened the frame with a runner on second by attacking the zone against Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter got off a couple of good hacks, fouled off a few pitches, and grounded out to third for the first out.

The next batter was Parker Meadows. On the first pitch, this happened:

It was a temporary moment of madness from Erceg, looking back to the runner at second and not coming set before delivering the pitch. A balk was called immediately and the Manfred Man moved up to third.

This changed everything. The Royals now had to bring in their infield to prevent the go-ahead run from scoring. On the very next pitch, Meadows popped a ball up to shallow left. Look at the starting position of Bobby Witt Jr.

There are a couple of things to parse from this. First, had Witt been playing at normal depth, as he would’ve been had the Manfred Man still been at second, I believe he actually would’ve had a shot at making the catch. We’ve seen that kind of defensive wizardry from Witt on the regular. He’s exceptionally good at going back on the popups to shallow left. Instead, realizing he didn’t have a chance, he peeled off toward third.

The ball from Meadows left the bat at 65.1 MPH with a launch angle of 39 degrees. It traveled 208 feet with a bounce. This was reminiscent of a play Witt made back in June in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.

The popup that Witt caught off the bat of Andy Pages (and turned into a crazy 6-4-3 double play) left the bat at 63.5 MPH with a launch angle of 32 degrees, meaning it had less hang time than the Meadows popup on Tuesday. This Pages pop traveled 203 feet, just five feet less than Meadows’. These two pop flies look incredibly similar. With staggeringly different results because of the position of the shortstop.

Yeah, Witt totally could have caught that for the second out.

And then even if you think I’m wrong about that (reasonable people can disagree), thinking there’s no way Witt would’ve caught that, that’s fine. How about this…Had the Manfred Man been at second he wouldn’t have been able to score. Because of Witt’s defensive ability, he would’ve needed to have held up to make sure Witt didn’t make the catch. Hell, there’s a chance that had the runner held up and had the ball been just out of the reach of Witt, by the time the single dropped, the runner would’ve had to stick at second as Pham was coming in to pick up the ball.

The balk changed everything. It was an absolute killer. Instead of two outs and a runner on second, the Tigers grabbed the lead and ultimately the win.

The Royals found themselves in this position in the 10th for two reasons. First, Cole Ragans was brilliant.

Remember the concern about Ragans and his dip in velocity around the middle of the season? He pretty much put that to bed with this performance. The fastball was just dirty. And fast. Through his first four innings of work, the Ragans’ four-seamer was averaging 95.5 MPH, which was exactly in line with his seasonal average. Yeah, that average has dropped as the season progressed, but it’s good to see Ragans hitting that mark.

The changeup was averaging 84.9 MPH, which gave him a nice 10 MPH or so separation between the two. The change was straight lethal.

The fade to the right-handed batter is beautiful. Spencer Torkelson saw three pitches in this at bat: A fastball at 95 MPH on the inner half followed by two changeups at 84 MPH.

He’s dealing with the change in velocity and the fact the pitch is gliding away from him. This pitch above was even further off the plate than the previous one. He had no chance.

Ragans threw his change about 23 percent of the time on Tuesday. Tiger hitters swung at 17 of them (it’s a tantalizing pitch!) and whiffed on 10 of those swings.

Against left-handed hitters, Ragans mostly leans four-seam and slider. Entering Tuesday’s game, he had thrown a change to a leftie just 26 times this year with only a 17 percent whiff rate. He got two whiffs in a good eight-pitch duel against Parker Meadows in the fifth, including this one:

I like the euphemism of “pulling the string” on a changeup. That’s what I thought of when I saw this pitch. You think it should just breeze up to the plate, but it just kind of pumps the brakes.

Ragans piled up a few pitches early. The lone Detroit run came in the first two batters of the game—a hit by pitch followed by run-scoring double. But in the middle innings, Ragans was ruthlessly efficient. He got a bit wild at times, walking four, but the Tigers couldn’t square him up. He allowed only one hit after the third. Ragans went seven innings, allowing just that first inning run. He wasn’t his most overpowering, but he was damn strong.

The second reason the Royals were in the position of having to go to extra innings was because they were intent on squandering good scoring opportunities.

The Royals dropped some strong hints that they were ready to break out against Detroit starter Casey Mize in the third inning. Peep the exit velocities:

That was a nifty little two-out rally after Tommy Pham hit into that double play. The Michael Massey single brought home Witt and tied the game.

Yet after the third, it turned into just another night of missed chances on offense for the Royals. They put the leadoff man on in the fourth, but he was erased with another double play. They loaded the bases in the fifth with one out and hit into yet another double play. They loaded the bases with two outs in the sixth inning and came away with nothing to show for it. Nothing.

Once the Tiger bullpen turned to Beau Briske, Tyler Holton and Jason Foley, the Royals were even done making threats. Those three relievers combined for four hitless innings.

