Who will throw the next no-hitter for the Royals?
It's been almost 30 years since the last Royals' no-no. In the year of the no-hitter, we have a ranking of the most likely candidates. Also, another pitcher's duel breaks out under the roof in Tampa.
It is, at this point, as inevitable as the sun coming up in the morning. I’ll be bopping along, enjoying the day, monitoring baseball games and then feel a buzz in the pocket. It’s the MLB app, letting me know that our watch has begun for the night.
NO-HITTER WATCH: [RANDOM PITCHER] HAS NOT ALLOWED A HIT AGAINST [RANDOM TEAM, BUT USUALLY THE MARINERS] THROUGH [NUMBER] INNINGS.
As a baseball culture, we’re getting more no-hitters this season than we have in quite some time. This is fun, and neat! No-hitters are absolutely cool as hell, even when Wade Miley throws them, and we should all run to the nearest live stream or Reddit thread or Twitter any time anyone is marching toward history, no matter how cheapened you might personally deem the achievement due to the modern three true outcomes game. Really, really good, modern MLB pitchers will never sniff a no-hitter. The Hall of Fame is littered with fantastic pitchers who never got there. It’s not easy. Don’t cheapen the notion. No-hitters are dope and if you don’t believe that, you’re a Mariners fan (sorry you’re catching strays in the first few paragraphs, Mariner fans) or the sort of person who hates fun and either way, maybe schadenfreude is more your sport. Detroit has several teams competing in it, from what I understand.
But as this is a Royals-centric endeavor, and as the Royals have plummeted down the list in recent years of “Longest time since a no-hitter,” (Bret Saberhagen, August 26, 1991, against the White Sox) it seems fair to ask the Baseball Gods when it will be the Baby Blue Bombers turn. It’s not like they’re devoid of the talent; by my count, eight people who have been in/around the Royals have thrown no-hitters since 1991, including two from early-career Homer Bailey and two from guys (Clay Bucholz and Sean Manaea) who never threw a pitch for the Royals. Of the Royals top-10 in pitching bWAR, two are relievers and of the eight starters, only Sabes threw a no-hitter during his time in Major League Baseball.
The Royals are due, is what I’m saying. And there’s never been a climate more conducive to the no-hitter, and the numbers bear that out both because baseball-wide hitting is down to its late-1960s nadir and also because there’s been a no-hitter thrown every other week for the first two months of this season. Because this is a full-service newsletter, it seems only fair to point you toward the most likely hurler to snap a Royals streak that is, at this point, nearly as old as I am.
10. Brad Keller
I don’t like being this person, because I enjoy Keller’s work and how he maximizes everything he’s got. For a Rule 5 guy to become not just a de facto ace during the lean years, but a genuine part of the future for a team with an embarrassing amount of arm talent in the minor leagues shouldn’t be dismissed.
But Keller’s future (hopefully) is that of an innings-devouring No. 4, because he habitually strikes out no one (16.9 percent career K%, striking out fewer than seven batters per nine) and allows soft contact, but contact nonetheless. Keller is destined for a couple of starts where an 18-hopper up the middle ruins his chance at immortality.
9. Mike Minor
Everything about the Mike Minor oeuvre is a good time. He grinds hitters to dust, he can strike guys out and the last time we had a full MLB season, he pitched into the ninth in 2019 on three occasions. He’s this low only because, as the season winds on, he could become trade fodder if the Royals fall inexorably out of the race.
8. Ervin Santana
Cheating? Maybe. But Erv has started before, he’ll likely start again, and there’s enough magic surrounding him that I write him off at my own peril.
7. Kris Bubic
6. Alec Marsh
5. Jackson Kowar
I’ll lump these three in here. Kowar has the highest ceiling, Bubic is already up and Marsh has better long-term rotation odds than Bubic, for my money. All will get their chance, it would seem, and Kowar probably sooner rather than later.
4. Johnathan Bowlan
Bowlan threw a no-hitter in Wilmington during the 2019 season, the Blue Rocks first in 19 years. If nothing else, he’s at least done it before. And his progression, as the indispensable views from Clint Scoles can attest, projects him out as someone who can profile as an innings-eater in the future. Doesn’t it seem like those guys are forever reaching immortality over, say, Zack Greinke? There is some poetic injustice to it all.
3. Daniel Lynch
Yeah, I know. Give me the narrative where Lynch goes back down, sorts it out, returns and just starts dominating around August 1. Roy Halladay had this in the bag; tell me straight up Lynch does not and never will, then send me your address so I can drive by and throw a brick through your window.
I like guys who, even when things are going to absolute pot, can still make big-league hitters do these things.
2. Staff Outing
This, obviously, is cheating.
The easiest outcome possible would be a quality if laborious start from anyone in the rotation and then three straight zeroes from Tyler Zuber, Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont. Sometimes the most likely path is the one of least resistance.
