Living on the razor's edge and coming out on top

Brady Singer makes a strong start while Bobby Witt Jr. ignites the offense. The Royals rally late to take the game, and the series, from the Marlins.

It was looking grim. It was actually looking worse than grim. Unimaginable was more like it. The Royals were four outs from losing two of three to the Miami Marlins, the second-worst team in the National League.

This was happening despite rolling out dominant starting pitching over the three games. On Monday, Cole Ragans went six innings, striking out 11 and allowing just one run. On Tuesday, Seth Lugo tossed six innings of shutout baseball, striking out eight. As the eighth inning rolled around on Wednesday, Brady Singer had finished 7.1 innings of one-run ball, striking out five. Combined, the Royals starters put together 19.1 innings. They allowed 11 hits. They walked six. They allowed just two runs.

On Wednesday in the eighth inning, the Royals losing 1-0 and were on the cusp of dropping two of three games to the Marlins.

I cannot undersell how awful that outcome would’ve been. Unacceptable, really. To play at home and to have your front three starters twirl gems against a team with a .350 winning percentage…a team that countered your starters with Roddery Muñoz, who was making his seventh career start in the majors, Yonny Chirinos, who has spent the majority of his year in Triple-A, and Valente Bellozo who was making his big league debut…This would have been crushing.

Bobby Witt Jr. wasn’t going to let that happen.

Let’s play spot the baseball. Actually, I’m giving it away with the arrow pointing to its location.

Based on the arc of the baseball and the position of the center fielder, chasing it down, this was the moment you knew the outcome of the play. You knew, you absolutely knew that the baseball would hop against the wall and Witt wasn’t stopping until he hit the third base bag. One night after Witt was too aggressive rounding second base when Maikel Garcia was held up at third, which resulted in Garcia getting in a rundown between home and third, Witt found redemption in the right-center alley.

I’ve searched high and low for Witt’s time going from home to third on this play. I clocked it on my stopwatch at 10.7 seconds. That’s insanely fast. Too fast. I don’t trust my fingers. I went frame by frame and all I can say with certainty is that it was faster than 11 seconds. I’m honestly surprised we didn’t hear a sonic boom sometime after he hit first base.

The old baseball saw is that it’s sacrilege to make the first or third out at third base. If you’re going for that bag, in that situation you have to be completely certain that you’ll make it. When Witt puts the baseball in that location in the outfield, I don’t care if the outfielder has some sort of hybrid arm that’s part Roberto Clemente, part Steve Austin and part Fernando Tatis Jr.—Witt has to go. Obviously, he knows this. He’s thinking triple straight out of the box. Probably the moment the bat met the ball.

The triple is one of the most exciting plays in the game and when it’s Witt motoring around those bases, it’s a proper injection of offensive adrenaline. The Royals have been flat for over a week. In their last 11 games entering Wednesday, the offense had hit a combined 8-57 with runners in scoring position. That’s a .140 batting average with RISP. That’s not good enough. In this case, there were two outs. A shot in the arm to be sure, but capitalization of the situation was required yet far from certain.

The good news in that moment: On the 2024 Royals, if you need a run brought home (and Bobby Witt Jr. isn’t an option because he’s on base) the guy you want at the plate is Vinnie Pasquantino. Pasquantino has brought home 21.1 percent of all runners on base when he’s hitting. That’s second only the team among regulars to only Witt who has scored 21.7 percent of all runners. (For perspective, the league average is 14.4 percent so both Witt and Pasquantino are well above average at cashing in baserunners.)

Pasquantino squared up an 0-1 fastball to drive it back up the middle. Witt touched home plate. Tie game. The Royals, lifeless for seven and two-thirds innings, were stirring.

Pasquantino, on first and representing the go-ahead run, was lifted for pinch runner Dairon Blanco. These are the fun moments of the game that harken back to the days of Jerrod Dyson and Terrance Gore. If you know what Blanco is going to do, you know damn well the entire Miami Marlins Baseball Club is aware. Yet, they’re completely powerless to stop him.

Blanco wasn’t waiting around, either. The situation was urgent. With Salvador Perez at the plate, Blanco’s presence was required at second. Immediately. He was off on the first pitch.

Once it was settled that Blanco had taken second base safely, attention turned to Perez. I know what you’re wondering…If Witt and Pasquantino are the Royals best hitters at bringing baserunners home, where does Perez rank? How about third? Perez has scored 20.5 percent of all runners this year. That is his best rate since 2013 when he brought home over 21 percent. (I’m not counting 2020 which was actually his best, but it was a truncated season.)

Perez, who took a first-pitch strike to allow Blanco to get to second, watched a cutter travel low and away. A 1-1 pitch awaited. Marlins reliever Huascar Brazoban served up a fat four-seamer.

Blanco scored with ease. The Royals finally held a lead, 2-1.