I’m going to go off on a tangent that may read as sour grapes, but I assure you I would feel the same way even if the outcome had been reversed: I absolutely hate the Manfred Man. Hate it. The gift runner on second base in extra innings is an anathema. Tuesday’s game was taut for a reason. The pitching absolutely ruled the day. Watching the later innings (and when the Royals were busy blowing scoring opportunities), it felt like a proper battle between two teams with playoff aspirations. Who would blink first? Which pitcher would make a mistake or two? Which hitter could be a hero?

Every ballgame is a unique story. It has its own pace and plotline. Sticking a runner on second because the commissioner hates baseball completely changes the complexion of what had once been a compelling game.

Baseball should lose the Manfred Man. Then it should lose Manfred.

What makes this loss sting even more (if that’s possible) is that it carries considerable fallout. Matt Quatraro gambled by sending Erceg back out for the disastrous tenth inning. On one hand, it makes sense. If Erceg can shut down the Tigers, the Royals have a runner on second to open their half of the tenth with Witt, Perez and Massey due up. You generally will take that scenario to bag at least one run. On the other hand, there’s always the chance that this will backfire. Which it obviously did. Erceg got in deep in the tenth and ended up throwing 35 pitches. One would imagine that he would not be available to throw on Wednesday.

Now Wednesday’s game has strong must-win vibes. The Royals have squandered starts from their aces and now will face off against the likely Cy Young award winner, Tarik Skubal.

Ok, let’s shift from the doom and gloom to something we can all get behind: The brilliance of Bobby Witt Jr.

Dunno about you all, but I was thinking that Detroit starter Casey Mize didn’t want to have anything to do with Witt. This was the pitch chart for the three times they faced. All three plate appearances ended with a walk.

To Mize’s credit, he did pop off a 3-1 fastball in the zone in the first inning that Witt fouled off. Gutsy. I suppose after that, he decided to just avoid the situation altogether.

However, just because you avoid something that doesn’t make the problem go away. Witt took advantage in the first.

That was Witt’s 30th stolen base of the season, making him a 30/30 man for the second consecutive season.

This is just an impressive accomplishment. Let’s start with the macro view: Witt’s 30/30 season is the 72nd time that’s happened in Major League Baseball. It’s the seventh 30/30 season from a player whose primary defensive position is shortstop. Now, he’s the only shortstop to have two of those seasons.

He’s also the sixth player in major league history to go back-to-back on 30/30 seasons.

Willie Mays - 1956 & 1957
Bobby Bonds - 1977 & 1978
Ron Gant - 1990 & 1991
Barry Bonds - 1995 & 1997
Vladimir Guerrero - 2001-2002
Alfonso Soriano - 2002 & 2003 and 2005 & 2006
Ryan Braun - 2011 & 2012

And, even more impressively, he’s the first player to ever post two 30/30 years in his first three seasons in the majors. What an accomplishment.

I feel like I’ve been a bit remiss mentioning some defensive highlights the last couple of nights. First, how about a tip of the cap to Michael Massey? I just thoroughly enjoy watching him field ground balls at second base. His silent connection with Bobby Witt Jr. around the bag is likewise delightful, especially when Massey is the first guy on the double play turn.

Then, there’s Freddy Fermin behind the plate. The dude is an absolute monster back there. He cut down Andy Ibañez attempting larceny on a straight steal. Fermin then gunned down Trey Sweeney on a pitch that bounced in the dirt which gave him enough confidence to try to take that base. Foolish. Fermin has now cut down 15 of 35 would-be thieves. He’s a one-man neighborhood watch. With a cannon.

James McArthur, who left Monday’s game with the trainer, hit the IL with a UCL sprain. The Royals are optimistic it won’t be “season-ending,” but like the injury to Chris Stratton, unless the Royals go deep into the postseason, I don’t see how it won’t be. In McArthur’s case, I understand that he’s not exactly a trustworthy member of that bullpen, but it’s gotta suck to be on a major league roster for an entire season and then land on the injured list with just under two weeks of games left with your team in the hunt for the postseason.

That said, McArthur was on the verge of pitching himself off the roster. He sports a 6.87 ERA since the All-Star Break. In just over 18 innings, opponents are hitting .321 against him with three home runs. Had he made it on the roster, there would’ve been no chance that he would’ve gotten into a high-leverage—or even a medium-leverage—situation. Steven Cruz takes his spot on the current active roster.

The Royals’ magic number is stuck on eight. I’m not as optimistic as I was feeling at the weekend, but they’re still in a position where they control their own destiny.

The Twins hung on to survive against Cleveland on Tuesday. The Orioles were steamrolled by the Giants. The Mariners were blitzed by the Yankees.

The cushion is getting thinner, but at least it’s still there. Wednesday’s game is kind of important.