The call stands: Replay remains broken
Over the weekend, the starters did their job and the bats did just enough, but a defective replay system proves costly as the Royals split the series with the White Sox.
The flaws in baseball’s replay system are myriad and have been from the very beginning. Replay cost the Royals a run on Saturday. It was decisive in the loss on Sunday.
One of the issues is that the system takes into account the call on the field. Sometimes, as it would appear on both Saturday and Sunday in Chicago, the call is blatantly incorrect. Other times, the umpire is simply guessing. (Hello, Ángel Hernández!) Never mind that. In order for replay to get closer to the way it was envisioned is to simply ignore the umpire’s call. Come at it from an independent angle. The replay official isn’t then looking for evidence that may or may not exist. They should be using their judgment based on the available angles. It’s like those old commercials on This Week In Baseball…You make the call.
Another huge issue with replay is the camera positioning. They are using broadcast cameras placed around the ballpark, sometimes in areas that don’t give optimal angles. You can’t take every potential play or situation into account when setting those up, but you can certainly do better. MLB needs to spring for dedicated high-speed cameras strategically placed where they can actually assist the replay review crews. They have plenty of cash to upgrade the tools. If we’ve learned anything from this weekend on the South Side of Chicago, the positioning of the cameras at Guaranteed Rate Field is less than helpful when it comes to checking a call at home plate.
In both instances over the weekend, the home plate umpire is in the only position he assume in preparation to make the call, given the situation. In both instances, he position was less than ideal. And in both instances, the supporting camera angles were inadequate so the definitive call could not be applied. The only thing the replay official could do in New York was shrug his shoulders and say, “Good enough. I guess.”
Is that what we want from a replay system where the stated objective is to “get the call right?”
More importantly, does replay always “get the call right?”
The answer, for me at least to both questions, is no. Which means replay is doing a massive disservice to the game.
After the loss, manager Mike Matheny went off on the system that cost his team a win and was justifiably angry.
“If we’re going to use video replay, there needs to be some accountability. I just walked in here and had two different camera angles with this guy out. Tagged before he even touched the plate. It was very obvious. So I don’t know what they’re doing, if they’re backing each other up, whatever it is, it’s wrong.”
Can’t say I disagree.
Bullpen blunder
Of course, the Royals wouldn’t have been in position hoping replay would deliver them into extra innings if Wade Davis hadn’t surrendered the tying run in the bottom of the ninth.
Davis allowed a barreled double to Tim Anderson to start the frame. After Adam Eaton sacrificed him to third, Davis served a first-pitch, center-cut cutter to Yoán Moncada.
Tasty.
After José Abreu was hit by a pitch, Yermín Mercedes came up with runners on first and second and did this.
I mean, that’s just impressive that he can even put the bat on a pitch thrown in that location. But to take it the other way for a single? Insane. As they say in Chicago these days, Wade Davis was just Yermínated.
Not so fast! Witt Merrifield delivered a strike to Cam Gallagher at home and they cut down Moncada at the plate. Game (momentarily) saved.
Then three pitches later it was over.
The 2021 version of Wade Davis is not the same as the 2015 version. He entered Sunday’s game with a 6.59 ERA in 13.2 innings of work this year with six walks, 14 strikeouts and 13 hits allowed. Prior to being tasked to preserve a one-run lead, Mike Matheny had entrusted Davis with a lead in a close game just three other times.
I strongly dislike being a bullpen apologist for Matheny and had probably the same reaction many of you did when seeing Davis enter the game on Sunday. But the injuries to Kyle Zimmer and Jacob Hahn continue to impact how the manager is using his bullpen. That’s why Greg Holland pitched his way into and out of a jam in the eighth. And that’s why Davis got the ball in the ninth.
Favored late inning relievers Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow had been used on back to back days (both totaling over 40 pitches) and were unavailable. Jakob Junis had another difficult outing on Friday as a starter and has probably pitched himself out of the Bullpen Circle of Trust for the time being.
The best options were probably Tyler Zuber, who has filled the role of fireman for Matheny, or Ervin Santana who continues to impress.
While I’ve praised Matheny for stepping outside bullpen orthodoxy in his generally creative use of his relievers, his reasoning for using Davis in that situation was disheartening.
“We had a number of guys down that weren’t available or you would’ve already seen them. And go with guys who got us there before…Have a guy who’s been there and done that and finished games, that means a lot in this league.”
That may mean a lot, but it doesn’t matter if those days have passed by.
Davis was responsible for some of the greatest moments in Royals’ history. It’s difficult watching him struggle at this point in his career. Those past accomplishments aside, if the Royals continue to carry him on the roster, he needs to be moved even further down the pecking order of opportunity in the bullpen. Based on his previous handling of the relievers, you would think Matheny would be aware.
Switching off the power
After plating four of the five runs in Saturday’s victory via the home run and five of six runs in Friday’s victory in the nightcap of the doubleheader on the long ball, the Royals decided to go unplugged on Sunday. What resulted was yet another afternoon of productive outs leading to missed opportunity after missed opportunity.
In the first inning, the Royals put runners on first and second with one out. They were able to scrape together a run when a passed ball allowed the runners to move up 90 and Salvador Perez knocked a sacrifice fly.
In the fourth inning, the Royals put runners on first and second with one out. They couldn’t advance the runners any further.
In the fifth inning, the Royals got a leadoff walk. They couldn’t advance the runner any further.
In the sixth inning, the Royals got a leadoff single. They couldn’t advance the runner any further.
