Royals roster projection - final version

Clarity has arrived.

One week. That’s all that’s left between now and Opening Day. The end of winter is in sight. Baseball is nigh.

As such, it’s time for my final installment of a roster projection for Opening Day. Honestly, there’s been little to no intrigue to this exercise this spring. It seems like the competition for spots are found at the ends…Fifth starter, last bullpen arm, final bench bat. The only interesting question (for me, at least) is how manager Matt Quatraro and his staff will deploy the players defensively. At this point, that’s anyone’s guess.

Before we start, here’s the manager on the decisions around the roster battles as we move to the final week before the season opens:

We're gonna be taking this down to the wire. I mean that's that's a credit to the guys and how well they've played and what they bring to the table and that versatility that we're talking about is nice. But it also complicates things in some ways because you're trying not only to put guys out there that have the ability to hit but how do they complement each other, right? And so the handedness is part of it The pinch-hitting ability, the on-base ability, the base-running ability…all of those things

We have to try to factor in which one is gonna make us incrementally better.

With that in mind, here’s how I see the 26-man roster shaping up for Opening Day.

Starters

Cole Ragans
Seth Lugo
Michael Wacha
Kris Bubic
Michael Lorenzen

Ragans is the Opening Day Guy. Lugo is behind him. 1A and 1B, if you will. Wacha, who looked good in action on Wednesday against the San Francisco Giants, slots into the third position. That’s how it’s been pretty much all winter. Lorenzen is also here, but he’s in the fifth position. I’ll explain as Bubic gets the final open spot ahead of Daniel Lynch IV.

I have Bubic as listed as the fourth starter so the Royals can avoid going with back-to-back southpaws when the rotation flips back to the start. It’s worth noting that Bubic is scheduled to start Thursday’s game, with Lorenzen set to go on Friday in the split-squad game against the Mariners.

Relievers

Lucas Erceg
Carlos Estévez
Hunter Harvey
Sam Long
Daniel Lynch IV
John Schrieber
Chris Stratton
Angel Zerpa

The last time I attempted this exercise, I had nine relievers on my roster because I couldn’t decide how the Royals would handle the loser of the battle to be the fifth starter. I’m wondering less now that Carlos Hernández has absolutely stunk up the Cactus League this spring.

Here’s the list of probable pitchers for the next four Cactus League games, along with the pitchers who threw on Wednesday:

Wednesday - Michael Wacha, Hunter Harvey, John Schreiber, Lucas Erceg, Daniel Lynch IV
Thursday - Kris Bubic, Carlos Estévez, Chris Stratton, Sam Long
Friday 1 - Michael Lorenzen, Hunter Harvey, John Schreiber, Daniel Lynch IV
Friday 2 - Cole Ragans, Angel Zerpa, Ross Stripling
Saturday - Seth Lugo, Carlos Estévez, Chris Stratton, Sam Long

There’s one name conspicuous by its absence. Yep. Carlos Hernández.

Hernández is out of options, so the guess here is the Royals will keep him until the absolute last minute and then try to pass him through waivers to get him to the minors. Early in the season, it’s about pitching depth and holding on to as many guys as possible. Now, I’m not saying that Hernández would be effective if he made his way to Kansas City. I think that ship has sailed. However, there is a universe where the Royals would want him to remain in the organization to be called up in an emergency-type situation. Yet pitching is always in demand, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a bottom-feeding team who just needed innings took a flyer if Hernández were to hit the waiver wire. He’s not getting game action because, last-minute injuries aside, he’s not going north with the team.

That means Chris Stratton makes the club. What’s the difference between Stratton and Hernández? About $3.3 million. It’s cynical, but it’s the way the game works. The Royals are on the hook for $4.5 million for Stratton this season. They’ll want to squeeze something out of that commitment. Anything. They will use at least a month to try.

Then that brings us to Lynch, who looks to be on the outside of the rotation. I’ve vacillated between placing him in the bullpen in a roster projection or in Omaha to remain stretched out as a starter. I now believe the Royals keep him as a third lefty option in the bullpen. A clue can be found on probable pitchers I listed above. Lynch threw a single inning on Wednesday and is scheduled to throw again on Friday. That’s the schedule of someone getting ready to pitch out of the bullpen.

Quatraro, thought, warns us not to read too much into this:

Well at this point in the spring, you know we're gonna have him work out of the bullpen a couple of times this week just because we know how versatile he is, and it's something we have to have we have…to be able to keep our options open for him to go either way.

No decisions have been finalized yet on the roster, but at this point, we need to see him do that because we know he can start. He's been starting all spring and we need to transition a little bit for this week.

Decisions may have not been finalized, but it’s not difficult to figure out what’s going on.

Catcher

Freddy Fermin
Salvador Perez

To quote David Byrne, same as it ever was.

Infield

Cavan Biggio
Maikel Garcia
Jonathan India
Nick Loftin
Michael Massey
Vinnie Pasquantino
Bobby Witt Jr.

This spring, Jonathan India has played four games at second base, five games at third and six in left field. Michael Massey has played seven times at second and five times in left. Maikel Garcia has played six games at third, two at short and five in center field.

You figure out the defensive alignment.

Nick Loftin gets one of the backup spots. He’s had a crazy productive spring with a 22 percent walk rate while hitting .429/.556/.607. I hate that I dropped Cactus League stats here because…/waves hands/ it’s Arizona and Spring Training and all that. Still, he’s done everything that’s been asked of him and more. That gets him a spot. Can he be a guy who gets a game or two a week? We’re going to find out. Perhaps the biggest issue here is the defensive reps will be difficult to find with the above trio playing in front of him.

The other backup spot goes to Cavan Biggio. He’s walked eight times in 36 plate appearances and been hit by a pitch an additional three times. That will get you a .444 OBP.

It’s between Biggo and fellow non-roster invitee Harold Castro for that 26th spot. Both are left-handed hitters. Both can play just about any defensive position on the field. Both have primarily been second basemen. Castro will get you a little more pop. Biggio gets on base at a better clip. I think that on-base-ability is the deciding factor in getting Biggio on this roster.

Outfield

Dairon Blanco
Kyle Isbel
MJ Melendez
Hunter Renfroe

This roster—if it comes to pass—means Nelson Velázquez and Nick Pratto will be exposed to waivers. Again, the writing has been on the wall for some time with both. Pratto, an outstanding defensive first baseman, has been squeezed out by Pasquantino and the up-and-coming Jac Caglianone. Velázquez has been passed on the organizational outfield depth chart by Joey Wiemer, who I suspect will be the first man up if the Royals need to add an outfielder. And Drew Waters is still hanging around.

Blanco was slowed by an Achilles injury early in camp but has been getting regular work this last week. As long as his legs are healthy, he’ll be ready for that late-inning pinch-running role.