When seven runs is not enough

The offense finally comes alive but the bullpen torpedoes hopes that they could complete a comeback.

The Royals offense came alive in a manner of speaking on Monday, scoring seven times. Sadly the pitching for the second game in a row decided to play dead.

The result was a 10-7 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. The defeat dropped them to .500

How about a little perspective? In 2021, the Royals scored seven runs in a game 13 times. Their record in those contests was 10-3. Truly, the magic run-scoring number tends to be six. Score six runs or more in a contest, you’ll win more than three-quarters of the time.

Hernández leans on the slider

It was a wobbly first inning for Carlos Hernández. After the debacle on Sunday, the Royals needed a decent start to close out the series on Monday. The pressure was on because, really, Hernández needed to make a statement. There needs to be at least one young Royals pitcher who can get the job done in a consistent manner in the rotation.

In that first, Myles Straw tapped one back to the box and legged out a single. From there…it wasn’t pretty. Hernández completely lost control of his fastball, walking newly-minted on base machine Steven Kwan on four pitches (three four-seamers) and then falling behind Jose Ramírez 3-0 before losing him on the fifth pitch, another fastball out of the zone. Bases loaded and no outs was not the way the Royals wanted to start the series finale.

Somehow, Hernández wriggled out of it requiring just nine more pitches. Yes, two runs scored, but given the situation it could’ve been so much worse.

He escaped the jam by leaning on the slider. He used it to get ahead of Franmail Reyes with the bases loaded before he grounded a high fastball into a run-scoring double play.

Hernández went to it with the next batter, Amed Rosario, when he wanted to induce a swing. Rosario chased the pitch out of the zone, but made contact and dribbled it up the middle at 71 mph for a run-scoring single. Sometimes the good process does not yield a positive result.

For Hernández, the slider has the potential to be such a lethal pitch. On Monday he unleashed it 25 percent of the time. In raw numbers that’s 17 pitches total. He only got one called strike on the slider but that’s because…he induced 13 swings. And of those 13 swings, seven completely missed. That’s…elite.

(I would love to enhance this edition of the newsletter with a GIF of said swing and miss on the slider. Sadly, Baseball Savant will not display video from yesterday’s game. I’m exploring other options.)

That’s a ton of numbers thrown at you. Here’s another to underscore how well the slider was working. Hernández got a 54 percent swinging-strike rate on the slider. All to right-handed batters.

Last year, opposing batters managed a .196 batting average on the slider against Hernández. His final line on Monday—four runs on six hits in 4.1 innings—isn’t exactly a fair reckoning of how he pitched. Yes, the numbers don’t lie and he didn’t pitch a clean 1-2-3 inning, but on a day where his four-seam velocity was down almost two full ticks from last year and the control abandoned him at times, there were some positives to glean from the right-hander’s performance.

If attending the ballgame, don’t forget to pack your flamethrower

I dropped something similar in yesterday’s edition, but mercy…this pitching staff absolutely cooks with gas.

Collin Snider backed up his successful major league debut Saturday by retiring both batters he faced in relief of Hernández in the fifth. He worked the sinker on the edges at 95-96 mph and kept the slider on the extreme bottom of the zone at 85-86 mph. With about 40 inches of vertical drop on the slider, the dude profiles as another weapon out of the bullpen. It’s easy to see why he made the club.

His pitch chart caught my eye.

Dylan Coleman had a Coleman-esque outing, pumping 98 mph four-seamers up in the zone and complimenting that with a wipeout slider at the bottom. Fifteen pitches, eight swings and four misses. A 47 percent CSW% (Called Strike Plus Whiff Percent) will lead to a lot of clean innings.

Unfortunately, the guys you would probably have the most faith in to get through the Guardian lineup—Jake Brentz, Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow—all struggled to keep runs off the board. The three relievers combined for five outs recorded and five runs scored on five hits.

Wasted opportunities

The Royals plated seven, yet went just 2-11 with runners in scoring position. Stepping back from this game and reflecting on the chances squandered by the offense, it was honestly kind of surprising they scored seven times.

• In the bottom of the first, the Royals loaded the bases with one out. Carlos Santana chased an Aaron Civale slider out of the zone for a strikeout and Hunter Dozier followed by swinging at the first pitch and fouling out. Inning over. No runs.

