Mayhem on Opening Day
Royals prevail 14-10 in the longest nine inning game in franchise history.
Where do you start? What did we watch? (Well, at least those of us who are blessed with Bally Sports.) This game went off the rails immediately. It ended 4:26 later, the Royals coming out on top 14-10, the longest nine inning game in franchise history.
I think we were all entertained. It was a helluva way to spend a coffee break that stretched into cocktail hour that carried over into dinner time and ended when the dessert course arrived. (I mark time by food and beverage. There’s nothing wrong with that.)
Now hang with me for a moment… but this Opening Day reminded me of the Wild Card game. No, it’s wasn’t as important or nearly as epic. Rather it was a game where so…much…happened. Heck, just the first inning alone. Where do you even begin to process the full nine innings?
How about at the beginning?
Keller gets rocked…
Starter Brad Keller came out of the chute pumping gas. And I mean gassssss. The first couple of blips that registered on the virtual strike zone were in the neighborhood of 97 mph. This is very unlike Keller as he averaged 92.8 on the heater in 2020. It was 93.7 the year prior.
In fact, it took Keller all of 11 pitches to throw a pitch that had a faster velocity than any pitch he threw all of last year. Let’s extrapolate that even further: In all of 2020, Keller threw three pitches that were 96 mph or faster, topping out at 96.6 mph.
On Thursday, Keller threw four pitches 96 mph or faster, topping out at 96.7 mph.
Keller was up in the zone on his fastball, but that’s not normally a big issue for the right-hander. He usually lives there as it plays off the tight slider he spins low and away to right-handed batters. It was limited action, but he didn’t feature the slider much on Thursday, throwing it in only 21 percent of his offerings, compared to the 38 percent of the time he threw the pitch in 2020.
The Ranger hitters stung a couple—especially the first two hitters of the game who both doubled—but they also had their share of bloops and bleeders fall in. And it wasn’t as if one pitch in particular was betraying Keller. The hits were coming on the four-seamer, the sinker and the slider.
Regardless, it was a bit unsettling watching Keller struggle. Especially coming after his 2020 season. Keller’s performance was insane last summer. He surrendered just four extra-base hits total all year. He allowed a single run in 33 innings of pitching at The K. These numbers were unsustainable and it was even likely that at some point in 2021, Keller would have an outing where he got roughed up and gave up some doubles and runs. But to give it all back in the first inning of the first start of the new season? The calendar gives not a damn, friends.
The Royals’ offense rolls
Once the Royals took the lead in the fourth, it felt like they had already played a nine inning game. It also felt like they weren’t going to give that lead back. The Win Probability graph from Fangraphs tells a tale of two games. Hell, drill down a little further and there were two games within the first inning.
The Royals are now 19-34 on Opening Days in franchise history and let’s be honest, it’s surprising to learn there have been 19 wins. For years it seemed like the Royals would open against Baltimore or Detroit or Toronto and the anticipation of the day would quickly give way to the disappointment of a defeat. Even recently (2009-2014), the Royals dropped six consecutive Opening Day games. When the Rangers jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the top of the first it just felt like another one of those Opening Days. But to come back with five of their own in the bottom of the first? Insanity.
There was a real back and forth in the early innings.
There was a real back and forth in the early innings. The game didn’t get settled until the Royals tacked on some insurance in their half of the seventh.
Play of the game
Soler Power is back. All hail Soler Power.
Jorge Soler’s dinger tied the game at 8, and as you can see from the WP graph above, it titled the odds in their favor for the first time since the first inning.
The pitch Soler crushed was a center-cut fastball on a 1-1 pitch in the lower third of the zone.
It’s a pitch just below Soler’s true Happy Zone, but he can elevate fastballs from right-handers in that location from time to time. He had a .358 ISO on pitches in that location from righties in 2019 but it dipped to a .250 ISO in 2020. Here’s Soler’s spray chart against fastballs from right-handed pitchers in that location.
(Not sure why it has “In Progress” for the grey plots. That should read as “Field Outs.”) For Soler to take a pitch in that location and to hit a dinger to the right side of the batter’s eye? On a day when really, the ball shouldn’t have been flying out of The K? That’s some kind of power.
Oh…and it was the fifth hardest-hit home run in the Statcast era at Kauffman Stadium.
It’s easy to get carried away in the euphoria of a successful Opening Day where it seemed like everything went right for the Royals’ offense. The challenge is maintaining an even keel after just one game out of what should be 162.
BUT COME ON!!!!
The Soler homer was worth .122 Win Probability Added, making it the most important plate appearance on a day where every PA felt crucial for the Royals.
