Dueling aces: Ragans shines as the Royals take Game One

Cole Ragans shoved, Bobby Witt Jr. was clutch and the bullpen was nails as the Royals sieze the lead of the Wild Card series.

Only one player remains from the Royals last postseason run, but the new guys had no trouble fitting in right away. They picked up right where we left off the last time we saw this club in the postseason, with another victory.

In the first game of the Wild Card series, the Royals leaned into what made them so successful in 2024. It was a mix of tremendous starting pitching, solid—with at times—spectacular defense and a timely hit with runners in scoring position. Their best players stepped forward and delivered. It was just enough.

It was behind Cole Ragans’ dominant start and Bobby Witt Jr.’s big hit, the Royals grabbed a 1-0 victory in the Wild Card series against the Baltimore Orioles. The Royals recorded five hits—all singles. They walked once. And now they’re one win away from punching their ticket to the next round.

The postseason is a different animal. It sounds trite to make a statement like that, but how many times have we seen someone considered among the best pitchers of the game struggle on the October stage? Yeah, we’re all thinking of Clayton Kershaw, but there have been numerous guys who have thrown a Cy Young-quality season only for it to be washed away by one or two clunkers of a playoff start. Then, there’s the unknown of a relatively young guy making his postseason debut. You just never know.

As Cole Ragans stepped on the mound in the top of the first, I would describe my feelings as “uncertain.” Uncertain as to how Ragans would perform. Uncertain as to how Ragans would handle the pressure.

Dumb.

How would you describe what we saw from Ragans in the first? I’d describe him as adequately amped up. Here are the fifteen fastest pitches Ragans delivered on Tuesday afternoon in Baltimore. Note the inning where the overwhelming majority of these pitches were thrown.

Hell, I thought a statement was made on Ragans’ very first pitch of the day, a 97 MPH four-seamer to Gunnar Henderson.

Ragans didn’t actually knock the bat out of the hands of Henderson, but what a weird swing. Why not? Let’s say he knocked the bat out of his hands.

So Ragans was throwing smoke coming out of the gate. That kind of velocity doesn’t matter if he’s not locating. That certainly wasn’t an issue. Ragans’ command was immaculate in the first inning.

The lefty was absolutely peppering the zone with four-seamers. The pitches in the middle were when he was ahead in the count. Oriole batters were probably looking for something offspeed and off the plate in those 0-2 or 1-2 counts. Instead, Ragans challenged them with some gas. The most the Orioles batters could do was foul those pitches off.

Notice was served. Emphatically.

After the first, the Orioles became insanely aggressive at the plate. I don’t know if that was the game plan or if they just decided they were going to be challenged with four-seamers so they should just let it rip. Either way, six of the eight hitters Ragans faced in the second and third innings swung at the first pitch and put that pitch in play.

I guess you can’t blame the Orioles for swinging at the first pitch so often early in the game. If they take those pitches, they’re going to be strikes. This year, opposing batters hit .175 with a .206 OBP when Ragans started out with strike one. Damned if you swing, damned if you don’t.

Maybe there was something to that strategy as two of the four hits against Ragans came in this span, including a leadoff double from Cedric Mullins in the third. Ragans was just so overpowering, though, the Orioles couldn’t do anything with those runners.

After a couple of overpowering innings, the Mullins leadoff double was the first time the game felt a little on edge. After starting out the first inning with 97 MPH gas, he was down to around 95 MPH in the second. The four-seamer that Mullins banged off the wall in right came in at 93 MPH. Was it possible Ragans was so adrenalized in the first that he would burn through his fuel super early? (I’m remembering that while watching postseason baseball, one tends to ask a lot of questions.)

I noted all these batters who were first-pitch swinging in the second and third innings. Number nine hitter James McCann decided to prolong the battle.

McCann did a good job holding off on the high fastball, one of the few times it felt like Ragans wasn’t finishing his pitches. It didn’t matter.

Two GIFs, two bats removed from the hands of Baltimore hitters. Metaphor alert!

With two outs in the inning, Ragans gave up a first-pitch bomb to Jordan Westburg. It traveled 373 feet to dead left field. You’ll recall that three years ago the Orioles decided to enlarge that part of their ballpark. They just didn’t push the fences back a few feet. They made left field the equivalent of baseball’s Death Valley. It’s like 330 feet down the left field line and then the wall jumps back to 384 feet.

