PECOTA hates the Royals: The pitchers

Let's just say the computer is underwhelmed by the young talent assembled.

After looking at how PECOTA views the Royals’ bats on Wednesday, it’s time to shift the focus to the arms for today’s edition.

Last year was rough for the starters. They combined for a 4.97 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. While those numbers weren’t the worst, they were solidly in the bottom quartile of performance. With a 4.22 ERA and 1.31 WHIP the relievers were better, but not by much.

Brad Keller tanked his Opening Day start and never got on track. Daniel Lynch got the call and struggled. Jackson Kowar got the call and really struggled. Kris Bubic and Brady Singer couldn’t take a step forward. Let’s just say the bloom is off the prospect rose.

For the Royals to push themselves into the thick of a strengthening AL Central, it’s imperative the starting pitching show improvement. Since the 2022 season is on hold and a blizzard is ripping through Kansas City this morning, let’s fire up the circuitry and check in on PECOTA. Is there hope for the young arms in the rotation? Can the bullpen continue to be an asset? The answers are within!

Brady Singer - 0.8 WARP

Right out of the gate and I’m flummoxed.

That’s my general reaction to watching Brady Singer pitch. And by the fact that Singer’s projected 0.8 WARP would be the best on the staff. Really? I see a sinker/slider combo that’s begging for a third pitch. A changeup that gathers dust. Frustrating result after frustrating result and never wavering from the approach. That’s Singer.

And here’s PECOTA projecting him to be the best pitcher on the Royals’ staff in 2022.

Whoa. Let’s take a moment to rewind ourselves.

Singer saw a jump in strikeout rate in 2021, but that came with an increase in walks. The real issue with Singer was that opposing batters came to look for the sinker and when they got it…they absolutely mauled it. The batting average against Singer’s sinker jumped from .230 in 2020 to .324 last summer. The increase in slugging was even more extreme—from .310 in his rookie season to .457 in 2021. That’s a bit of a problem when you feature only two pitches on the regular and the pitch that’s getting crushed is your favored offering. Singer threw the sinker 58 percent of the time last year.

And now PECOTA is actually projecting a step back when it comes to WARP.

For a bit of perspective when it comes to Singer being the best starter in the Royals’ rotation, by PECOTA projections, he would be the third-best starter for the Tigers and Twins. He would be the fifth-best starter for the White Sox and New Guardians.

PECOTA doesn’t care for Singer and really does hate the Royals’ rotation.

Dylan Coleman - 10.9 SO/9

Scott Barlow - 10.8 SO/9

Jake Brentz - 10.5 SO/9

The Royals lack a true closer. Sure, there are a handful of guys Mike Matheny can—and will—use in the ninth inning with the game on the line. Eight different relievers recorded a save for the Royals last year.

PECOTA isn’t necessarily a fan of the walk rates of the trio listed above, but the circuits do recognize heat—in a way. And these guys are projected to be the top options out of the bullpen when Matheny desperately needs that whiff.

Let’s take a look at the highest average fastballs from Royals pitchers in 2021 as classified by Baseball Savant.

With at least eight arms in the bullpen, having a variety pack of relievers can play to a manager’s advantage, especially over the course of a three-game series. It will be up to Matheny to figure out the when and where of their usage. To his credit, he got it right most of the time in 2021. Can he continue his deft touch in 2022?

Josh Staumont - 22 holds

Did you notice that Staumont was absent from the group above? Staumont lost a couple of ticks off his sinker and another off his four-seamer last year. Blame a rough case of COVID that set him back before spring training and never really allowed him to get on track.

Still, he managed to gut through what was probably his finest year as a major leaguer. He really cut his walk rate and the sinker became as unhittable as his four-seamer, despite the loss of velocity.

PECOTA sees Staumont as playing a key role in the Royals’ bullpen, as he’s projected to lead the team in holds. I agree that he’s probably not closer timbre at the moment, but he’s certainly an eighth inning guy and could, over the course of the season, prove himself to be the best reliever in that bullpen.

Carlos Hernández - 4.48 ERA

Don’t you sometimes just want to pull the plug on the computer? Or at least reboot the damn thing to clear the cobwebs out of the circuits.

Ahhhh, what would projection season be without at least one that you can vehemently disagree with?

Hernández was an incredibly valuable swingman for the Royals last year. He posted a 1.0 fWAR in 85 innings. He didn’t whiff a ton of guys (7.8 SO/9) and his walk rate was definitely a touch too high (4.3 BB/9, the same as Brad Keller), but the potential he flashed and the spice on that four-seamer and sinker…I’m not alone in looking forward to watching this kid pitch in 2022.

So after posting a 3.68 ERA (his ERA was 3.55 in 11 starts in 2021), it would be incredibly disappointing to see this kind of regression. I’ll just repeatedly tell myself that PECOTA doesn’t yet have a handle on Hernádez’s brilliance. It won’t take much convincing.

Jackson Kowar - 0.1 WARP

Daniel Lynch - -0.1 WARP

Struggle in your cup of coffee and PECOTA doesn’t give a damn about your past prospect status or future potential. (Actually, PECOTA is all about trying to project that future potential, but roll with me.)

I mentioned this in yesterday’s dispatch and it’s worth repeating here: All projection systems seem to struggle when it comes to young talent who have yet to find success in the majors. It’s understandable because all of these systems rely on past performance to project that future. And if your track record resembles Kowar’s and Lynch’s…well that’s tough to overcome.

I would expect both pitchers to do better than the above projection, especially Lynch. I remain convinced Lynch will emerge to be the best of his draft class. Maybe it happens this year. Maybe he needs a little more time. But I do know this season is a crucial one for both Lynch and Kowar. And for the Royals’ future.