Saving the best for last

The Royals close out the 2022 portion of the home schedule with a historic comeback.

If I didn’t see it, I wouldn’t believe it.

The Royals 2022 home finale was that insane. That…bananas.

Choose your adjective to describe the state of this victory when the Royals were trailing 11-2 after five and a half. Unlikely. Improbable. Impossible. The Cardiac Kids, these Royals are not. Basically, when they fall behind, the game is finished. Really. Tuesday against the Twins was the first time in 2022 the Royals won a ballgame where they trailed by three or more runs. At any point. That’s…something.

As if to prove Tuesday’s comeback victory wasn’t some sort of one-off fluke, the Royals spotted the Mariners an 11-run lead before they decided to rally and finish off the visitors from Seattle. It matched the largest comeback win in franchise history, the other coming in 1979 against the Milwaukee Brewers. (Click the link. You won’t be disappointed in the box score and game log. Willie Wilson hit a go-ahead three-run inside the park home run with two outs in the ninth.)

The 2022 version of the ultimate comeback didn’t wait until the ninth. The Royals struck with extreme malice in the sixth and held on for the victory. The Win Probability chart from Baseball Savant resembles one of those extreme roller coaster drops where you lift out of your seat and only the safety harness keeps you alive.

The fifth inning where Seattle scored eight runs of their own truly felt like a white flag moment. (Honestly, there was a whole bit I was workshopping about how this Seattle series mirrored Matheny’s tenure in Kansas City. Chaos always steps on plans when you start writing a baseball recap in the fifth. I’ll never learn.)

Three walks, a hit by pitch and a single brought the curtain down on starter Max Castillo’s day. Matheny then turned to Amir Garrett with the bases loaded and the Royals down a run. It was here that it just kind of felt like Matheny said to hell with everything, if the fire is smoldering, may as well dump a whole tank of gas on the damn thing.

It’s not like there are a bunch of stellar options out in the bullpen, but of the relievers available to Matheny, no one walks more batters per nine than Garrett. So bringing him in with the bases loaded…bold strategy. Let’s just say no one was surprised it didn’t go smoothly. Garrett retired the first batter he faced then hit Jesse Winker (causing him to leave the game), walked a batter and allowed a single. Four batters in and a one-run Royals deficit ballooned to four. After a strikeout for the second out in the frame, Garrett allowed another single and his afternoon was finished.

Jose Cuas came in and allowed a single before recording the third out. The final line on the inning from three pitchers:

8 runs, 4 hits (all singles), 4 walks, 2 HBP

I mean…that’s just the Royals bullpen in 2022. Well, the worst of it, anyway. I shouldn’t besmirch everyone in the relief corps, but still…There’s been plenty of bad to go along with whatever amount of good you can find.

So that’s that. Eight runs in the inning and a 9-2 lead for the Mariners. They tacked on a couple more runs against Cuas in the sixth for good measure, an inning that featured three more walks.

The Royals trailed 11-2 heading into the bottom of the sixth.

Then, all hell broke loose.

This is one of those games—one of those innings—where we really have to go batter by batter to see how they did it. I’ll walk through the inning below, along with the Royals Win Probability after the plate appearance and the score.

Buckle up. You’re liable to get launched into orbit.

Vinnie Pasquantino strikes out
Royals Win Probability - 0%
Mariners 11 - Royals 2

This is correct. Facing an 11-run deficit in the sixth, the Royals had zero chance at winning this ballgame. When Pasquantino whiffed to open the bottom half of the frame, the Royals had 11 outs to score 10 runs.

We’ve watched these Royals all season. I think all of us would’ve agreed that 0% hit the odds square on the button.

Edward Olivares walks
Royals Win Probability - 0%
Mariners 11 - Royals 2

It’s so grim, not even a base runner can move the needle.

Michael Massey homers
Royals Win Probability - 1%
Mariners 11 - Royals 4

A two-run dinger barely registers.

Massey is a dude with plus power who hit 21 home run for Quad Cities in A-ball last summer. He opened 2022 in Double-A Northwest Arkansas where he tagged nine homers and posted a .191 ISO before he got the bump to Omaha. He flat out raked for the Storm Chasers, hitting .325/.392/.595, good for a 157 wRC+, meaning he was 57 percent better than his Triple-A peers. It’s like he just decided that this was his age 24 season and it was time to punch the accelerator.

Since arriving in The Show, he’s more than held his own, hitting .253/.325/.384. It’s a 101 wRC+. Yeah, the power hasn’t exactly made the jump along with him, but it’s still present, you know? And it can manifest itself like this:

It was a legit big fly.

I’m excited to see what Massey can do as he settles in as a big leaguer.

Ryan O’Hearn walks
Royals Win Probability - 1%
Mariners 11 - Royals 4

Castillo’s last hitter on the afternoon was O’Hearn. The Mariner starter couldn’t locate at all by this point. His first three pitches missed badly. The fourth, a pipe shot, was wisely watched by O’Hearn. The Royals needed base runners at this point, so see if you can push Castillo to the brink. Amazing.

Hunter Dozier walks
Royals Win Probability - 2%
Mariners 11 - Royals 4

Against reliever Matthew Festa, Dozier worked a nine-pitch walk laying off a couple of sliders that just missed nipping the lower corner. Helluva plate appearance.

