Royals raid the free agent pitching market

The Royals (the Royals!) splash the cash in signing a pair of pitchers who should contribute in improving the team's fortunes in 2024.

Determined to beat the holiday rush, JJ Picollo and the Royals went on a free agent spending spree on Tuesday, signing a pair of pitchers.

New to the club is starting pitcher Seth Lugo who agreed to a three-year deal while the Royals inked reliever Chris Stratton to a two-year agreement.

While neither move is destined to have you clear your calendar for the month of October, both are sorely needed to shore up a pitching staff that, after last year, was in dire need of help. Plus, it was the kind of free agent flurry rarely seen around these parts. Two signings in one day? Neither of which came from the bottom of the barrel? Be still my baseball heart.

Let’s look at who the Royals got, how they will be counted on to help and the financials involved. It’s a fun day.

Lugo was drafted by the Mets in 2011 and spent most of his minor league years in the rotation, with occasional relief appearances. Once he broke into The Show, Lugo pitched primarily out of the bullpen while making a handful of starts. Over seven seasons in New York, Lugo delivered a 3.48 ERA in 494.2 innings. He distinguished himself with exquisite control, walking just 2.5 BB/9 while striking out 9.2 K/9 with the Mets.

Lugo hit free agency for the first time last winter and although the Royals had interest in his services, the right-hander ultimately signed with San Diego on a two-year deal valued at $15 million with an opt-out. After posting a 3.57 ERA over 146.1 innings working exclusively as a starter, the decision to opt-out was easy. And ultimately correct.

Once he moved to the rotation, his control didn’t falter as Lugo finished last year with a 2.2 BB/9. The fastball velocity dropped a tick (as to be expected) and the strikeouts and overall whiff rate dipped a bit to 8.6 K/9 and 22 percent, respectively. He’s a strike-thrower who lives around the zone. Remember last year when the Royals were talking about wanting their pitchers to get ahead in the count by throwing first-pitch strikes? And remember how that…didn’t happen. Lugo offers a first-pitch strike at an above-average rate of 63 percent of the time.

Lugo didn’t change his pitch mix in the move to the rotation. He’s always thrown five different offerings: a fastball, sinker, curve and slider with an occasional changeup.

The curve is the moneymaker for Lugo. It features elite spin and a knee-buckling drop. Here’s Lugo befuddling some guy who will only get paid $2 million next year. It’s probably not a fair fight.

When looking at the peripherals on Lugo, he doesn’t get a lot of chase, meaning swings on pitches outside the zone. That’s largely because he lives on the edges and, like that pitch to Shohei Ohtani above, can drop the hammer in the zone.

It should be noted that Lugo will spin the curve to batters on either side of the plate and at any count. It’s truly his best pitch and he’s rightly not shy about throwing it.

What I like about the curve above is that Lugo delivers it where his catcher has set, but just off the dish. It’s a chase, but one that’s still in the neighborhood. Both hitters look like they timed the pitch fine, yet they both swung over it.

Featuring about 15 MPH of separation from the two fastballs he throws, it’s a pitch that’s going to make a lot of hitters look foolish. According to Statcast, Lugo’s curve features 60 inches of drop. There aren’t many curveballs in the league that tumble like that. Batters hit .280 against the pitch with a .375 slugging percentage last year, numbers that honestly surprised me. His curve is usually hit for a sub-.200 batting average with a slugging percentage below .300. Maybe the jump was due to the increase in volume as a starter. Hitters got a few more looks at the pitch and were able to adjust.

Still, it’s a pitch that’s rolled over more frequently than not. Lugo has been a ground ball pitcher for most of his career. That will play at any stadium, but with the Royals lining up elite defense on the left side of the infield and solid glovework on the right, Lugo will surely benefit from keeping the ball on the ground.

The sinker graded as Lugo’s best pitch last year, even though it featured a bit below a nine percent whiff rate. Opponents hit just .208 off the pitch.

Lugo signs for three years and $45 million with an opt-out after 2025. He will earn $15 million each season he pitches in Kansas City.

