An ode to Seth Lugo and his curve

Seth Lugo brings balance, and a killer curveball, to the Royals rotation.

In his first start as a Royal, Seth Lugo pitched six scoreless innings. In his second, he went 6.2 and allowed just a single run. In his third…you get the idea.

Seth Lugo has been great in his first 10 starts in Kansas City. He’s solidified the Royals’ rotation, given them (along with Cole Ragans) a pair of legit aces. He does it with an array of pitches that includes a four-seamer, sinker and cutter. A slider and sweeper. A changeup. And, last but certainly not least, a curve and a slurve. It’s a dizzying combo that keeps hitters off balance and leads to, as noted above, success.

As he prepares to make his 11th start of the season on Friday in Tampa against the Rays, it’s time for a proper appreciation of Seth Lugo.

Lugo is one of those guys with a pitch percentage chart that looks like something you would see in the Museum of Modern Art.

So colorful! So many lines!

I could—and have—spent a considerable length of time just looking at this. It’s clear from the trends that we can see, starting in 2018, that Lugo started using his curve more and has clear set of pitches that he will rely upon in his four-seamer, sinker and that curve. This year though, he’s incorporated the sweeper and has started leaning more on a slurve that he picked up last season. He’s like a one-man pitching lab.

While it’s fun to look at his year-over-year pitch percentages, his game-by-game chart is even more interesting.

It’s the above table that you really see how he goes about his plan of attack, based on team and lineup. It’s still four-seamer and sinker, but the mix of secondaries can evolve from outing to outing.

The key to Lugo’s success though is his curveball.

The spin on Lugo’s curveball is elite. The best in the majors. Second-best isn’t even close. Here are the top curveball spin rates in baseball so far this year.

There’s some other relevant data in the table, such as break, but this is sorted by average curveball spin rate. Lugo practically laps the field here. And the gap between Lugo and 10th place Max Fried is over 500 RPMs, an astonishing gap. Also, notice the average break in the last column. Lugo is second in the majors here, trailing only Aaron Civale. Here’s an interesting scatter plot to visualize how Lugo has created separation between himself and his peers when it comes to spinning Uncle Charlie.

He’s way out there. No surprise opponents are hitting .111 off the Lugo curve. They’re slugging .176 on the pitch, too.

Lugo uses his curveball almost exclusively to left-handed hitters. He’s incorporated a slurve since he became a starter last season in San Diego which he will use more to right-handed batters. More on that pitch in a moment.

You know about the strikeout numbers from Lugo this year. About how he recorded 14 strikeouts in his first five starts of 2024 and in his next five starts he punched out 44 batters. Using that fifth start as a line of demarcation, Lugo has upped his spin rate on his curveball as the season has progressed. Through his first five starts of 2024, Lugo’s average spin rate on his curve was 3,268 RPMs. If you go back and revisit the table above, you’ll notice that spin was less than he’s currently averaging.

Over his next five starts, Lugo was averaging a spin rate of 3,365 RPMs on his curve . That’s about a three percent increase. Is that enough to turn an already good pitch into a devastating weapon? The proof seems to be in the whiffs.

In his start against the Angels last week, Lugo threw the pitch 19 percent of the time and recorded 10 outs on it. Including seven strikeouts. Yep…seven strikeouts on the curve.

Do you want to see something dirty?

Poor Niko Goodrum. Lugo got him three times in that game. I love his reaction, though. If he had a white flag, he would’ve waved it.

Lugo’s curve is a good ‘ole 12-to-6 knee-buckler. At least it’s a knee-buckler when the hitter isn’t swinging. The thing about the Lugo curve is he can really spot the pitch. He can throw it for strikes if he’s looking to mix things up early in the count. He can throw it just outside the zone like the GIF above to Goodrum. He will also spike one from time to time. With Lugo the location is almost never accidental because he simply doesn’t misfire.

Lugo will also work the pitch right to left as he told David Laurila at FanGraphs a few years ago. Like this offering earlier this month that he bought a called third strike on.

It’s difficult to draw game to game correlations on Lugo’s increased spin rate. For every game like against the Angels where he threw 21 curves, got 13 swings and eight whiffs, there’s a start like he had against the Blue Jays on May 1. In that outing he spun just nine curves and got a grand total of two swings. One was put in play, the other was fouled off.

That’s the beauty of having six other pitches at your disposal. If the curve, which is his best pitch, isn’t working, he can pivot to something else. Against the Blue Jays he was facing a tight strikezone and a disciplined team that wasn’t going to swing at that pitch unless it was elevated in the zone.

I enjoyed what Lugo said to Anne Rogers after his start on May 18 where he punched out 10 batters.

“They’re outs,” Lugo said. “No one’s getting on base. I feel like it slows the defense down a little bit, gets my pitch count up. So ideally, I’d like to get an out on the first or second pitch. But if I read a batter, and he’s not getting a swing off on a pitch I think should be a ground ball or easy out, I have to go for the strikeout.”

Lugo is such a cerebral pitcher. He reminds me of Greinke in a way, with his ability to, as he says, read a batter and make adjustments on the fly. I’m hoping at some point he drops a 69 MPH hammer.