I did not have O’Hearn and Dozier drawing back-to-back walks on my Royals Bingo Card.

Drew Waters singles
Royals Win Probability - 4%
Mariners 11 - Royals 4

Hey now! Waters dropped a little blooper up the middle. At 69 MPH off the bat and a 22-degree launch angle, it had an xBA of .900 which tells you batted balls with these types of metrics tend to find that no-man’s land between the infield and the outfield.

O’Hearn had to make sure the ball did find that spot, so he wasn’t able to score. The bases were loaded with the Royals’ lineup set to flip over.

MJ Melendez grounds into a force out
Royals Win Probability - 3%
Mariners 11 - Royals 5

This is a nice moment to remind you that making outs, generally, no matter the situation, is a bad outcome. Melendez rolled over to second (really the shortstop, but the shift…) and a run scored, but the force play weighs heavier in this outcome and the Royals’ Win Probability took a step back.

The Royals need to score seven runs before they make 10 outs.

Bobby Witt Jr. doubles
Royals Win Probability - 7%
Mariners 11 - Royals 7

It was a perfect fall day in Kansas City, with a cloudless sky. That, and a brisk breeze, made baseballs hit in the air something of an adventure. Witt put an inside-out swing on a pitch from Matt Brash, who just entered the game in an effort to finish off the inning. It was an easy swing, but under normal conditions, I don’t think it would’ve been an issue. Mariners center fielder Jarred Kelnic seemed to have a bead on it, but loses it late and it drops for a double.

Melendez, running with the crack of the bat, scores easily.

Even though Witt isn’t going to win the Rookie of the Year award, he’s having a really good first season. The next step will be to improve the plate discipline so he can take a walk With a current 4.5 percent BB%, he’s in Salvy Perez territory. That only works for Salvy Perez.

Speaking of which…

Salvador Perez walks
Royals Win Probability - 8%
Mariners 11 - Royals 7

WHAT?!?!

Salvy not only walked but he fell behind 0-2 and drew a walk! That alone should’ve moved that Win Probability needle to 98%. At least that’s what I think. Damn the computer.

Brash did the correct thing, throwing sliders off the plate when he was ahead after wasting a knuckle curve. Except…he threw them so far off the plate that Perez wasn’t tempted.

Even though Win Probability didn’t exactly agree, this was probably the first moment where anyone thought the Royals could do this.

Vinnie Pasquantino walks
Royals Win Probability - 12%
Mariners 11 - Royals 7

Pasquantino, who you will recall led off the inning by striking out against starter Castillo, didn’t see a single pitch in the zone in this plate appearance. Asked to secure the final out of the inning to protect the lead, Brash threw eight consecutive balls.

The walk and the fact the bases were now loaded, pushed the Royals’ Win Probability to double-digits for the first time in the inning.

Edward Olivares singles
Royals Win Probability - 19%
Mariners 11 - Royals 8

At 104.3 MPH off the bat, this was the hardest-hit ball of the inning, a grounder to third that absolutely destroyed Ty France. Fine…it didn’t actually destroy France, but he couldn’t do a thing with it except watch it take a wicked high hop off the heel of his glove.

They don’t call it the hot corner for nothin’, folks!

Michael Massey singles
Royals Win Probability - 39%
Mariners 11 - Royals 10

Damn Olivares for hitting that scorcher, because if he hadn’t, Massey would’ve had the hardest and softest hit balls in play in that inning. His home run opened the scoring way back when. This one was a little flare at 57 MPH off the bat against new reliever Erik Swanson (the fourth Mariner pitcher of the inning). It was just out of the reach of France beyond third base.

Again, the two-out bonus was in play as everyone was off with contact. Even Vinnie was able to score from second without a throw.

Ryan O’Hearn doubles
Royals Win Probability - 73%
Mariners 11 - Royals 12

And it’s the much-maligned O’Hearn with the dagger.

Given the rope down the line, there was no doubt that Massey would motor around from first with the go-ahead run. The double gave the Royals an improbable lead and bumped their Win Probability a whopping 34 percentage points.

It was the play of the day.

O’Hearn was lifted for a pinch runner. If that was his Kauffman Stadium swan song—and it should be—it’s a helluva way to exit.

Hunter Dozier singles
Royals Win Probability - 82%
Mariners 11 - Royals 13

The inning is finished off in spectacular Royals (and typical Dozier) fashion as he’s gunned down trying to leg a single into a double. Yes, a TOOTBLAN ended the Royals’ second-best inning in franchise history.

Dozier has now run into 10 outs on the bases. TEN! The next closest Royal is Olivares at five.

One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten…TEN TOOTBLANS!

Is it comedy or is it tragedy?

As far as home finales, I don’t think the Justin Maxwell walkoff grand slam in 2013 will ever be topped. Yet this rally can be secure as the second-best and there’s no shame in that. The sixth inning was enormous fun, a perfect way to close out baseball at The K in 2022. While this season has been quite the slog at times, baseball always has a way of drawing you back in, or providing you with a parting shot that will ensure the winter is maybe just a little bit easier.

One game does not erase the 90 losses that came before it, but even in a season that failed to live up to even modest expectations, it can provide tremendous entertainment. A team that was flatlining, summoned the resolve to battle back and against all odds, came away with a victory.

It truly is the greatest game.