Four things the Royals need to address immediately
Questionable decisions impacting the rotation and the lineup have backfired in spectacular fashion of late. It's time for the Royals to make corrections before things spiral further out of control.
Eleven.
Some things have been bothering me of late. Beyond the losses. It’s some of the decisions we’ve seen during this streak. There have been some real head-scratchers, some moves with a high level of risk that have backfired and some others…
I’ve been rather praiseworthy of manager Mike Matheny in this space and honestly, that’s surprised me. When he was hired after the 2019 season, it felt predictable, easy…and mostly kind of wrong. Well, I’d say the way he’s managed the Royals over his first three months in charge that I was the one who was wrong. Mea culpa! Matheny has seemed to thrive in managing his bullpen, sorting out lineups, incorporating data and perhaps most importantly, his fresh voice was welcomed in a clubhouse.
Losing streak aside, I continue to think he’s mostly doing well by his team. But some recent moves regarding playing time should be examined. There are also some roster moves that are not Matheny’s to make. Some of these have impacted the club during yet another historic double-digit losing streak.
A season that began with promise is now circling the drain. Dayton Moore says he likes to wait for 40 games to be played before he assesses his team and makes any impactful moves. The Royals have played 35 games heading into a four-game set in Chicago, starting tomorrow. What’s the difference in moving a day or three early? The time is now for action to reverse the slide.
Warning: Critical spirit ahead. Here are the current issues impacting the Royals and what to do about them.
Daniel Lynch in the starting rotation
Let me preface this by saying I’m a huge believer in Daniel Lynch. For me, he’s the Royals’ top pitching prospect at this moment. You know what’s coming next…
BUT!
After three painful outings, it’s apparent he’s just not ready for the big leagues. You can see potential on his pitches, especially on display at times on Thursday in Detroit. The intent was to establish the fastball early and it was lively up in the zone in the high 90s. The slider had some depth. The change brought some sexy fade. Lynch just can’t put it all together at this point to consistently get big league hitters out. The second inning was a prime example of that. The Tigers were waiting on the heat and going the opposite way. They strung together a bunch of hits on elevated fastballs and change ups that were centered away but ultimately caught too much of the plate.
The Tigers collected five hits and a sac fly in the fatal second inning. Two of those hits were off the change. In both those instances, Salvador Perez set the target down. Lynch left them elevated.
The two elevated fastballs were the first two hits of the inning. I’m not sure why anyone with 95+ mph heat just doesn’t work Miguel Cabrera inside. The low fastball that went for a hit was on a 2-0 pitch that was honestly a surprising swing given the count and location of the pitch. The sequence of opposite-field hits on fastballs and changeups reveals a lineup that was comfortable against Lynch. There was nothing menacing about that inning. Lynch wasn’t fooling anyone.
It’s not difficult to see how Lynch would destroy a hitter’s will to live in A-ball or Double-A. But major league hitters are hunting fastball and adjusting to his secondaries. He’s been inconsistent in his command and getting hit.
The Royals gambled by calling up Lynch and shifting Jakob Junis to the bullpen. While I still understand the reasoning behind the move to bump Junis from the rotation (he needs to have his innings managed, he was getting hit hard just ahead of the move, the bullpen was weakened with injuries to key relievers), it still seems like a massive miscalculation at this point. Even given the struggles we’ve seen from Junis in a handful of his relief outings. Maybe the Royals had some data that indicated Junis’s successes as a starter were more the product of luck. But when you bump a guy from the rotation who had given you three strong starts out of four, you’d better be insanely confident in what will happen next.
Now a move has to be made in the rotation. How about Kris Bubic who has been brought in to mop up in two of Lynch’s abbreviated starts as next in line? Bubic was an early candidate to break spring training with the Royals as part of the rotation. He made 10 starts last year and pitched relatively well in his debut season. Except he struggled with his command and the Royals felt like he wasn’t prepared for the start of the regular season. They kept him at the alternate site to work on mechanics and such. It’s fairly clear at this point that whatever Bubic needed to do to improve his command has been done.
If there’s any doubt about Bubic’s suitability for the rotation, he’s made a pair of emphatic statements in his last two relief appearances.
10.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 7 BB, 8 SO
That’s twice he’s bailed out the Royals and their bullpen. With Ervin Santana probably unavailable after throwing 40 pitches following a short outing (3.2 innings) from Brady Singer on Tuesday, can you imagine the relief pitching carnage if Bubic hadn’t been able to complete five innings? Especially with a double-header in Chicago on Friday as part of a four-game series.
Bubic needs to limit the walks because eventually some hits are going to start dropping, but you can’t deny the change looks sharp. On Thursday, Bubic went to work establishing a 90 mph fastball on the edges, which will always be key for him throwing at that velocity. The change comes at about 11 mph slower than the fastball with some fantastic fade.
Bubic needs to be inserted into the starting rotation immediately. He’s stretched out and has been mostly impressive in his last two appearances. Lynch needs to take some time at Triple-A to refine his pitches and find some consistency.
Jorge Soler in right field
I’m on record for saying that I don’t think Jorge Soler is an awful outfielder. He’s not the worst. But he’s not a good option to run out there every single day. The ball may not find you 100 percent of the time, but it will certainly find you that if you spend too many innings with a glove on your hand…you will eventually be exposed.
We saw that on Thursday. Not one, not two, but three times Soler didn’t make plays on balls that almost any other right fielder on this roster would have made. Start with the Miguel Cabrera fly to open the second inning. A catchable ball with almost any other right fielder.
