Three runs is all they need

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Another ballgame against our friends from the Great White North, another 3-2 victory. This one was slightly different from Tuesday when the Royals bunched their runs together thanks from a gift from the Blue Jays to come from behind. On Wednesday, the Royals jumped out to an early lead, survived the early exit from their starter and rode the bullpen arms to another night of victory.

It was the fifth time in 2024 the Royals won while scoring three runs or fewer. You’ll recall from yesterday’s newsletter that the team accomplished that only seven times in 2024. It’s amazing what quality pitching will do for a ballclub. And the Royals’ arms are definitely are bringing the quality.

Let’s start with the starter, Alec Marsh. If you remember going back to my roster projections from before the start of the season, I eyed Marsh as a longshot contender to make this rotation, if he had a chance at all. In my mind, it was a two arm race between Daniel Lynch and Jordan Lyles for the role of fifth starter. Marsh impressed in camp and now, five starts into the young season, has continued his roll.

He didn’t make it out of the fifth inning—more on that in a moment—but while he was in the game, he kept the Blue Jays off balance with a clever mix of pitches.

The four-seamer is always going to be his primary pitch, but he does mix and match enough that he doesn’t lean on it too much. On Wednesday, it was a much more livelier pitch than we’ve seen for the most part this year.

That’s a nice pitch at 92 MPH in that location. A little bit of rise and run. The four-seamer had more horizontal break against the Jays than his average fastball, moving about two inches more.

What I was really focused on about Marsh was his pitch mix. On Wednesday, his primary pitch behind the four-seamer was his slider. The game before that, the slider was his fourth-most frequent offering. The game before that, it was his number two pitch. And the game before that…well, how about I just drop his pitch percentage chart from his first four starts.

That’s quite the alteration of the arsenal being deployed against opposing hitters. It’s keeping them off balance and it’s what I think is playing a key role in Marsh’s success. Of course, the stuff has to be good as well. Like this.

That was his only whiff on the slider on Wednesday. He normally gets a miss when the batter swings against the slider 37 percent of the time. What was happening against the Jays was that he was locating that pitch—along with his other offerings—really well.

He was working the edges, staying out of the middle and putting every pitch in just about every location. The four-seam was up, but he would also come low with it. The sinker is spotted all around the zone. The slider is mostly down and away to right-handed batters like you saw with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but he was also elevating it. This mixing of location is key to Marsh’s success.

That’s just a really nice pitch chart.

Marsh’s evening was cut short on a comebacker off the bat of Addison Barger who was making his major league debut.

That’s at 91 MPH off the bat and right on the forearm. I’m impressed that Marsh took that hit and had the presence of mind to grab the ball and then make that off-balance throw.

It looked awful, though. Something you hate to see, especially given how he’s made such great strides this year and has really settled into his role in the rotation. The good news is, it missed his elbow.

From Anne Rogers:

Then, the pain settled in. Marsh grimaced and held his right arm as Quatraro and a trainer jogged to the mound. It was clear quickly that Marsh needed to be taken out; he didn’t have any grip strength and was already feeling tightness.

Officially diagnosed as a right forearm contusion, Marsh said postgame that he feels sore but plans on “bouncing back and being OK.”

It sounds like Marsh has a nasty bruise and the seams left quite an impression, but a “forearm contusion” is better than a “broken ulna” or “shattered elbow.” My medical knowledge is only as good as Web MD and a random anatomy class I took in high school, so I’ll defer to the pros about whether or not Marsh will miss some time. We’ll learn more on Thursday as the bruise takes hold. I could see a scenario where Marsh would miss a start but avoid IL time. We’ll just have to wait and see. For now, I’m just relieved he didn’t suffer a truly serious arm injury.

With Marsh exiting early, it was the second game in a row the Royals would need 4.2 innings from their bullpen. And for the second game in a row, Matt Quatraro pulled the right levers at the right time.

Tuesday - 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO
Wednesday - 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 SO

On Tuesday it was Chris Stratton, John Schreiber and then James McArthur with the two-inning save. I didn’t mention it yesterday, but Quatraro going to McArthur for two at that moment was a masterstroke. It had been days since he had pitched and thanks to a timely double play, he was able to navigate those two innings on just 20 pitches.

Wednesday it was Angel Zerpa and then Schreiber, Stratton and McArthur. Zerpa is a bit of a highwire act coming out of the bullpen, but held strong to get the game to the three relievers who now are solidly in Quatraro’s Bullpen Circle of Trust.

After getting off to a bit of a wobbly start, the Royals’ bullpen has posted a 2.17 ERA since April 4. That’ll work.

The Royals scattered three runs across three different innings. The second run was gift-wrapped again as Barger, playing an unfamiliar position in his big league debut in left, misplayed a fly ball off the bat of Kyle Isbel. Isbel motored into third and scored on a Maikel Garcia single. This happened with two outs. Second night in a row the Royals capitalized on a Jays mistake and cashed in at least one run.

Garcia is coming alive. So, it seems, is Adam Frazier, who had a couple of nice ABs. Bobby Witt Jr. is continuing to do Bobby Witt Jr. things and Salvador Perez is a freak. It would be nice to get the entire lineup firing on all cylinders, but this is an opportunistic bunch.