Welcome to Kansas City
The cliché goes something like if you watch closely, you’ll always see something new at a ballgame. I believe this qualifies as something we’ve never seen before:
Lordy. Have a Royals debut, Michael A. Taylor.
I wrote extensively about Taylor’s revamped swing, where he eliminated much of his leg kick while opting for a quieter toe tap. In 2018, Taylor had a large kick while loading his swing.
Taylor has always had some power, but he also features plenty of swing and miss, striking out around a third of all his plate appearances. He felt the leg kick and rather active swing made him a streaky hitter, so in 2019, in an effort for more consistent results, he ditched the kick and calmed his swing in favor of making more contact. The results weren’t quite there immediately, but he stuck with his plan.
You saw his current swing on display today, going opposite field to put the Royals within two in the bottom of the third.
And let’s not forget his defense! Twice (twice!) Taylor gunned down runners at home. Both came at points in the game where it felt as if the Rangers were ready to flip on the afterburners and blow the Royals away. His first assist came in the first and kept the Rangers lead at five runs. His second assist came in the third where the Rangers had a three-run lead. Sure it was a huge deal to keep runs off the board in those situations, but damn if it didn’t feel like just getting the outs were incredibly important.
The other new guys
On a day when everyone contributed, it was great to see some other fantastic debuts.
Carlos Santana went 1-3 with three walks and two runs scored. Mark it down as “as advertised.”
Kyle Isbel went 3-5 with two RBI. He collected his first MLB hit in the bottom of the first when his single with the bases loaded scored Santana.
Andrew Benintendi went 1-5 with a walk and two runs scored.
The one who shoved
Carlos Hernández entered the game in the third with the task so often entrusted to the long reliever: Keep his team in the game to give the offense a chance to tally a few runs. He got off to a bit of a rocky start allowing a single, a walk and then back-to-back singles to plate two more for the Rangers in his first four batters faced.
From there, he absolutely shoved.
Hernández retired the next eight batters he faced (the other out came on the Taylor assist at home), including five on strikeouts. He was cooking with pure gas. Hernández threw 28 fastballs over his three innings of work. Eight of those clocked 99 mph or higher with two truly hitting triple-digits.
He had eight misses on 22 swings. Six came on his fastballs. Pitcher Wins are overrated and irrelevant in determining the value of a pitcher. But after the carnage at The K on Thursday, Hernández was definitely deserving of the W. It was his first major league win, and while I’ll continue to discount it as a stat, I realize to the players that first win is a very big deal. Congrats to Hernández.
The return of The Wade Davis Experience
So…many…stories. Davis made his return to The K, faced two batters, threw eight pitches and got two strikeouts. Most impressive was the heat. Davis’s four-seam velocity has dropped each year since 2016, bottoming out last year at an average of 91.4 mph. On Thursday, Davis fired five heaters at an average of 94.5 mph.
It was just good to see him lock down another Royals win.
Quotable
“The best Opening Day I’ve ever been a part of.” —Mike Matheny
It’s rare that a team lives up to it’s preseason billing immediately. The additions to the offense have ratcheted expectations and damn if those weren’t fulfilled in the very first inning. And for the most part they continued. Run down the lineup and you can see nearly every position player contributing almost exactly the way you probably envisioned back in February.
It is only one game, but how exciting was that?
Up Next
The Royals are off Friday which, given the exhaustion we collectively feel after that marathon, is probably a good thing. They’re back in action at The K on Saturday at 1:10. Mike Minor will face Kohei Arihara.
Soler's swing was the best I've ever seen him take, a thing of beauty. Simple, straight to the ball, perfectly balanced, no wasted movement. Let's hope that's a sign of things to come. Often he "looks" like he's trying to muscle up on swings.
Hernandez seemed to nibble around until he realized that most batters aren't going to hit his fastball when he throws it 100 mph. He reminded me of a young Kelvin Herrera as far as stuff. I don't remember him hitting triple digits which he did regularly yesterday. I think his future is in the bullpen and not as a starter.
Isbel was impressive again. First AB he was able to just get his bat on a two strike offspeed pitch that we was kind of fooled on, and loop it into the outfield. Second hit demonstrated his ability to hit it to the opposite field. Good stuff....
You hope the offense continues. For years the bottom of the lineup has been a black hole. Hopefully no more. We don't have one MVP type guy like a Mike Trout offensively. We need the whole lineup to produce.
I was not expecting Wade Davis to be used in a save situation this early. Probably only happened because Holland got into trouble.
Need to correct the reference to “the White Sox hitters”; otherwise of course spectacular. What a day!