According to Statcast, that flyball is a home run in 28 ballparks. The Royals were playing in one of the two where it would stay in play. The margin for error was narrow there, but it was enough for Ragans.

Trouble came up again the in fifth, this time, it was self-inflicted. With one out, Ramón Urías hit a liner to left. It should have been caught by MJ Melendez in left, but he couldn’t pick up that the ball was tailing and overran it. It fell untouched and Urías had a double. Excellent job by center fielder Kyle Isbel to back up the play. His hustle kept Urías at second.

The next batter was Mullins, who clubbed that double in the third. He hit a soft liner back up the middle. Again, Isbel hustled and charged that hit, reaching it quickly enough to hold Urías at third.

It was the second time in five innings the Orioles had a runner on third. This time, there was just one out.

Welcome back, Mr. McCann. Ragans delivered three pitches. McCann swung at all three.

Low changeup followed by an elevated, inside four-seamer. Then the killshot of a curve.

The bend on that pitch is just insane. The whole sequence was designed to prevent McCann from making any kind of contact. He’s thinking that Ragans wants to get ahead and is looking fastball. Nope. Low changeup. That’s followed by that elevated fastball that he’s late on. One pitch up. One pitch down. One pitch a change. One pitch a fastball. Now McCann has to protect the zone and be ready for just about any pitch in the Ragans’ arsenal. That curve comes in looking like it’s going to hit the bottom of the zone. Then it just rolls off the table.

Ragans still needed to get one more out. This is how he faced off against Henderson for the third time.

He started Henderson off with a cutter for a called strike. From there, it was three consecutive elevated fastballs. That set Henderson up nicely for this pitch.

Here’s what Ragans said about that pitch. From Anne Rogers:

“In that spot, I’m trying to get it to the bottom of the zone. Don’t hang it. I threw a lot of fastballs today, especially early. So just trying to execute it down and away that time and get weak contact – not necessarily go for the punchie…But I got the punchie.”

Yes, he did.

While Ragans leans on his four-seamer and changeup, the slider is his third-most used pitch on average. It’s an offering Ragans throws around 13 percent of the time. On Tuesday, Ragans threw it only four times. Four! It was actually the second time Henderson saw the change. But after being set up with those high fastballs, there wasn’t any way Henderson was going to make contact on that pitch.

In fact, Ragans really leaned on that four-seamer. While he averages throwing it 41 percent of the time over the season, he will offer it around 50 percent of the time. This was the breakdown of his pitches on Tuesday.

It was a similar mix to what he threw against the Orioles in his second start against them in late April. That start was his worst outing of 2024. Why did it work this time? Baseball is a funny game, you know?

Ragans was cruised through six innings. We know his pitch count can get elevated, but the Orioles collective aggression at the plate meant that he was only at 80 pitches. At that point, I was thinking he could go another two innings. Perhaps only an inning would be needed from the bullpen.

And then Ragans was out of the game.

Word from the Royals was that Ragans’ left calf was cramping. After the game, we learned that it tightened up late in the sixth inning. He informed Matt Quatraro and the Royals turned to the bullpen.

What a pleasure to watch Ragans work in this Game One of the Wild Card series. He was in total command from the very first pitch. He navigated danger with aplomb. He straight-up dominated a very deep and strong lineup. It’s simplistic, but the Royals really need that start. They needed Ragans to keep the Orioles bats in check because we knew, that with Corbin Burnes on the mound, runs would be at a premium. Ragans delivered. What a trade from JJ Picollo to get him in the rotation.

I’m a bit of a curmudgeon (a bit?!?) when it comes to this expanded postseason, but the way the schedules broke this year gave us a couple of tasty pitching matchups in the AL Wild Card series. Before Ragans and Burnes took the ball in this game, in the early contest, the Tigers and Astros featured Tarik Skubal, who will be winning the AL Cy Young award, and Framber Valdez. Valdez could finish in the top five in the balloting.

Tom Tango published the latest from his Cy Young predictor tool ahead of the games on Tuesday. He notes there was a shift in methodology among the electorate around 2021 when Burnes won the NL Cy Young, so he breaks down the results under a “classic” formula and a “new” one. It’s a bit weedy, but he’s looking at a top five that looks something like this:

Skubal
Lugo
Ragans
Burnes
Valdez

Of course, Lugo goes into Game Two. I love how these rotations aligned to give us two fantastic baseball games.