And then the Eric Haase double. A poor jump.
Out of 96 outfielders on the Statcast leaderboard for outfield jump, Soler ranks 93rd. According to their data, he’s 2.7 feet slower than average on the jump with a slow initial reaction and a slow burst of speed. His route running grades as ok, but that’s probably because he’s so slow he has time to make adjustments to get on a line to the ball.
After Soler was finished with suboptimal jumps, he committed an error on the JaCoby Jones single. This allowed Jones to advance to second but ultimately didn’t end up damaging the cause.
It’s was a cornucopia of (mostly) costly defensive miscues. The eye test and the data tell you the same thing. So why, exactly, are we experiencing this? Why, a season after Soler logged just 61 innings in right, is he being asked to play defense on a now almost nightly basis? We go back to this again and again, but it’s part of the fallout from the Adalberto Mondesi injury that pushed Nicky Lopez to shortstop and moved Whit Merrifield back to second. It’s understandable that those two players have to form the up-the-middle portion of the infield in Mondesi’s absence, but there just has to be a better option than Soler in right. If you look again at the table, you’ll see Hunter Dozier’s name there. That’s not what you want, but he is a better option.
And what about that old saw about a poor defender carrying his troubles with him to the plate? Or maybe it’s about a player who can relax when played at his natural position. Whatever. What I’m getting at is Soler is usually better at the plate when he’s not also playing in the field. It’s kind of nice that Matheny has played Soler so much in right these days because it gives the next table some nice balance as far as games played and plate appearances.
That’s not just a small sample split favoriting the narrative. I want to draw attention to his tOPS+ which is the OPS+ relative for Soler split by position. He’s just way more productive as a DH. And he doesn’t cost runs in the outfield! It’s a win-win to have him DH.
It’s not just limited to the small sample of 2021. It’s been this way since Soler joined the Royals. Here’s his production as a DH and as a right fielder since the 2017 season.
Soler is just better for the team when he’s a designated hitter. The Royals and Matheny need to figure out a way to get him out of the field.
Ryan O’Hearn in the lineup
The effect of Soler attempting to patrol right field means they’ve created an opening for Ryan O’Hearn to be the designated hitter. Which begs the question: Why?
Since a debut season in 2018 where he hit .262/.353/.597 in 170 plate appearances with 12 home runs, O’Hearn has hit just .196/.287/.355 with 18 home runs in 544 PAs covering 2019 to 2021. I’m aware the Royals spent most of the winter on the prowl for a left-handed bat but that doesn’t mean O’Hearn should be awarded a regular job just because they couldn’t find enough balance besides adding Andrew Benintendi. Roll with your best options.
O’Hearn just has never made sense to me on this roster. Playing him at DH and forcing Soler to the field weakens two spots.
Give Hunter Dozier a spa day or something
Hunter Dozier is in a funk where he’s hitless in his last 30 at bats covering seven games. Using the Baseball-Reference batting span finder, here are the 10 worst stretches of at least 29 plate appearances covering seven games:
Some good players have had slumps. It happens.
Yes, Dozier is generally hitting the ball hard. He has a Hard-Hit Rate of 46.8 percent and his average exit velocity is 91.3 mph. Both of those would be the best averages of his career. Yet his current BABIP is .153. Dozier is hitting into some awful luck. It has to be absolutely miserable to be doing things right as a hitter and not reaping any rewards. The problem now is that it’s beginning to creep into his approach at the plate. He’s chasing quite a bit now. These are his swings and misses over the last week.
And the results on his contact are extremely suboptimal. This is just the saddest radial chart that shows his launch angle on batted balls since May 6.
Sometimes, the baseball gods just have to be acknowledged. Sit Dozier down for an extended period to give him a chance to get his mind right.
For the lineup, help may be on the way.
The 21st gives Mondesi a week of games before rejoining the Royals. That’s probably the safest bet. That’s great and everything, but the Royals can’t wait for Mondesi at this point. Corrections need to be made now.
Because of the ill-advised moves outlined above, we are now at a critical point of the 2021 season. Action must be taken to correct the results from these moves. Put Bubic in the rotation. Get Soler out of the field. Call up either Edward Olivares (who has hit in all 10 games he’s played and is currently batting .378/.452/.622 or Kelvin Gutierrez (.306/.342/.444) or even Kyle Isbel (who seems to have his strikeouts under control for the moment and his hitting .303/.378/.354) if you’re just dying for another left-handed bat. Whatever. Don’t wait any longer.
Central issues
Twins 2, White Sox 4
The Sox completed a three-game sweep over the Twins. Combined with their rampage through Kansas City last weekend, that’s six in a row for Chicago.
Tim Anderson led off the game with a home run for the White Sox and Lance Lynn worked five innings while striking out nine.
Cleveland 4, Mariners 2
Cleveland had a front-row seat for the Logan Gilbert/Jarred Kelenic show on Monday but that took a back seat to Zach Pleasac who took a no-hitter into the eighth.
The Royals have lost 11 in a row before the quarter point of the season and are still comfortably in third place. The Central is insane.
Up next
Doubleheader Friday so it’s either two chances to end the streak or the rare opportunity to tack on two losses in a single day. Depends on your perspective, I suppose. Brad Keller will start against Lucas Giolito in the first game at 2:10. The Royals will move Junis back into a starting role against Michael Kopech in the nightcap at 7:10.