The calm before the storm

An off day brings a chance to catch our collective breath before things get crazy.

Monday’s off day came at the perfect time in the Royals Universe: It gives everyone around 48 hours to bask in the walk-off afterglow. It’s nice to be able to ride a positive wave like that for a bit.

It’s also the perfect opportunity to empty the notebook.

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Let’s take a look at the teams the Royals will be facing over the next two weeks.

Three at Cleveland against the Guardians.
Three in Kansas City against the Mariners.
Four in Kansas City against the Yankees.
Three in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.

Or, another way to look at their next four opponents.

Cleveland - currently in first in the AL Central with a .661 winning percentage.
Seattle - currently in first in the AL West with a .557 winning percentage.
New York Yankees - currently in first in the AL East with a .689 winning percentage.
Los Angeles Dodgers - currently in first in the NL West with a .623 winning percentage.

What, is Philadelphia busy or something? I mean…my god. This is something out of October.

While the boys have been playing some ball, they are going to need to bring their A-game and then some to get through this gauntlet. While J.J. Picollo and the rest of his staff have been pouring over scouting reports and making exploratory inquiries on potential trade targets, we’re going to learn a lot about the 2024 Royals over the next two weeks. It’s not necessarily a make-or-break stretch (although something like a 2-11 record would be really, really bad), but it will be a definite measuring stick as to how they match up against baseball’s elite class.

One of the questions I’ve been asking myself since about the second week of the season is something along the lines of: Is this for real? Are the Royals really this good?

Ultimately, that’s what this newsletter is about. Analysis. As much as I want to believe, is there a reason to?

As you would expect, the smart people in the Royals front office have been asking the same questions.

From Sam McDowell:

A phone call Friday gathered together members of the Royals organization from across the country—general manager J.J. Picollo in Kansas City and the team’s professional scouts to his east, north, south and west.

Part of the conversation analyzed potential acquisitions, or at least types of potential acquisitions, but first Picollo asked aloud the simplest of big-picture questions.

Is this sustainable?

Picollo is a believer that the Royals’ first two months of the season is an indicator of their capability over the next four—and perhaps even one extra.

But the answer to his prompt? Unanimous.

Yes.

Picollo gets paid to make these types of assessments. Meanwhile, I survive on Pop-Tarts. Yet I’m inclined to somewhat agree with the Royals GM in this case. I’m not sure I buy they’re a .600 winning percentage type of team—that would put them on target for 97 wins—but I do think that after the first two months, they are firmly—and deservedly—in contention. Go back to the statistics I wrote about last week and how they tell the story of the Royals’ success. The numbers I noted (the fWAR for starting pitchers, the Defensive Runs Saved, the percentage of baserunners scored…), those are all cases where the Royals are at or near the top of the leaderboard and there’s a gulf between where they are and the rest of the league. That doesn’t happen for two months of games if a team is a paper tiger.

Can the performance fall off? Sure. It still might. But this team is legit.

From Anne Rogers:

“We go through June and we’re competing, now you’re thinking about the Trade Deadline even more and how that impacts your farm system,” general manager J.J. Picollo said. “Long term sustainability is our goal. At the same time, we have a lot of players here who committed to Kansas City as free agents. When a team is playing well, you know you have to add to the club somehow. From that respect, June can have a great impact on what we do. Not only in ‘24, but what our farm system looks like in ‘25 and ‘26.”

As I type this out, I’m sitting here nodding at what Picollo has to say. He knows the team can’t punt the future for the present, but at the same time, will feel the need to add to the team at the deadline. They’re going to hit the market early and probably aggressively. How aggressively is anyone’s guess at this point, but I’m envisioning something along the lines of what Jerry Dipoto attempts in Seattle. Maybe deal a veteran off the big league roster to keep stocking the minor leagues while making some other moves to fill holes (i.e. the bullpe and outfield). I’m not sure with the shallow pool of talent in the Royals system how he pulls that off, but we do know he’s much more transactional than his predecessor. I’m looking forward to seeing how June unfolds for this club.

We need to talk about Michael Wacha.

The dude took a baseball off his left foot in the first inning of Friday night’s game against the Padres.

It was the first batter of the game, Luis Arraez, who hit a 90 MPH comebacker that clipped Wacha in the foot. After a brief check from the trainers, Wacha stayed in the game and retired 14 of the next 15 batters he faced. The one guy who reached—Manny Machado—was erased as the back end of a strike-em-out-throw-em-out doubled play.

