Michael Lorenzen signs up for a return engagement with the Royals

With Lorenzen back in the fold, the Royals are building up some pitching depth.

I have no idea if JJ Picollo and the rest of the Royals’ front office was snowed in like the rest of Kansas City over the weekend. I do like to think that he was, though. And I like to think that with the boredom that comes from being trapped in one’s home with little to do, he was inspired to make some moves.

So one day after signing Cavan Biggio to a minor league deal to be a “super-utility” man, the Royals and Picollo sprang back into action late Monday, announcing the signing of Michael Lorenzen to a one-year deal. It is reported to be worth $5.5 million with a buyout on a mutual option for $1.5 million. There is also $1 million in unspecified performance bonuses.

Some people build snow forts when they’re stuck at home. JJ Picollo signs baseball players.

Of course, we know all about Michael Lorenzen. This is a move that has made a ton of sense and felt kind of inevitable since the end of last season. He arrived in Kansas City at the trade deadline last year to solidify the back of the rotation as the Royals staked a spot in the postseason for the first time in nine years. His first four starts were good, culminating in seven shutout innings against the Angels on August 21. In those four outings, Lorenzen tossed a total of 22.2 innings where he struck out 16, walked nine and pitched to a sterling 1.99 ERA.

Merely “good” you scoff? That ERA is fantastic from your fifth starter!

Indeed! More on that in a moment.

Things derailed for Lorenzen in his start on August 27 against the Guardians. He left that one after just 1.2 innings with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The injury sidelined him for about a month. When he returned, he made just one start before exiting with what the Royals termed as “lower body fatigue.” In other words, Lorenzen wasn’t comfortable pushing on his hamstring anymore. Caution was the smart play there.

It just underscored how unfortunate the timing of Lorenzen’s injury was. With the team in the playoff hunt and with the minor leagues pretty much done and dusted by the point he was ready to return, there was no time (or place) for a rehab stint.

He made two appearances for the club in the postseason. In his first, he came into the game in the bottom of the sixth with the Royals up by one and runners on first and second. He got Aaron Judge to strikeout but allowed a one-run single to Austin Wells to tie the game. Lorenzen ultimately took the loss when he allowed two singles in the next frame, resulting in the Yankees’ final, and decisive, run.

His second outing was much better, and a fitting coda to his 2024 season, but the Royals just couldn’t get past the damn Yankees.

Lorenzen has an extensive repertoire he uses on the mound. It’s not Seth Lugo deep, but Lorenzen still brings plenty of options. While he was with Texas to open the season, he was throwing his usual four-seamer, sinker and change for the most part. He had experimented with a sweeper, but was probably discouraged from throwing by the Ranger organization, due to Dr. Keith Meister, the Rangers’ head team physician. From last March:

Meister, director of the Texas Metroplex Institute for Sports Medicine, acknowledges the dangers velocity poses. But, he said, “spin is worse.”

The sweeper puts tremendous stress on the inner elbow, Meister said. The power “movement” changeup, as Meister calls it, also puts inordinate strain on the arm. “And to throw these pitches,” he said, “you have to squeeze the crap out of the baseball.”

Once in Kansas City, Lorenzen scrapped his what had been his primary fourth pitch, a cutter, in favor of the previously verboten sweeper. He also ditched the slider.

(Ignore the data points for September when he was returning from injury. Far too small of a sample.)

Throwing the sweeper exclusively to right-handed batters, they hit just .167 against the pitch with an expected batting average of .116. Contrast that to the results for Lorenzen’s slider for the entire 2024 season: A .368 opponents batting average (a .298 xBA) and a slugging percentage of .632. By Run Value, the slider was Lorenzen’s worst pitch. By far.

A simple, yet obvious, adjustment. Meister may very well be correct about spin being more dangerous to a pitcher, but every arm is different. It’s up to the team and the pitcher to decide what’s feasible. What cannot be ignored is that Lorenzen was a much better pitcher after he arrived in Kansas City. Witness:

Devastating. And fun!

Lorenzen posted a 0.5 fWAR in 28.2 innings in Kansas City. He had a 0.3 fWAR over 101.2 innings for the Rangers.

This offseason, the Royals had two starting pitchers who were free agents: Lorenzen and Michael Wacha. Both have returned to Kansas City. There can be no better endorsement of what’s going on with the Royals pitching coaches and whatever they have in place for a pitching lab. The organization finally has good pitching coaching and combine that with a ballpark that suppresses home runs and you have a dream destination for pitchers. Players have most certainly noticed.

Lorenzen has thrown almost as many sweepers in one month with the Royals as he threw in five months with the Rangers. His fastball shapes still aren’t dominant, but the righty is more of a weapon when he’s throwing the sweeper, and kudos to Kansas City for seeing this underused pitch and upping its usage.

This new Royals regime has done this with a few of their pitchers, upping certain breaking balls and reducing the usage of fastballs and other harder pitches. This looks like another sign that they’ve upgraded their pitching coaching and development. One simply cannot give Brian Sweeney, Zach Bove and the rest of the pitching coaching staff enough credit.

Lorenzen gives the Royals some of the pitching depth they lost with the trade of Brady Singer. No, I wouldn’t count on Lorenzen to replace all of Singer’s innings, and he’s not going to put up a 1.57 ERA, but the back of the rotation now features Lorenzen, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, Alec Marsh and presumably Kyle Wright all vying for one of the two open spots. There won’t be enough rotation spots for all of them, but there can be an opportunity in the bullpen to pick up some key innings. This staff feels like it has some quality depth. That depth will be necessary (and useful) as they try to return to October for the second consecutive season.