Twice the fun

Salvador Perez hit two home runs. James McArthur picked up a pair of saves. And the Royals won two very important ballgames against the Cardinals. Sweep!

Was it the best day of the season, or was it the BEST DAY of the season?

The Royals ripped through St. Louis on Wednesday with a certain fury. They took both ends of the day-night doubleheader, coming behind to take the matinee by a 6-4 score and following it up with an 8-5 drubbing in the nightcap.

One broom. Two wins. Sweep!

(I love this pic and post on social media it every time the Royals complete a series sweep. I grabbed it from Twitter way back when and have no idea who created this. I’d love to know who did this so I can given them proper credit. Any one know?)

We’ll start with game one, but damn if these entertaining games found storylines that wove through both victories. It was that kind of day.

As is this team’s offensive modus operandi, the bats slumbered through the first four innings of the day. While they slept, the Cardinals did a little yardwork of their own against Alec Marsh to build a 3-0 lead.

Don’t undersell the importance of the top of the fifth. Especially in the aftermath of everything that followed.

When the inning opened, the Royals had put one runner on base all afternoon—a Hunter Renfroe single with one out in the second inning. They were helping out Cardinals starter Andre Pallante, who needed only 42 pitches to cruise through his first four innings. He was breezing through the Royals’ lineup. It was a troubling start to the game.

Except I have to tell you, we’ve seen this type of game from the Royals’ bats frequently this year. The type of game where they barely show an offensive pulse in the early innings when suddenly, they’re wide awake. It’s like a shot of adrenaline, right through the bats.

Leading off the fifth, Refroe doubles. Freddy Fermin hits a tapper back to the mound that is well-placed and goes for a single. MJ Melendez clubs a double. Suddenly, the Royals are in business with runners on second and third and nobody out. The pressure in this situation, on the Royals, is now immense. It’s a fantastic opportunity. To not cash in both runners would be criminal. And potentially fatal to the team’s chances for the rest of the game. In the 2023 offensive environment (which would be the closest to what we have in 2024), a runner on second and third and no outs generally should score two runs in that inning. Or, to be more exact, 2.01 runs, according to the Run Expectancy Matrix. The Royals needed both runs to tie the game.

They got them. After Nick Loftin tapped back to the pitcher, Garrett Hampson split the gap. One swing, two runs. Tie game.

Garrett Hampson is like golf. He frustrates you 80 percent of the time—or maybe even more. Hack, hack, hack. Duff, duff, duff. But then, just when you’re about ready to chuck it all and go read a book, something beautiful happens and suddenly—suddenly!—you’re all in.

(I’m not saying I’m all in on Hampson. The guy has a 79 wRC+ for the season. Over the last month of games, he’s hit .159/.178/.273 which is good for a wRC+ of 17. I can just appreciate that he came through.)

It was just a well-disciplined at bat from Hampson in a crucial situation. He really needed to get the ball in the air to at least score one run. He looked at three pitches, was ahead in the count 2-1 and went down for that sinker to get between the outfielders.

To continue the Run Expectancy theme of the inning, the Royals now had a runner on second and one out. The Matrix says in that situation, teams average 1.21 runs. Alas. Maikel Garcia whiffed (while Hampson swiped third!) and Bobby Witt Jr. likewise went down swinging. It was an imperfect end to a promising inning. A tie game was a good result.

The Royals would untie the game just a couple of batters later because, your captain, Salvador Perez is a powerful man.

Look at the location of that pitch. And the velocity. For Perez to cover that offering and send it 424 feet is insane. Plus, it had a launch angle of 22 degrees which meant it got out of the yard like it was late for a table on The Hill. Mercy.

Imagine what Perez would do if he got a hanging breaking ball to punish instead of that fastball away. Actually, you don’t have to imagine. It happened. In the nightcap. And the result was thunderous.

This graphic using Statcast to map the trajectory of the baseball off the bat of Perez is equally insane.

A 35-degree launch angle and the ball traveled 438 feet. I love that this graphic concludes by saying it would’ve been a home run at 30 out of 30 ballparks. You don’t say. It was a suborbital blast. From Nick Kappel of the Royals PR department (and relayed by Jake Eisenberg on Twitter, it was the second time in Perez’s career he has gone deep in both ends of a doubleheader.

The Captain! After a hot start to the season, Perez struggled in June. He’s done a bit better this month, but those were his first home runs since he went yard on the last day of June against Cleveland. Maybe he’s getting locked in once again. A similar hot start to the second half of the season would certainly be welcome.

After Alec Marsh allowed his second home run of the game, he retired 11 in a row. In other words, he didn’t allow another baserunner. All told, Marsh worked six innings, allowed the three runs on two home runs, but surrendered just one other hit and one walk. He did all that while striking out eight. It was exactly the kind of start the Royals needed. Marsh kept them in the game until the bats stirred.

Nobody is comfortable with that bullpen protecting a one-run lead. The insurance runs were appreciated and, it turned out, mostly unnecessary. Will Smith set the Cardinals down in order in the seventh and Sam Long did his thing in the eighth. Smith, who was celebrating his 35th birthday on Wednesday, had a nice bounce-back outing after struggling his last time out against Tampa. Indeed, this was Smith’s first appearance since July 4 and only the second time he’s been on the bump this month.

Long continues to impress. He had a bit of a rough patch at the end of June, allowing runs in three of his last four appearances that month, but seems to have found his footing in July. He’s allowing baserunners, which is dangerous, but getting some whiffs and stranding most of those runners.

James McArthur, who was busy in both ninth innings, closed the game out. Not especially tidy as he allowed a home run to Paul Goldschmidt and then gave up a two-out single to bring the tying run to the plate. No sweat this time as he got Lars Nootbar to line out to center to end the game.