It’s not a flashy part of the order compared to other lineups, but the Royals two-three-four can be damn productive. The Bobby/Vinnie/Salvy trio is crucial to the success of this team. They didn’t do a thing in Texas and the Royals were swept for the first time all season. They showed signs of life on Monday as both Pasquantino and Perez performed some back-to-back yardwork to put a charge in a decisive fourth inning. It’s not as though they’re the only guys who can do damage. They’re just the best equipped. When they’re rolling, you feel good about the Royals’ chances.

If Pasquantino’s single to bring home Witt was just sheer relief that the Royals could put a run on the board, Perez’s double to score Blanco was exhilaration. The Royals’ offense was coming alive. Just in the nick of time.

A little insurance would be nice. Nick Loftin provided the first blow, with a single to left which scored Perez from second. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Perez motor like that.

Loftin needed that hit. Since his recall from Omaha at the end of May, he’s hit .206/.304/.294 in 80 plate appearances. He had three hits in his previous 38 at bats.

The Royals pushed the lead to 3-1.

MJ Melendez singled to push Loftin to third. After Hunter Renfroe took a walk to load the bases and keep the inning rolling, the next man up was Freddy Fermin. He laced a high fastball just over the shortstop to plate two more. Just like that, a 5-1 lead. The quick-strike offense returned. The Royals from April and May were back.

In the eighth, the Royals batted around. With two outs, seven consecutive runners reached base. They staved off disaster, winning their first series since when the Mariners visited Kauffman earlier this month. A welcome win as it was necessary.

I’ve barely mentioned Brady Singer to this point, but he gets plenty of credit for limiting the Marlins to a single run and keeping his team in the game. Singer required 35 pitches to grind through the first two innings of the game. From Anne Rogers:

After feeling off with his command the first two innings and not liking his pitch shapes, Singer made adjustments, including to attack the zone more and he got into the eighth inning with 92 pitches. The Marlins whiffed aggressively at his slider, but they were also kept off balance with Singer’s four-seamer after he tweaked the grip this week to make it more consistent.

Singer was in the zone, especially with that slider. He got 10 whiffs on that pitch. I was more impressed with his location of the four-seamer, how he was dotting the top of the zone with consistency.

I’m not sure that mix in the middle of the zone works against teams with a little more octane in their offense, but against the Marlins it was the correct way to attack. Yet after those first two innings where he elevated his pitch count, he needed to get a little more effenciency behind his work. Singer really needed to get deep into the game. Can you imagine if he could only go five and the bullpen was charged with pitching four innings? Yeah, I don’t want to think about that either.

Singer recognized that, made the adjustments and kept the Royals within striking position. Impressive.

Finally, let’s wrap up with a happy win probability chart from Baseball Savant:

What’s one word that describes this chart?

For me, it’s relief.

Cental Issues

Guardians 2, Orioles 4

Earl Weaver used to extoll the three-run home run. The Orioles twisted that a bit as, instead of one three-run bomb, they opted for three solo shots. Teamwork! Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn did the honors. Jhonkensy Noel homered in his first career major league at bat for the Guardians.

Dodgers 4, White Sox 0

Gavin Stone threw LA’s first complete game shutout since Walker Buehler in April 25, 2022. The game has changed, hasn’t it? The Hapless White Sox were shutout for the 250th time this year. I just made up that number, but I think it’s close. The Dodgers swept the series.

Phillies 6, Tigers 2

Brandon Marsh broke up a tie with a solo home run in the fourth inning and then extended the Philly lead with a two-run single an inning later. Philadelphia starter Spencer Turnbull, who was non-tendered by the Tigers last November, lasted only three innings before exiting with shoulder soreness. The bullpen backed him up with six innings of three-hit ball.

Twins 8, Diamondbacks 3

Minnesota clubbed seven doubles as part of a 14-hit barrage. Jose Miranda had a pair of two-baggers and drove in three. Arizona starter Ryne Nelson was charged with six runs in 3.2 innings.

Up Next

The Guardians come to town. I’d tell you it’s an important series, but you already know that. Besides, with the team in contention, every series against teams in the AL Central are crucial series.

Thu at 7:10 p.m. RHP Ben Lively (7-3, 3.03) vs. RHP Michael Wacha (4-6, 4.07)
Fri at 7:10 p.m. RHP Triston McKenzie (3-4, 4.66) vs. RHP Alec Marsh (5-5, 4.40)
Sat at 3:10 p.m. RHP Tanner Bibee (6-2, 3.50) vs. LHP Cole Ragans (5-5, 3.03)
Sun at 1:10 p.m. LHP Logan Allen (8-3, 5.72) vs. RHP Seth Lugo (10-2, 2.29)

Thursday’s game will air on FS1 for those of you who have been screwed by the Bally Sports debacle. An opportunity to watch the boys play some ball.