Michael Massy led off the game with a single against Burnes. It felt like a positive start, but that quickly fell by the wayside. After that hit, Burnes retired the next 12 batters. Yuli Gurrel snapped the hitless skid with a leadoff single in the fifth, but he was promptly doubled up when Melendez hit a soft liner that Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle fielded right by the bag. Bad luck.

Through five, Burnes faced just one batter over the minimum.

In my post yesterday, I speculated on the Royals lineup and thought that Quatraro would have Maikel Garcia in at third. He’s looked lost of late, both at the plate and in the field, but I thought his defense at third would be important. That’s why he would be in the lineup.

Then, he delivered the plate appearance of his career.

A steady diet of sweepers and cutters away, away and away. Garcia did a fine job not expanding the zone and chasing. It helped that Burnes missed badly with his first two sweepers, giving Garcia the luxury of hitting on his terms. He fought off a couple of 3-2 pitches on the outer edge—pitches too close to take. Then, Burnes decided to jam one inside. Garcia checked his swing, ball four.

Of anyone in the lineup, the worst hitter to walk has to be Garcia. A walk is never good, but given the circumstances where Burnes was really dealing, it just felt like a pivotal moment.

Garcia, the team leader in steals, wasted no time in grabbing the extra 90 feet. He advanced to third on a groundball to second base from Massey.

Somehow the most important moments find the most important players. And those players often come through. We saw it in the ‘70s and ‘80s with George Brett. Is it possible we will see it again with Bobby Witt Jr.? I think so.

Clutchiness isn’t supposed to be a thing, but do you know what great players do? They show up in the big spots. That right there was a great player showing up in a big spot.

This was the third time Witt had stepped into the box against Burnes. In the previous two at bats, Burnes fed him a steady diet of cutters. Both times, Witt popped out. He was overmatched against the cutter. This is how Burnes attacked Witt his first three times up.

Do you think Witt was looking cutter that third time up? Damn straight. And he delivered.

With his bullpen pressed into service a little earlier than he imagined, Quatraro did well managing his relievers. First up was lefty Sam Long who retired the side in order. Long, like Ragans, features a four-seamer in the mid-90s, but his comes with less horizontal run. Enough of a different look I suppose.

Long was followed by Kris Bubic, the third lefty of the game. Bubic got the first two outs but struggled to get the third. He walked Henderson and allowed a soft single to Westburg. With runners on first and second and two outs, it was Lucas Erceg time.

Erceg. What a deal to get him to Kansas City. The Royals desperately needed a flamethrower in the back of that bullpen who could miss bats. That’s Erceg. He was pumping triple-digit heat and complimented that with a changeup with just insane amounts of run. I can’t decide what’s more impressive.

This pitch makes a U-turn. It’s looking like it’s going to run into the left-handed batter. Suddenly, it veers away. It short-circuits the hitter’s brain. It gives him the vapors. What filth.

That was the first out of the ninth after Erceg walked pinch hitter Ryan O’Hearn. One of the rare times a leadoff walk in the later innings doesn’t come around to bite you in the ass. It helps to have that fastball/changeup combo working.

The defensive highlight of the game was provided by Tommy Pham, who made a fantastic catch on a broken-bat flare from Ryan Mountcastle to lead off the second inning. It’s one of those ducksnorts that can be so deflating because Ragans made a good pitch, sawing off the bat of Mountcastle, but it looked a sure hit. I say that because the camera cut to center field where Isbel was tracking the ball but clearly was not making the catch. Suddenly, there was Tommy Pham swooping in to make the play.

The replays on the broadcast never gave us a good perspective on how far Pham had to run for that catch. I’m fairly certain that Hunter Renfroe would not have made that grab.

Defense is so important in these postseason series.

A couple of quick bits of miscellany to wrap this thing up. We have another game to watch in a few hours.

• Vinnie! We made it this far and haven’t mentioned the return of Vinnie Pasquantino. It was good to see him back in the lineup. He was 0-3 with a strikeout and a walk. Back in his familiar spot behind Witt in the lineup as the DH. I was kind of surprised Burnes went after Witt with Garcia on third in the sixth inning.

• The last three postseason games between the Royals and the Orioles have been decided by one run. The Royals have won all three.

• The Orioles now own a 10-game postseason losing streak. The Royals are responsible for five of those losses.

• The Royals won a postseason game by the score of 1-0 for the first time in franchise history.

• Isn’t it good to see Salvador Perez back in October?

Game Two is tomorrow with Seth Lugo taking the mound against Zack Eflin. First pitch is scheduled for 3:38 with the game airing on ESPN.