This is a good signing for the Royals in the short-term, but I’m not a fan of that third year for Lugo because we just haven’t seen enough of him as a starter, despite one good season in the rotation, and because he just turned 34. Oh! He’s also pitching with a “slight” tear of his UCL, an injury he suffered back in 2017. At the time, he decided against Tommy John surgery, instead opting to undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection followed by rest. The ligament has held. Lugo had surgery for bone spurs in 2021, but that was unrelated to his UCL. He missed time last season with a calf strain, suffered in May in a start against the Royals.

It’s an overpay, but not an egregious one. The Royals may come to regret that third year, but this move definitely improves the rotation from what we saw last year. At this point, short-term improvement without sacrificing the future is the goal. This signing largely fits that bill.

Stratton is, like many of his middle relief peers, something of a baseball vagabond, making stops in San Francisco, Los Angeles (with the Angels), Pittsburgh and St. Louis along the way. He was part of the deal that sent Jordan Montgomery to the Rangers last year.

In Stratton, the Royals added a reliever who features a four-pitch mix: fastball, curve, slider and change. It’s the four-seamer averaging around 93 MPH that's his bread-and-butter offering. Opponents hit just .188 against it last year and its Run Value ranked in the 85th percentile. I wouldn’t go as far as to call it an elite pitch (he is a middle reliever, you know) but it’s certainly a weapon when it’s working for him.

The right-hander has posted a 4.43 ERA in 545 innings in his career. The 2023 season was the best of his career as he finished with a 3.92 ERA and 3.53 FIP while striking out 8.8 batters per nine. His 2.7 BB/9 was the best walk rate of his career.

Like Lugo (and last weekend’s signing Will Smith) Stratton fills up the strike zone. Notice a trend? Stratton has posted a 3.6 BB/9 over his career so while last year’s sparkling 2.7 BB/9 represents a career-best, it’s not some crazy kind of outlier. He throws a first-pitch strike above 60 percent of the time.

Stratton signs for two years at $8 million total. He’s due $3.5 million in 2024 and holds an option for 2025 at $4.5 million. There’s a $500,000 buyout on the option.

As you know, I’m never a fan of throwing cash at a reliever, especially one who profiles in middle relief. There’s a chance that Stratton can’t repeat his successes from last year. However, the Royals bullpen was so abysmal last year that JJ Picollo has to do something. Stratton (along with Smith) are solid, veteran arms who should be short-term contributors. The goal may not be contention in 2024, but at this point I’m feeling good about their chances of avoiding 100 losses. That’s progress.

Neither of these signings is officially official at the time of publication. The Royals are currently operating with a full 40-man roster which means they will have to DFA a couple of players before they can add Lugo and Stratton.

It’s foolish to guess who the Royals will remove from their roster, but I’ll throw Jonathan Heasley and Max Castillo out as two possibilities.

Since we learned the Royals had a surplus of $30 million to spend this offseason, Picollo has signed Smith ($5 million in 2024), Lugo ($15 million) and Stratton ($3.5 million). That’s just south of $24 million, leaving $6 million to spend. As we’ve seen in the last few days, there are creative (and totally legal!) ways for teams to sign free agents to work within a budget. Besides, there should be some wiggle room for Picollo to operate. His spending thus far has been prudent. He deserves more cash if he needs it to secure the services of the right player.

About that…While the moves in recent days certainly improve the team’s standing for the upcoming season, there’s still work to be done. A rotation of Cole Ragans and Lugo followed by Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch IV and Jordan Lyles looks better than what we saw last year, but woof…It has to get better. The Royals have reportedly been in on Marcus Stroman and Lucas Giolito while they’ve had discussions with Jack Flaherty and Michael Wacha. There’s quite a variance in that quartet, but any of the four would represent an upgrade from the previous year’s rotation. Obviously, Stroman or Giolito would be preferable to Flaherty or Wacha, but at this point it’s truly a question of budget. What can Picollo and the Royals offer to those free agents that can convince them to come to Kansas City? Also, we can’t discount a trade to bring in another starter.

The point is, Piccolo has done some solid work this winter. The job is far from done. While other moves need to be made to build the roster, the priority for the Royals remains acquiring another starter.

How weird is it that in mid-December, MLB Trade Rumors has a Royals update almost every day? Usually around this time of the winter, we will go weeks without a transaction or even a rumor of note. The Royals haven’t turned the corner yet, but things are looking up. This is as optimistic as I’ve felt about the team in December in years.