1. Danny Duffy
We come now to the crowd-pleaser.
I don’t have the foggiest notion of how much is left in the tank for Duffy. He’s looked absolutely brilliant at times this season, adding some life to the fastball and getting more drop on the curve and slider than he ever has. Would you like some examples? Of course you would!
Here’s his slider in 2019-20. Good, but not overpowering.
Now notice the extra downward bite this thing has in 2021.
It’s early, but the Duffman has gotten the two best whiff rates of his career during the StatCast era on his 2021 curve and 2021 slider offerings. He still punches out a batter an inning and his K-rate has remained steadily in the low-20 percent area since 2016 before spiking to 28 percent this season. He’s also hurt right now and exists in a state of injury at the best of times. Father Time has not been at its most benevolent to Duffy as the years pass. I’d love to tell you he’s going to be a Lance Lynn or someone who reinvents himself in his mid-30s and has a second prime; I just don’t know if the man’s physical body will ever match his desire.
And that’s why, if anyone deserves a For Love of the Game-style ending, a swan song to go out on, it would be Duffy. That the stuff matches the storyline is why he should be the dancing if it happens soon for the Royals.
-Colby Wilson
I challenge you to a duel
What year is this? The Royals and Rays have engaged in back-to-back pitching duels. Both games of the series have ended with 2-1 scorelines. Both lasted less than three hours. Even Wednesday when they played 10 innings! This is very confusing to have happen in 2021.
Mike Minor twirled an abbreviated gem. The command of his fastball was largely strong, the fade on his change was beautiful and he whiffed nine Rays batters, tying a season-high for strikeouts.
Perhaps most astonishingly, of the eight balls the Rays put in play against Minor, he didn’t allow a single hard hit all night.
This is just Soft Contact City. Only one of these balls put in play—the Zunino single in the fourth—had an xBA greater than .280. Unfortunately, that came with a runner on second with two outs and scored the first run of the game.
It was a shame Minor couldn’t be more efficient with his pitches. He lost command at times, walking one in the second and two in the third. The two free passes in that inning came with two outs, which doesn’t help the pitch count. Fortunately, the bullpen was at the ready on Wednesday. Greg Holland, Scott Barlow, Josh Staumont and Jake Brentz combined for four innings of no-hit relief (maybe Colby is on to something about a combined no-no being the second most likely of the Royals’ no-hitter scenarios.)
If you’re a glass-half-empty kind of person, you’ll probably note that the velocity for both Holland and Staumont was down a couple of clicks for both. We aren’t even two full months into the season and fatigue is creeping.
The Royals aren’t unique in dealing with this, but if they’re to leverage any kind of advantage they will have to figure out how to deal with this situation. It’s not going to disappear. Someone else will be feeling what Staumont is feeling at some point. (And good to see Flanny dropping Royals knowledge in the timeline again.)
Try, try, try…and try again
After lobbing deep fly after deep fly to center field only to have the tandem of Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips track down everything in the yard, Andrew Benintendi finally figured out how to hit one they couldn’t catch. Just hit it over the fence. Baseball is so easy sometimes.
I’m kidding about the baseball being easy part.
Extra inning tomfoolery
Look, it’s just a preordained strategy for Mike Matheny. If there’s a free runner on second to open an extra frame, he’s bunting. Sometimes, like if Nicky Lopez is up and the top of the order is lurking, it’s a sound strategy. Other times, like if Aldalberto Mondesi is up and the bottom of the order is coming up behind him…not so much. In this instance, you have three chances. Don’t give one away (and take the bat out of the hands of one of your best hitters) to give an opportunity to the bottom of your lineup. Just swing away.
The Rays had the top of their order up, still had a productive out and won on a single from Manuel Margot. h
Central issues
Orioles 2, Twins 3
In his first start since coming off the IL Michael Pineda went six strong innings for the Twins, allowing just one run while striking out eight. Jorge López (yes, that Jorge López) almost matched him but gave up a three-run bomb to the scorching-hot Miguel Sanó. That was the difference as the Twins have a season-best four-game winning streak. Maybe the Royals can end another streak on Friday.
Cardinals 4, White Sox 0
Joe West, just days after setting the record for most games umpired in MLB history, decided that reliever Giovanny Gallegos had some funny stuff on his hat and confiscated said chapeau for further investigation. Can we get West to umpire every White Sox game for the rest of the year?
Cleveland 0, Tigers 1
José Ureńa and three relievers limited Cleveland to four hits. The Detroit offense ripped a page from the Royals’ playbook to manufacture their run…Double, sac bunt and sac fly provides the lone tally for the victory.
Up next
It’s day baseball under the roof. Brady Singer gets the start for the Royals as they try to win the series against Shane McClanahan. First pitch is scheduled at 2:10 CDT.