The Royals prepare for the stretch run with waiver claims and a trade

In a busy transaction day, the Royals hit the waiver wire twice and add a third player via trade.

Saturday’s game against the Astros was shaping up into another old fashioned pitcher’s duel. Astros starter Yusei Kikuchi, who arrived in Houston at the trade deadline, has pitched well since switching teams, with the Astros winning all five of his previous starts, was looking sharp. Meanwhile, Royals ace Cole Ragans was straight dealing. After Jose Altuve led off by flying out to center, Ragans set down the next eight hitters via strikeout. Yes, dealing.

As the game settled into a rhythm, the question was, which starter would stumble first?

Sadly, we know the answer to that. Ragans scuffled in the sixth as the Astro lineup flipped over for a third time. It was actually the number nine hitter, Ben Gamel, who opened up the Houston offense, leading off the inning with a single. From there it went HBP, walk, single and triple. Boom. Just like that, four runs. Steven Cruz entered and promptly threw a wild pitch which brought Jeremey Peña home from third to give the Astros their fifth run.

The Royals added a run in the seventh and Bobby Witt Jr. hit a solo home run in the eighth, but that was all they could muster. It was a 5-2 defeat, their fourth in a row.

They have not won since they pulled into a first place tie with Cleveland earlier in the week. Their four consecutive defeats matches their longest losing streak of the year.

The Royals are now 4-6 in this key stretch of 20 games that will define their season.

Before the loss, there was a flurry of transaction action from JJ Picollo and the Royals. They were successful in two waiver claims, bringing outfielders Robbie Grossman and Tommy Pham on board. Not satisfied with that, Picollo also swung a trade for first baseman Yuli Gurriel.

With rosters expanding on Sunday—teams can add two players—the September Royals will look very different.

Did the Royals really need to snag two corner outfielders off the waiver wire? They did not. That will be even more clear as you continue to read. Did they need a 40-year-old first baseman who has yet to appear in a major league game this year? I think the answer to that is maybe…yes?

What I do know is there are now 25 games between Sunday and the start of the playoffs. The Royals are chasing October and they are going to be as aggressive as they can be to get there.

Before we dive into the players the Royals acquired, here’s how I think the waiver process unfolded. With the waiver claim order being the reverse order of the standings, the Royals were somewhere around 21 in the claim order. That meant teams like the Braves, Mets, Twins, Red Sox and Astros, all clubs in the hunt for the postseason, would be awarded any claim they submitted ahead of the Royals. Because of this, it seems as though the Royals were taking no chances (again, they were being aggressive) and claiming both Grossman and Pham with the hope they would land one of them. One of them. They probably weren’t counting on getting both. What this means is that the Royals ultimately overvalued the market for the players on the waiver wire. That previous sentence is underscored by the fact none of the other players on the waiver wire (we don’t know how many were on the wire, it’s a secretive process) were claimed.

The Royals, however, were in a unique position with the recent injury to Vinnie Pasquantino, plus the general offensive underperformance of their outfield all season long that they really did need to look for reinforcements. Also, having a plethora of corner outfield types can be easily remedied at a later date. There is no rule that states a team has to keep the players they claimed.

Let’s start with the waiver claims and the player I consider to be the more valuable of the two: Grossman.

Grossman is a soon-to-be 35-year-old switch-hitting corner outfielder. He has always hit better from the right side of the plate, against left-handed pitching. Check out his career splits:

Career vs LHP as RHB - .282/.382/.427 for a 124 tOPS+
Career vs RHP as LHB - .228/.330/.355 for a 90 tOPS+

The tOPS+ metric is the split of the player’s total OPS+. It’s not against the rest of the league. It just underscores what you can infer from the batting average, on-base percentage and slugging…Grossman is a much better hitter against right-handed pitching over the course of his career.

I always caution against focusing on platoon splits with just a year of data, but it’s worth pointing out that Grossman’s career trends are continuing in 2024. In extreme fashion.

2024 vs LHP as RHB - .281/.387/.438 for a 151 tOPS+
2024 vs RHP as LHB - .172/.277/.207 for a 47 tOPS+

His splits have been this kind of extreme since 2022. Under no circumstances should Grossman be hitting against right-handed pitching. He’s useless against righties.

Grossman is a corner outfielder, but he’s just not good defensively. He’s played more right field this year than left and has graded as -4 Outs Above Average in right against 0 OAA in left. Last year, he played more left field than right; his Statcast metrics were flipped at -2 OAA in right and -3 OAA in left. No matter how you chop the numbers and the playing time, you’re talking about a glove that is decidedly below average.

My initial thought when I heard about the Grossman acquisition was that he would be a good guy to platoon with MJ Melendez in left. For his career, Melendez has been much better against right-handed pitchers—as you would expect.

Career vs LHP - .234/.280/.356 for a 80 tOPS+
Career vs RHP - .220/.311/.418 for a 106 tOPS+

Manager Matt Quatraro has really worked to limit Melendez’s exposure to southpaws this year, for good reason. Melendez’s production has completely fallen off the proverbial cliff against lefties. In 66 plate appearances this year, he’s collected just two extra-base hits–both doubles–while hitting an abysmal .154/.167/.185. His -12 wRC+ against left-handed pitching is the worst on the team by far.

So yeah, I’ll stand by my initial thought. Grossman will be around to platoon with Melendez down the stretch. In games where Grossman starts against lefties, Melendez will still get in as a pinch-hitter or—and I realize how insane this sounds, but it’s true—as a late-inning defensive upgrade in left.

