Royals motor through Detroit

Quality starting pitching was the theme of the weekend as the Royals take two of three from the Tigers.

What if I told you the Royals scored a total of six runs in a three-game series?

It’s not a good number, you’d say. Maybe they ran into quality pitching in a couple of those games. They might have been able to steal a solitary win. Given the amount of runs, that would be a good outcome.

What if I told you the Royals pitching allowed a total of seven runs in a three-game series?

Now that’s a fairly solid outcome, you’d say. The starting pitching was probably strong, the bullpen was likely nails and it is highly probable that they came away with wins in at least two of those games. With that pitching, anything less would be a disappointment.

What if I told you the Royals were outscored in a three-game series by a tally of 7-6?

I’m a fan of pitching duels, you’d say. I’m a fan of those, too, I’d reply. That feels like a toss-up of a three-game series. Someone won two games, but I’m not sure who.

Obviously, all three of those scenarios played out this weekend in Detroit. The Royals pushed six runs across in the three games. They scored three on Friday in securing a 3-1 victory. Carlos Hernández lacked a bit of the killer instinct, striking out just one in five innings while walking three, but scattered just two hits. Whit Merrifield hit two sacrifice flies.

They scored just one on Saturday, with starter Jon Heasley pitching well, going 5.1 innings scoreless with three punchouts and two walks. Domingo Tapia and Ervin Santana couldn’t record outs though, but they sure could allow runs. Between the two, they got one out and allowed five Tigers to cross the plate.

On Sunday, Kris Bubic went seven innings, allowing two hits and just a walk against six whiffs. Andrew Benintendi drove in the Royals’ first run—because that’s what that dude does in September—and Nicky Lopez plated the second with a…wait for it…sacrifice fly.

To tally up the three preceding paragraphs, that’s 22.1 innings for Royals starters in Detroit over the weekend. Hell, let’s just post it as a line score.

22.1 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 BB, 10 SO

That’s quite a combined performance from Messrs. Hernández, Heasley and Bubic. Let’s roll through the starts.

Hernández battled on Friday

The Friday outing from Hernández was a pitcher who battled despite not having his best stuff. Especially in the first inning where he gifted Detroit three baserunners (on an HBP and two walks) and required 30 pitches to record three outs.

That was a spiked slider to Jonathan Schoop, Detroit’s second batter of the game. It was emblematic. the kind of difficulty Hernández had getting pitches over the plate in the first.

Hernández had struggled in his previous outing. Recall on September 15 against Oakland, he was knocked around for seven runs in four innings. After that start, I lamented that Mike Matheny had left Hernández out for too long to absorb too much damage. I’m not sold the long layoff (nine days) between starts did much to recharge the batteries. Hernández recorded just five misses on on 42 swings. Overall, he finished his evening with a meager 16 percent CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs). I continue to maintain Hernández has been worn down by an elevated workload. After averaging 97.8 mph on his fastball when he entered the Royals’ starting rotation in July, his heater is clocking in at 96.5 mph in September.

The good news is, after those familiar first inning Royals starting pitching struggles Hernández found his pitching equilibrium and, despite not having his best stuff early, was able to navigate through five.

Behold a perfectly located changeup on an 0-2 pitch where Hernández jumped ahead on a curveball down followed by a fastball up.

Even in an imperfect start, there are a few gems scattered about.

Heasley commands on Saturday

Jon Heasley has been impressive in his two major league starts, and his second outing was much better than his first.

His command was really impressive, especially on the changeup.

Here’s one of those delivered on 3-2 to Jeimer Candelario in the bottom of the fifth.

The Royals’ defense was on display for most of the weekend. Twice in the first four innings, Heasley allowed the leadoff batter to reach. Twice, said batter was erased on an inning-ending double play. There was also this from Nicky Lopez.

That’s at 101 mph off the bat. Mercy. I’m not certain that Lopez will win a Gold Glove after this season, but his case is strong and only improving.

Say, time for an interlude from the starting pitching…

Nicky Lopez, Professional Hitter

Alas, Lopez took the collar on Friday, going 0-4. He failed to get on base, snapping his consecutive game streak for reaching base at 31 games.

He rallied on Saturday and Sunday, collecting three hits and driving in the Royals’ second run of the game on Sunday with a sac fly lineout.

Watch this.

I have played this gif endlessly for over 24 hours, trying to decide if this was a sacrifice. If Detroit’s Wily Peralta stays out of the way of his third baseman Candalario, Lopez is going to be thrown out. On the other hand, it’s a perfectly placed bunt, one that you would say was intended for a hit if no one was on base. But these are the Royals. They like their small ball. It worked in this situation, but I maintain I’ve seen Lopez square around far too often in the first inning trying to move Merrifield 90 feet. I wish they’d knock this off.

Bubic shoves on Sunday

With 29 starts under his belt, Kris Bubic qualifies as the wily starting pitching veteran in this weekend’s series. So all he did was deliver his finest start of 2021—and really his career—on Sunday.

He recorded just one swinging strike against the 30 combined changeups and curves he offered Detroit batters. It was the fastball—a well-located 91 mph heater–that did most of the heavy lifting.

That pitch, and getting ahead in the count, were keys to his afternoon. Bubic faced 25 batters and jumped ahead of 12 of them with first-pitch strikes.

Two other Detroit batters put the first pitch in play for outs.

Those pitches in the chart above are mostly well located. The middle-middle fastballs are ones where you’re happy a swing isn’t forthcoming, but if the opposing bats are going to take a pitch to get settled in, go right ahead and get one over. But curves on the edges and a cluster of fastballs and a changeup down…It’s a nice way to make a living as a starter.

Bubic allowed just five baserunners all afternoon. He twice had runners on first and second with two outs. This is how he handled the first instance.

A bit messy as Cam Gallagher dropped the strike, but that’s another well-executed pitch. Just an overall outstanding outing from Bubic.

Did Salvy hit a home run?

Don’t be silly. The Royals scored only six runs all weekend, remember? And three of them were courtesy of sacrifice flies.

Perez just managed two hits all weekend, both on Sunday. One of which went for a double. He remains on 47 homers, so if he’s going to set a franchise record and/or hit the magic number of 50, it will happen this week at The K. (Unless he goes crazy this afternoon in Cleveland.)

Up next

The Royals re-route to Cleveland, to make up last week’s rainout. It’s a lunchtime affair with Jackson Kowar facing Cal Quantrill in a 12:10 CDT start. Quantrill faced the Royals on Tuesday, holding the Royals to a run over 6.2 innings.