In the seventh inning, the Royals put runners on first and second with no outs. Nicky Lopez sacrificed the runners to third and second. Whit Merrifield drove in a run with a single. Carlos Santana followed with another sacrifice fly. I will forever remain puzzled at the eagerness an MLB manager will have to give away an out when his team is so clearly having issues stringing together hits. Even though you can make the argument the strategy worked in this inning, bunts aren’t the way to go.
In the eighth inning, the Royals got a leadoff walk from Salvador Perez. Yes, you read that sentence correctly. They pinch ran with Jarrod Dyson who was picked off and caught stealing.
For the final tally, that’s six hits, all singles with the runs scoring on one of those singles and two sacrifice flies.
The Royals are now tied for the league lead in sac flies at 14 with Houston and San Diego. It doesn’t really mean anything, other than it’s just a frustrating offensive trend in this young season. As I’ve documented here, it feels like the Royals come oh, so close to breaking out but settle instead for the productive out which, while nice, effectively ends the threat.
On the flip side, the abundance of sacrifice flies means the Royals are one of the better teams in the league when it comes from getting runner home from third with less than two outs. They’ve been successful in scoring that runner a little over 60 percent of the time.
They’re well above average when it comes to both creating and cashing in on those chances. All runs are important, so it’s good to see them taking advantage of any opportunities they create, even if it feels like there should be a few more runs on the board at times.
With the outburst of home runs in the last couple of wins, it feels like that’s the way most of their crooked numbers are happening. Several years ago at Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan came up with a whimsical stat he coined the Guillen Number. Named after then-White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, it was a percentage of a team’s runs scoring via the home run. It’s difficult to get a feel for perspective given the evolution of both the physical baseball and the way the game is played, but to this point, the Royals Guillen Number is sitting around 35 percent. Given the big bats in the middle of the lineup, that doesn’t feel so out of line.
Speaking of home runs…
Quadrangular interlude
We need to take a moment to appreciate the magisterial powers of Salvador Perez on a 96 mph heater up and out of the zone on Saturday.
I mean…what? That’s just brute strength to get that pitch over the fence.
Just for fun, I visited Baseball Savant (as one does) to see how many home runs Perez has hit off pitches in that general location in his career. It’s based off MLB Gameday, so it encompasses the right and upper halves of the area off the plate. Perez has hit 10 home runs on pitches in that zone in his career.
Saturday’s dinger is the four-seam fastball that is the highest and furthest to the right.
I mean, hang this in the Louvre.
Stretching out the starters
If there was a positive from the weekend it would be the work of the starting rotation. Brad Keller went five innings in the first game of Friday’s doubleheader (which is basically seven innings in real baseball), so the bullpen was only required to go two innings to put the finishing touches on the victory, snapping the 11-game losing streak.
It wasn’t exactly vintage Keller—there were too many balls hit in the air—but he was able to limit the extra base hits to just a Zack Collins double and was only touched for a pair of sacrifice flies for the scoring.
On Saturday, Mike Minor threw what was easily his best start of 2021, going seven full innings and allowing just two hits and two walks against seven strikeouts. The change was lethal for him, generating a 35 percent CSW%. He also avoided hard contact for the most part, but when he did his defense, most specifically Jarrod Dyson in left with a couple of nifty grabs.
In his seven starts prior to Saturday, Minor had posted a Game Score greater than 52 in just one start—a 5.2 inning effort against the Tigers last month where he struck out a season-high nine was good for a Game Score of 60. His Game Score on Saturday was 74.
It was Brady Singer’s turn to pitch into the seventh on Sunday and while he wasn’t able to complete the inning, it was nevertheless a fantastic outing. Singer once again eschewed his change (except for one pitch according to Baseball Savant) and went entirely sinker/slider.The sinker, in particular, had some lovely arm-side fade. Even late into the game.
The lone mistake Singer made on the afternoon was delivering a cement-mixer slider to Adam Eaton that he clubbed into the stands. Otherwise, it was another impressive start from the young right-hander.
So despite using Davis in a high-leverage situation and getting worked over by an inadequate replay system, there were positives to be found in the weekend series in Chicago. Not the least of which were snapping a brutal 11-game losing streak and splitting the four-game set with the Sox.
Onward!
Central issues
Cubs 5, Tigers 1
Kyle Hendricks tossed eight innings of one-run ball, striking out eight. On the offense, Ian Happ went 3-4 with a homer, a double and two runs scored.
The Cubs took two of three from the Tigers.
A’s 7, Twins 6
Seeking another unique way to lose, the Twins blew a 4-1 lead in the fifth, tied it in the eighth and ultimately lost in the ninth on a strikeout that bounced away from catcher Ben Rortvedt allowing Ramon Laureano to score.
The A’s took two of three from the Twins.
Cleveland 2, Mariners 3
J.P. Crawford’s bases-loaded single off Shane Bieber in the third provided the difference for the Mariners. Behind spot-starter Robert Dugger, Seattle’s bullpen threw six innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts in securing the win.
Bieber saw two impressive streaks end: His streak of 40 games pitching at least five innings and his streak of 20 games with at least eight strikeouts.
The Mariners took three of four from Cleveland.
The White Sox have used five wins over the Royals in the last week and a half to secure their spot atop the division. It has also catapulted them to the best record in baseball.
Up next
The Royals are off Monday before heading home for a brief, five-game set. First up is the Brewers for two before playing those Tigers again over the weekend. As of this writing the Royals have not announced their starters for the next series.