In fact, Grossman does so well against left-handed pitching that it would not surprise me at all to see him lead off in games where he starts. Grossman is a contact-type of hitter who has 16 walks against 22 strikeouts against lefties this year. His on base percentage against southpaws this year is right in line with his career rate and, at .387 is 100 points better than what the Royals have gotten from their leadoff hitter all year. Yes, the .277 OBP from Royals leadoff hitters is the worst in the majors. Grossman can play a key offensive role against left-handed pitching and form half of a strong platoon in left.

Let’s give Pham the same treatment as Grossman. Pham is a right-handed hitter with less extreme platoon splits in his career, but they still certainly exist.

Career vs LHP - .268/.376/.452 for a 113 tOPS+
Career vs RHP - .255/.338/.422 for a 95 tOPS+

His splits this year are right in line with his career numbers, at least as far as the current offensive environment goes for the tOPS+ numbers.

2024 vs LHP - .232/.323/.439 for a 112 tOPS+
2024 vs RHP - .261/.320/.358 for a 92 tOPS+

Pham, like Grossman, started the season with the White Sox. (I’m seriously wondering if I’m writing about the same player at this point.) Pham did ok for the Sox, hitting .266/.330/.380, good for a 102 OPS+. There were rumors at the trade deadline that the Royals were interested in acquiring Pham, but he was shipped to St. Louis, the organization that originally drafted him. Things have gone less well for Pham (and the Cardinals) since that trade. In 77 PAs in St. Louis, Pham hit .206/.286/.368 with an 81 OPS+. With the Cardinals fading from contention over the month of August, he was put on the waiver wire so he could have a chance to play for a contender.

Defensively, wouldn’t you know it, Pham grades out about the same as Grossman. Both are below average with the glove. Pham has had more innings in right field this year and owns a -3 OAA at the position. He’s at 0 OAA in left. He’s also played a little center, but really…we don’t need to entertain that thought.

My guess is that Pham will see some time in right field over the next week ahead of Hunter Renfroe coming off the IL. Since Renfroe has landed on the sidelines, the Royals have used Garrett Hampson (who had an amazing play on Saturday, robbing a home run), Tyler Gentry, Dairon Blanco and Adam Frazier in that spot. Pham is most definitely an upgrade offensively over that crew. Of course, Pham comes with a reputation of being a very…well, let’s say intense, kind of player. It will be interesting to see how he fits in with this group. They don’t lack intensity for sure, but it’s a different type of intensity.

Pham allows for the Royals to ease Renfroe back into the mix and is also coverage if Renfroe isn’t ready to go when he’s eligible to come off the IL this week.

Again, I can see wanting to add either one of Grossman or Pham. I think over the stretch of a full season, Grossman, as long as he isn’t permitted to hit against right-handed pitching, is the more desirable of the two. In a month of games? Anything goes.

Now for the truly surprising move, the trade for Gurriel.

He’s spent the entire year playing in the Braves’ system, playing first base for their Triple-A club. The 40-year-old has done well in the minors playing for the Gwinnett Stripers, hitting .292/.378/.485 which translates to a 125 wRC+. That’s relative to the International League. I think it’s worth noting that we’ve heard several times this season that the talent gap between the major league and Triple-A has never been wider. So I’m not sure I’d look at those numbers and think Gurriel will come up and rake straightaway.

It’s probably more instructive to look at two things. First, his recent major league performance. We know that most projection systems look at the last three or so years of that performance, so let’s dial things back to 2021 to see how Gurriel has done:

Gurriel won a batting title as recently as 2021, his last season he was an above-average offensive performer. ZiPS saw these numbers and projected he would hit .277/.329/.403, good for a 97 wRC+, making him a slightly below-average big league performer.

Of course, we don’t have any major league data for Gurriel because he hasn’t cracked the majors.

I understand what Picollo and company are doing. They don’t trust Nick Loftin to provide enough coverage in a first base/catching/designated hitting rotation with Perez and Fermin. I wouldn’t, either. I believe the plan here is to have Gurriel on the roster to allow for Perez to catch a little more frequently than he otherwise would have had the Royals not had a better option at first.

Gurriel remains a great unknown obviously. We cannot say for sure how he will perform but the good news is the Royals are not asking him to be a savior of any kind at first. He’s going to slot in and play from time to time. Maybe two-thirds of the remaining games? I suppose a great deal of that depends on how he does in his first exposure to major league pitching.

Gurriel was on the 7-day IL with the Stripers as he was dealing with a hamstring strain. He was due to come off the list on Sunday.

Whew. This is quite an overhaul of sorts to a roster of a team that has been in playoff contention for the last five months.

Quatraro is a mad lineup scientist of sorts, so he’s more that able when it comes to juggling playing time for these new additions. As noted above, I think Grossman fits this team the best, giving them a solid option against left-handed pitching.

To make room for both on the 40-man roster, the Royals designated Austin Nola and CJ Alexander for assignment. They basically decided they could live with Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin continuing to trade off catching duties down the stretch, which meant Nola was expendable as far as the roster goes. Given that he was hitting .156/.248/.296 in 135 at bats in Omaha, you can understand why. Alexander, who came to the Royals organization in the trade that also brought Drew Waters to the team, was having a much better season for the Storm Chasers, hitting .303/.352/.554 in 323 at bats. That was good enough to get a call to the big leagues earlier in the season, but I have rarely seen someone so overmatched at the plate.

The Royals will have to make another move to get Gurriel on the roster. We know that Pham and Grossman will join the team on Sunday. It’s a little less clear when Gurriel will arrive.

I have no idea how these moves will work, but I do believe Picollo has made this team stronger for the stretch run. I’ve been writing this over and over, but it bears repeating: September will be an exciting time to be following these Royals.