If he’s going for a strikeout and the batter is hitting from the left side, Lugo is going to throw his curve.

Earlier, I mentioned Lugo’s slurve. It’s a pitch he started throwing last season but has really upped his usage, throwing it 11 percent of the time. It’s a compliment to his curve for left-handed batters, although he will offer the pitch to lefties as well.

Like his curve, the spin on his slurve is elite. Only five pitchers have thrown it enough to qualify for Baseball Savant leaderboards but it’s no surprise who’s at the top.

Again, he’s lapping the field with the spin. And he gets a lot more break than any of the other four pitchers.

Lugo’s slurve comes in a bit slower than his curve on average, but features a little more horizontal run. Honestly, I have no idea how a hitter would make an adjustment to a pitch with such similarities with the curve. The brain has to be firing off that the pitch coming in as the curve, but as the hitter gears up to swing he realizes the pitch is coming in slower. Then when he tries to adjust to that, the pitch moves ever so slightly in a different fashion. A little more ride. Good luck.

Like his curve that has picked up spin over his last five starts, the RPMs on Lugo’s slurve have also increased. In his first five starts, he was averaging 3,137 RPMs on the pitch. In his next five starts he was averaging 3,217 RPMs on his slurve. Overall, the pitch isn’t as successful as his curve—opposing batters are hitting .296 against it with a .370 slugging percentage—it will be interesting to see how Lugo continues to use this pitch going forward.

Not to bring anyone down, but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out a couple of areas where I have concern with Lugo going forward. Nothing catastrophic. Just perhaps a bit of regression moving forward.

This season, batters are putting the ball in the air against Lugo more than at any point in his career. His current ground ball rate is 41 percent, about three points off his career rate. Like I said, not a huge issue, but with a truly elite infield defense behind him, it sure would be beneficial if he put them to use more than he’s already doing. Lugo generally has a home run rate of around 1.2 HR/9. It’s currently 0.8 HR/9. All six of the home runs he’s allowed have come in his last six starts.

Another point is Lugo is currently carrying a strand rate of 90 percent, a number that’s unsustainably elevated. Strand rate is what it sounds like—the percentage of runners a pitcher leaves on base. Guys who don’t score. An average strand rate is around 75 percent and in his career Lugo is at 77 percent. Some of those runners are eventually going to come around to score. Although given the way Lugo approaches his craft, I wouldn’t be surprised if the regression is gradual.

Scary stuff aside, Lugo has been a joy to watch. An absolute A-plus free agent signing from JJ Picollo and his staff. He’s getting results on the mound and impacting his fellow starters in a way it seems like we haven’t seen in these parts since James Shields built the foundation of the starting rotation back in 2013 and 2014.

Lugo has arrived in Kansas City and established himself as one of the top starters in the American League. Based on his performances thus far, he’s in the conversation when debating the best starters of 2024. Lugo has to be on Bruce Bochty’s shortlist of potential All-Star Game starters. Wouldn’t that be something? The way Salvador Preze is going, we could have a Royal starting All-Star battery.

For his array and approach, I find Lugo to be the most interesting pitcher for the Royals since Greinke in his prime. It’s must-see TV (or radio or just attending the game in person) when Lugo takes the ball every fifth day. Which means tonight, starting at 5:50 Central, when Seth Lugo takes the baseball and fires off his first pitch against the Rays, you know exactly where I’ll be.

Central Issues

Tigers 1, Blue Jays 9

Detroit continues to unravel. This game actually started out as a pitcher’s duel with John Flaherty holding the Jays to a single run through six inning while his counterpart, Kevin Gausman likewise allowed a run through six. Trouble came for Flaherty in the seventh as Dauton Varsho hit a two-run home run to chase the starter from the game. The Tigers bullpen couldn’t keep it close as Alex Faedo and Mason Englert both gave up three runs. The Tigers have lost five in a row.

Orioles 8, White Sox 6

Baltimore battered starter Mike Clevenger for five runs in 4.2 innings with the big blow coming off the bat of ninth place hitter Jorge Mateo who clubbed a three-run home run in the fourth as the O’s pushed out to an 8-2 lead. The Hapless White Sox mounted a ninth inning charge, though. The first six batters reached with four runs coming across. The game ended on an insane play as Andrew Benintendi hit a popup that was immediately called for an infield fly which was the second out. As shortstop Gunnar Henderson manuvered to catch said pop up, he had to move around Andrew Vaughn who was heading back to second. It was a minor inconvenience for Henderson and Vaughn did nothing wrong in going back to the bag, yet third base umpire Junior Valentine ruled interference. Third out. Ballgame over. Insane. I’m guessing that at over three hours in gametime, Valentine was ready for a night out on the South Side.

With the top three teams in the division idle on Thursday, not much changed of interest in the standings.

Here’s your handy playoff odds reminder.

With a holiday weekend, I haven’t decided if I’m going to publish something on Monday. We’ll see how this series goes against the Rays. I could find myself compelled to write something. Have a great weekend.