Trouble came for Wacha in the sixth as the Padres top third of the order all collected hits facing the right-hander for the third time. Wacha exited the game having thrown 5.1 innings. He was charged with allowing two runs on five hits and a walk. He struck out two batters and threw 78 pitches on the night.

Turns out Wacha threw 73 of those pitches with a broken left foot.

Animal.

The Royals won’t give a timeline for Wacha’s return, who is now understandably on the 15-day IL. He will keep throwing, albeit from his knee to keep the pressure off his foot, but will be able to stay limber. I would imagine it comes down to how much pain Wacha can take and how fast the fracture heals. It could be a four to six week trip to the IL, though.

There’s never a good time for this sort of thing and if you’re the type who power ranks the starting rotation, Wacha probably lands in the fourth or fifth spot. That’s not an indictment on Wacha. That’s a testament to the strength of the rotation this season. You can entertain the argument that Wacha has been a tad unfortunate. His strand rate is 69 percent (versus his career rate of 74 percent) and his 4.24 ERA is higher than his xERA of 3.56. The Royals are going to need someone who can fill in for Wacha and provide similar quality. Is Daniel Lynch IV the guy? He’s the leading candidate. For the moment.

Kris Bubic is just days from his rehab assignment from Tommy John surgery finishing up. The lefty threw 63 pitches in his last outing, back on May 29, with 40 of them going for strikes. He finished 3.2 innings and punched out seven batters. Impressive. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact he walked just a single batter. Since he left the complex league in mid-May, Bubic has made three appearances, going 8.2 innings with 12 strikeouts and just two walks.

The Storm Chases face Memphis on Tuesday. They have not named their starting pitcher for the game, although it would be on regular rest. That doesn’t necessarily align with Wacha’s spot in the Royals rotation, but their are several options in play for Bubic and the Royals. The team could decide to option Bubic to Omaha once his rehab time runs out. That would give him a little more time to get game-ready by ramping up his pitch count a little more, although it would seem he’s close. Or they could bring activate him immedately and have him throw a few innings out of the bullpen until he took that spot in the rotation. I’m not sure which way the Royals are leaning and they’re certainly not tipping their hand. (Oh, they’ll also need to make a move on the 40-man roster to get Bubic back. Sorry. This isn’t correct. The roster currently stands at 39.) We’ll find out more in a few days.

Would Bubic fit in the Royals bullpen? They certainly could use the help. But I would submit they need a couple of flamethrowers out there who miss bats. Bubic doesn’t fit the bill, although reports from the minors say his velocity is looking strong.

As I was combing through the leaderboards last week for my aforementioned entry about which stats tell the story of the Royals 2024 season, I decided to skew to the positive. That meant I left this out:

The Royals bullpen is striking out just 17.4 percent of all batters faced

If that seems unimpressive, that’s because it is. It’s the worst rate in the majors. And like those stats that are positive where the Royals have some separation between themselves and the rest of the league, it’s the same thing here, but not what you want. Only four bullpens have a strikeout rate less than 20 percent.

Blue Jays - 19.8%
Diamondbacks - 19.2%
Rockies - 18.2%
Royals - 17.4%

This isn’t just a problem. It’s an emergency. In today’s game, you absolutely have to have a bullpen that can throw heat and punch out batters.

I was a guest with Shane Dennis on ESPN 92.3 out of Wichita on Monday and we discussed which was more important to fix…the bullpen or the lack of offensive production from the outfield. I opted for the bullpen because, given how this team is currently constructed, there’s lineup cover for the outfield. The bullpen is—and has been—exposed. Plus, we’ve seen this movie before in a way. There’s nothing like watching a starting pitcher shove for six innings and then seeing an overmatched bullpen throw it all away. It’s damn demoralizing.

They can mix and match with some internal options, but those are somewhat limited. Among those on the 40-man, John McMillon is walking about a batter per innings. Colin Selby who arrived from Pittsburgh earlier this year has walked eight in just under 15 innings. Steven Cruz brings the wanted heat, but doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d like. Carlos Hernández was sent down to make room for Lynch and is certainly in the mix once he’s able to be brought back up.

The question is: Can the Royals cobble together an effective bullpen over the next month or so of the season until they can pull the trigger on a trade for relief reinforcements? That’s probably the play going forward.

Central Issues

Tigers 2, Rangers 1

Tarik Skubal went six innings, striking out six and Beau Brieske finished it up with three innings of one-hit ball, striking out four. Jake Rodgers provided all the offense, collecting two of Detroit’s three hits on the night—both of which left the yard. The Tigers are back to .500.