• In the bottom of the third, the Royals had two runners on with one out. Salvador Perez came through with a single for his first hit and RBI of the young season. But then Santana and Dozier both hit fly balls to end the inning with no further damage. One run.

• In the fourth, the Royals broke through with three, thanks in part to a throwing error by Ramírez on a bunt by Lopez, a ground out by Whit Merrifield and a clutch two-out single by Andrew Benintendi.

• In the seventh, the Royals loaded the bases with nobody out. They managed to score on a Dozier fly ball that was dropped in the outfield, but somehow Santana was forced out at second on the play. (I’m not sure how that happened. Santana should’ve been going halfway on the ball hit in the air. He could’ve waited until the ball was caught before retreating. The focus was on how close the play was at second and the Royals reviewed the play. It shouldn’t have been that close.) One run.

It just feels like the Royals, given the opportunity, should have scored more.

Let’s examine the Dozier at bat with the bases juiced and nobody out in the seventh. Guardians reliever Bryan Shaw throws a cutter. That’s pretty much the pitch…he offers it three-quarters of the time. He’s lost some velocity on it this year, rarely breaking 90 mph with it, but it’s still his pitch.

After falling behind to Dozier 2-0, you definitely knew what was coming. Shaw knew it. Dozier knew it. The beer vendor serving in section 117 knew it. And Dozier got exactly that pitch. Right down the chute. And all he could do was drop the barrel and hit a lazy fly ball.

It was the microcosm of the day. Presented a tremendous opportunity, all Dozier could do was loft a semi-harmless fly ball. At least Benintendi was able to score. Then with runners at the corners, Mondesi fell behind 0-2 and grounded into an inning-ending double play.

Bashing baseballs with Benny

There haven’t been a ton of offensive bright spots this early into the season. Through four games, the Royals team batting average is .209 with a .282 on base percentage. The Royals plated just seven runs in their first three games to get two wins and then scored seven in Monday’s defeat. Don’t question baseball. It will drive you insane.

The one guy who has been nails in this lineup has been Andrew Benintendi. He reached base all five times he came to the dish on Monday and slammed the Royals’ first home run in 2022.

He saw next to nothing in the zone on Monday (he walked twice), but still did damage when presented the rare opportunity.

This, of course, is a big year for Benintendi. He will presumably hit the free agent market at the end of this year as a 28-year-old Gold Glove-winning outfielder. If he can come close to his 2018 breakout season at the plate, he will be in line for quite the payday. And if the Royals fall out of the Wild Card race early in the season, he could provide some attractive trade fodder.

He looks locked in, doesn’t he?

I’m the jinx

On my weekly appearance on Sports Radio 810 on Monday, I pointed out that Bobby Witt Jr. had struck out just a single time heading into the game that afternoon. He then proceeded to whiff three times.

I’m sorry.

He did make a helluva defensive play, though.

I’m hopeful this gif will allow me to make amends.

Central issues

• Red Sox 1, Tigers 3

Detroit rallied for two runs in the bottom of the eighth courtesy a Javier Báez home run. The Tigers have two wins in the young season and Báez has the game-winning hit in both.

• Mariners 0, Twins 4

Byron Buxton didn’t dinger but instead set the table for Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco. Dylan Bundy allowed just one hit through five innings and Jhoan Duran threw some serious gas in closing out the shutout.

I kind of like how even through three or four games, the standings resemble a traffic jam with basically no separation between the teams.

Up next

The Royals hit the road for the first time in 2022, a brief two-game sojourn to the other side of the state. The probables for the Cardinals series line up like so:

• Tuesday - Daniel Lynch vs. Dakota Hudson @ 6:45 PM

• Wednesday - Zack Greinke vs Adam Wainwright @ 12:15 PM

Last season, right-handed batters teed off on Lynch to the tune of .313/.389/.500. St. Louis will stack the middle part of their lineup with right-handed thunder including a run where Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill and Nolan Arenado will take their turns. This will be a key early-season test for the Royals’ southpaw.

The Royals were due to face Jordan Hicks, but as DP points out in the comments, yesterday’s rainout for the Cardinals will shuffle their rotation at bit. Looks like Hicks will be first man out of the bullpen and Wainwright will stay on turn Wednesday.