Free agent frenzy! Four targets for the Royals
Baseball has been unlocked and the race to build a roster for 2022 is underway. The Royals could test the free agent waters if they so choose. Here are four candidates.
Baseball is back!
Fine, it’s not the most original of ledes on this, the first full day of non-locked out baseball since the first of December but still…
Baseball is back!
Players can report to their respective camps as early as today. Free agency has officially reopened. Trades are now an option. Arbitration numbers will be exchanged on March 22.
It’s as if the Hot Stove, frozen shut all winter, was suddenly ignited with rocket fuel. Liftoff!
I estimate the Royals payroll is currently around $86.5 million. That’s with the 0-3 year guys earning the new major league minimum of $700,000 and with arbitration estimates provided by Major League Trade Rumors.
If nothing changes between now and Opening Day, that would represent a modest decrease from last year’s $89 million mark. That was the lowest Opening Day payroll for the Royals since 2013. It’s safe to assume with a full slate of games, no attendance restrictions and new revenue streams like Apple’s announced deal with MLB, the Royals are in a position to bump that payroll number. Let’s take a look at a few guys they could bring on board via free agency.
Michael Conforto
Why not? Let’s welcome baseball back and the free agent frenzy that is about to be unleashed by coming up with an OOTP-type of move for the Royals. Sure, it’s a long shot, but Conforto would be a clear upgrade to the Royals lineup. He sports a career 124 wRC+ and walks in 12 percent of his plate appearances while carrying the potential for 25-plus dingers. He hits left-handed. He plays right field, an assumed position of need for this team.
When listing needs for the Royals lineup when it comes to Conforto, it’s check, check and check. He ticks all the boxes.
Hampered by a hamstring injury last year, he had the unfortunate timing of posting the worst season of his career in his walk year. He did receive a qualifying offer from the Mets, which he turned down. After a 2021 season where he hit .232/.344/.384 with a 106 wRC+, he’s going to be looking to build value while playing on a deal better than the $18.4 million he would’ve received for 2022.
But where does he fit? The Royals, with a bushel of middle infield talent, will have to find the way to get all four (Nicky Lopez, Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi and Bobby Witt, Jr.) into the lineup. It stands to reason that Merrifield, who has played right field in the past, would be the prime candidate to man the position. There’s also Hunter Dozier, who has a guaranteed contract, who profiles more as a designated hitter but could fill in at right from time to time. Carlos Santana represents a bit of a roadblock at first…More of a roadblock if he continues his second-half struggles from 2021 into this year.
But roster jams have a way of working themselves out. Conforto, coming off that subpar year, could represent a bargain. Three years at $54 million gets his age 29 through 31 seasons, allows him to rebuild a bit of his value for another good-sized contract and gives the Royals a short-term solution in right as the window of contention slides ever so slightly upward.
Throw Conforto into the lineup and it could look something like this.
Merrifield - DH
Lopez - 2B
Perez - C
Conforto - RF
Santana - 1B
Benintendi - LF
Witt - SS
Mondesi - 3B
Taylor - CF
Before you unleash a flamethrower in the comments, I’m still workshopping this lineup idea. The point is, there are literally a million different ways the Royals and Mike Matheny could build their lineup. Flip-flop the positions for Merrifield and Conforto, for example. You could swap Santana out for Dozier. Move Merrifield to center. I don’t like this idea but yes, Witt could play third. There are myriad combos whether or not you add a free agent right fielder who would automatically improve the offense for the next couple of years at a decent cost.
Sure, it’s a long shot. Unlikely. Not going to happen. Conforto has been linked to just about every team but the Mets. Clubs itching to spend. The Yankees and Phillies, for example. Even the Marlins and Rockies have been mentioned as interested…you get the picture. But baseball is back so why can’t we dream a little? Pump the gas on this rebuild as the youngsters move up. Let’s have some fun.
Back on Earth, I’m not a fan of paying free agent bucks for relievers, but that’s clearly an area the Royals are seeking to address. Here are a couple who could provide some solid innings without breaking the bank.
Andrew Chafin
The southpaw Chafin traded velocity for improved command in 2021. The result was his strikeout rate tumbled big time (from 12.1 SO/9 to 8.4 SO/9), but his walk rate dramatically improved.(4.7 BB/9 in ’20 to 2.5 BB/9 in ’21). A drop in velocity and strikeout rate isn’t really what you want to see, but the results pointed to Chafin’s strongest season of his career.
The Royals can always use a lefty out of the bullpen. Chafin will get the lefties out as you would expect, but he really doesn’t have much of a platoon split. He’s a decent veteran option as he has a solid track record out of the bullpen, but last year’s numbers were powered by an 86 percent strand rate. That’s not going to happen again, which means that paying for a 1.4 fWAR (which he pitched to last summer) would be a foolish maneuver. But looking for something around a 1 fWAR? That would work.
Oakland exercised their half of his mutual option for $5.25 million, but Chafin declined his. That would obviously indicate he is looking for a multi-year deal. Aaron Loup, another lefty reliever on the wrong side of 30 signed a two-year, $17 million deal with the Angels ahead of the lockout. Two years at $14 million may be too much for the Royals. Perhaps worth it alone for the mustache.
Collin McHugh
He’ll be 35 this year, so McHugh is a bit grizzled, but the Royals love their veterans. Especially now, given the bullpen figures to be loaded with guys who aren’t even eligible for arbitration.
McHugh dealt with an elbow injury in 2019 and opted out of 2020. A free agent until mid-February last year, he found a home in Tampa at $1.8 million. It was an absolute steal for the Rays as he posted the best walk and home run rates of his career and his second-best strikeout rate. He threw 64 innings with a 1.55 ERA, good for 1.8 fWAR. Two of his three seasons since moving pretty much full-time to the bullpen have been exceptional.
He moved off his curve last year for the Rays and instead leaned on a slider/cutter combo to play off the fastball. The slider has been especially strong since he’s moved to the pen. Last year he threw it more than half the time and opposing hitters managed just a .177 BA against it with a .262 slugging percentage. And his Statcast metrics were exceptional.
The Royals have a plethora of arms, but they can always use more. The price tag will go up, but maybe a year at $6 million could get it done.
Zack Greinke
Fine. You want a reunion, I’ll give you one. How about Greinke returning to Kansas City to bookend a Hall of Fame career in Royal blue.
Greinke as a spot starter on a short leash or coming out of the bullpen could be all kinds of fun. He’s obviously not anywhere close to the same pitcher he was at his peak, but in short spurts he can still keep hitters insanely off balance.
Give him $8 million to come home and see if he can give you 1.5 fWAR.
Would it be suprising if the Royals were to resign Duffy?
Finally get to start reading about the Royals again.....McHugh fits the mold but I am sure there will be a list of others who will make a run at him. I don't think they will jump outside the box on anyone this month. But I will take a quiet March for a good April.