Seven numbers that tell the story of the Royals bullpen in 2021

Remember back in April when it felt like the relievers would be a strength of this Royals team? While there have been some individual bright spots, they've collectively struggled to meet expectations.

Finally. Our long All-Star break is coming to an end. The Royals are back in action at The K tonight, going almost a week between games. Maybe a little rest will do the team some good.

It’s the perfect time to finish up my midseason look at the club through several key numbers. You’ve certainly been following along, right? Just in case, here are links to the previous entries.

- Nine numbers that tell the story of the Royals offense in 2021.

- Six numbers that tell the story of the Royals starting pitching in 2021.

So that leaves the relievers. Lucky them.

4.91

That’s the collective ERA for the relievers in the Royals bullpen.

You may recall that the starter’s ERA stands at 5.38. So while you may be tempted to point to the bullpen as a strength of an underperforming club, I’m not so certain about that. Of course, we also know from Tuesday’s entry that with the starters refusing to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis, the cracks are beginning to show in the foundation of the bullpen.

With Scott Barlow’s most recent implosions, he and Jake Brentz are tied for best bullpen ERA at 2.95. Kyle Zimmer and Josh Staumont reside in the 3s. Greg Holland is pushing toward a 5.

Here are the Royals’ relievers who have appeared in at least five games out of the bullpen this summer.

You can see how they can dominate one night and implode the next. Inconsistency is its hallmark.

.136

That’s the batting average against Jake Brentz’s changeup.

It seems kind of weird to highlight Brentz’s change when it’s his third most thrown pitch and he features a smokin’ fastball and wipeout slider. But good lord, don’t sleep on the change.

Brentz has whiffed 45 batters this year, here’s how they’ve broken down by pitch and as a percentage of outcomes of said pitch.

I mean, all of his offerings are good, when he’s throwing strikes. The 15.4 percent walk rate is what precludes him from any serious closer conversation, but if he can figure out that control…watch out.

.445

That’s the average Leverage Index for Wade Davis.

Leverage Index is a measurement that you can find at Baseball-Reference that indicates the amount of pressure a pitcher sees in his outing. Anything greater than 1 indicates above-average pressure. Davis’ low aLI indicates that he’s not a trusted reliever in Mike Matheny’s bullpen. That’s not a bad thing.

We all know that. It’s just that these kinds of numbers help illuminate what’s actually happening in the bullpen. Davis has pitched in 22 games and in 16 of those outings, has appeared in a situation defined as “low leverage.” His most common inning to enter the game is the ninth. Basically, Matheny is using Davis as the final guy in what is typically a string of relievers in a blowout. He is probably the least trusted arm in the bullpen.

What I’m getting at is that while Davis hasn’t been an asset in the way we would all want, he’s still providing something of a service in just getting the blowouts over with. Let a veteran soak up that punishment over a younger player who could actually contribute something someday. He’s currently on the IL with a forearm strain. It will be interesting to see how the Royals handle his return.

25

That’s the number of runners Kyle Zimmer has inherited when he’s entered a game.

That’s the most on the Royals in 2021, giving Zimmer the distinction of being Matheny’s fireman of choice.

Plus, the 25 inherited runners is the 12th most in the majors to this point. (Steve Cishek has entered with 44 inherited runners, the most in the majors by far. Lordy.) Of those 25, just eight have scored, giving Zimmer a 32 percent rate of inherited runners scoring. That’s neither good nor bad. It’s right in line with the league average of 35 percent.

13

That’s the number of times Scott Barlow has pitched in back-to-back games.

As you recall from Wednesday’s edition (and you know, from watching the Royals all season) the lack of depth from the starting rotation has created something of a crisis in the relief corps. Barlow has pitched magnificently for the club this summer but hit a speed bump in his last two appearances before the break.

Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that Barlow gave up five runs and whiffed just one batter in his last two outings. Those appearances came immediately after Matheny went to Barlow three consecutive games—including the 15-1 blowout in Boston—to open the month of July.

The good news is, with the rainout in Cleveland on Sunday, it automatically presented Barlow and the rest of the relievers another day of rest. He last pitched a week ago Thursday. We’ll see if the rest will rejuvenate him. He’s going to be a necessary asset in the Royals’ bullpen. Because when he’s right…

Mercy.

21.1%

This is Greg Holland’s HR/FB rate.

If the season were to end today, it would be the highest of his career. He’s allowed eight home runs total in 35 innings. The home runs allowed are already a career-high. He’s the new Ian Kennedy.

In the best of times, Holland has sported a fairly large ground ball rate. He’s had seasons—like in 2020–where he’s gotten a grounder in nearly half of the balls put in play. This year, that rate has plummeted to 38.6 percent. So he’s allowing more line drives that are going for base hits and more fly balls that are flying over outfield walls. It’s not the combination you want coming out of the bullpen.

I was bullish on the Holland signing ahead of 2020 because in the three previous seasons he had pitched since his recovery from Tommy John surgery, he had been unable to string together a full season of quality appearances. He would be good for a stretch, but then the wheels would fall off. Sometimes at the start of the season. Holland has been fairly inconsistent thus far in 2021, but over his last 11 appearances, he’s really scuffled with an 8.71 ERA and four home runs allowed in just over 10 innings. The 2020 season was the perfect length for Holland, but now, in 2021…not so much.

It’s going to be difficult for Matheny to count on Holland going forward.

-1.6

That’s the amount in mph Josh Staumont has lost on the velocity of his four-seamer from 2020. His average four-seamer was 98 mph in 2020. This year it’s down to 96.4 mph.

Staumont opened the year the way we would expect. Firing the sinker close to triple digits with the four-seamer not far behind. But in his appearance on April 18, his sinker velocity dropped almost 4 mph. He recovered some of that in his immediate outings after that, but it’s been a slight decline since then.

Another interesting takeaway from the chart above is that there’s a stretch from mid-May to July where he completely abandoned his sinker.

Staumont has the potential to be a weapon in the back of the bullpen. His walk rate is down, but so are the whiffs. And some of that has to do with his decline in velocity and lack of trust in his sinker.