By the time the game wrapped, every Royal in the starting lineup except for Nick Loftin either scored a run or drove in a run. Perez and Renfroe each had two hits. Perez and Hampson each drove in two runs. It was about as well-balanced an attack as you could find.

Keep this Win Probability graph in mind as the second game gets underway. The Royals flipped the first game in the fifth inning and once Salvy gave them the lead in the sixth, took it to the bank.

Fine. I’ll just give it all away. I can’t help myself. Here’s the Win Probability graph of the second game of the doubleheader:

The Cardinals jumped out to an early lead once again. It didn’t take as long for the bats to get fired up, but once they did, they were relentless.

The Royals scored one in the third, two in the fourth, two in the fifth, one in the sixth and one in the seventh. They took the eighth inning off because all that scoring can wear you out. They put up their final run of the night in the ninth. Eight runs all told on 12 hits. A steady drumbeat of offense that’s reflected in the graph above. I hope it felt like torture to the Best Fans In Baseball.

Melendez started things off with a leadoff home run in the third to tie the game at one. Melendez’s box score is identical for both games: Four at bats, one run, one hit and one RBI. Melendez brought home the Royals’ first run in both the day game and the nightcap.

That Run Expectancy Matrix was getting a workout with runners on second and third and no outs. It happened again for the Royals, this time in the fourth inning. Witt led off with a single and advanced to third on a Vinnie Pasquantino double. So two runs, right? Book it.

Perez hit a sac fly to break the tie and two batters later Renfroe brought home the inning’s second run. This was a day where it felt like the Royals capitalized on every single opportunity.

Renfroe, by the way, has really come alive since returning from the IL. He was heating up before his foot injury, but since rejoining the lineup he’s hit .283/.377/.478 in 53 plate appearances. That’s good for a 140 wRC+. Oh, those numbers were before the games on Wednesday. Combined, he went 3-8 with a run scored and an RBI.

The runs just kept coming. Adam Frazier singled to bring home Kyle Isbel. Frazier went to second on the throw home and made a heads-up break for third when he realized no one was covering that base. Witt then brought Frazier home on a sac fly. Perez hit his homer in the sixth. Isbel walked to open the seventh, went to third on a Witt single and scored when Pasquantino singled.

It was just relentless. You can’t blame the Best Fans for abandoning ship at some point. By the end of the game the “Let’s go Royals!” chants were audible on the broadcast. Do the Royals truly need a downtown stadium if they already own the yard to the east?

Here we go again with the Run Expectancy Matrix! While the Royals were cashing in their opportunities, the Cardinals squandered theirs. With the Cardinals trailing 7-4, Angel Zerpa, who pitched a clean sixth inning in relief of starter Michael Wacha, gave up a leadoff single to Dylan Carlson to start the seventh. Carlson went to third on a double by Brendan Donovan.

With the tying run at the plate and nobody out, this was another pivotal moment. Matt Quatraro called to John Schreiber to get out of the inning.

That’s an interesting gambit. Schreiber has really scuffled the last couple of months. Going back to an outing on May 18 when he allowed a run to Oakland, Schreiber has thrown 14.1 innings and allowed 17 runs, 15 earned. Opponents are hitting .343/.421/.478 over that stretch. He just hasn’t been good. Or dependable.

Yet there he was in a key situation on Wednesday night. The Cardinals were primed to climb back into this game to avoid the sweep. Schreiber got Willson Contreras to ground to short for the first out. That brought the run home from third. And then Schreiber went to work.

First, he made Alec Burleson look ridiculous. And late.

Then he made Goldschmidt look silly.

Allowing just one run was probably the best-case scenario given that situation. Once Schreiber got through that mess, you had to like the Royals’ chances to bring the victory home.

Still two innings to go at this point. The eighth belonged to Kris Bubic who once again looked sharp in his second major league outing since his return from Tommy John surgery. As I was watching the game roll along, I figured he’d be the guy for the ninth. He needed just 10 pitches (seven strikes) to handle three outs, for sure he’d come back for more.

Quatraro had other plans. McArthur, after saving the first game, was back for another. No home run this time. Just a lousy leadoff single to Masyn Winn. From there, three outs and ballgame.

Again from Jake Eisenberg, McArthur was the seventh pitcher to earn a save in both games of a doubleheader.

And with that, the Royals swept the Cardinals. You have to love it. Not just because they’re alleged rivals. But because any time you can roll into an opponent’s stadium and take two games in one day, it’s worth celebrating. It was a very good day.

Central Issues

Twins 1, White Sox 3
Twins 3, White Sox 2

While the Royals broke out the brooms against the Cardinals, the Twins could only manage a split against the Hapless White Sox. Erick Fedde continued his strong season in the first game, throwing five shutout innings. Luis Robert Jr. hit a two-run home run. Michael Kopech secured his ninth save with an Immaculate Inning in the ninth.

The Twins fell behind in the nightcap but solo home runs from Brooks Lee and Carlos Correa tied the game in the sixth. Ryan Jeffers drove in the go-ahead run in the seventh. The Twins bullpen went four innings and allowed just a single baserunner.

Cleveland 4, Detroit 5

The Tigers jumped on Guardians starter Tanner Bibee for two runs in the first and two more in the third as Reece Olson tiptoed around danger of his own, allowing three runs in the first three frames. But Cleveland could never catch up. Andy Ibañez provided an insurance home run in the eighth that came in handy as a Guardian rally in the ninth fell short.

About as good a night you can have for the Royals as they pick up a game on Minnesota and a game and a half on Cleveland. Oh, the A’s beat the Red Sox which means the Royals will either be a game back in the Wild Card race when they get to Boston on Friday or they’ll be tied.

This upcoming weekend series is massive.