Fixed!
Hunter Dozier is hitting. Jorge Soler is homering. Brad Keller is shoving. And the Royals are winning.
Whew. A two-game sweep in Milwaukee against the NL Central leading Brewers and suddenly, there’s a ton to discuss. And most (really, all) of it is extremely positive! That’s what happens when the blueprint that was authored at the dawn of the 2021 season finally comes to fruition. It only took 90+ games, but it does give us a glimpse of what could have been.
It’s a full edition of Royals goodness today. In addition to highlighting the standout performances from Wednesday, Colby Wilson stops by for his weekly three take series. There’s also a trade to discuss. And after a one day hiatus, I’m back to updating the AL Central standings. Onward!
Vintage Keller
This is exactly the kind of pitch chart you want to see from a Brad Keller start.
Fastballs up. Sliders down. Many of those pitches in the meatier part of the zone are ones Keller opened a plate appearance with. This is the location of all the first pitches he threw to batters on Wednesday afternoon.
You can get away with a slider down the chute when it has good movement on its own and is balanced with the ability to locate the four-seam. If you’re living there on the regular, as Keller did in so many of his early season starts, that’s when you’re going to get punished.
In a nutshell, Keller was locating his four-seam fastball, generally working ahead in the count and finishing with the slider. And he was spotting the sinker and change for variety. The sinker wasn’t particularly effective on its own, but then again, it didn’t need to be with the four-seam and slider working.
This was really vintage Keller in that he didn’t miss a lot of bats, but was able to keep the ball on the ground while scattering six hits. Only one of those—a Christian Yellich double—went for extra bases.
Dozier finds his hitting groove
After going 2-4 with a pair of runs driven in on Wednesday, Dozier is hitting .296/.363/.444 in 24 games since June 20.
Of course, earlier this season I focused on Dozier’s spray chart and how he was pulling everything. This is how his chart looked at the end of play on June 19, when he was hitting .145/.217/.323.
It’s really kind of amazing to revisit this. Only three of his base hits were to the right of second base. And it’s really easy to spot those singles. Because there weren’t many of them.
This is his spray chart from June 20th onward:
It just feels much more balanced. Especially with the scattering of doubles in the left-center gap and down the right field line. By generally staying with the pitch and riding it more to the opposite field, he’s sacrificed his home run power in exchange for those doubles. And honestly, that’s fine. Because he’s no longer an automatic out. He’s also been getting under the ball a bit more and putting the ball in the air with greater frequency. This is his radial chart for games through June 19.
The darker areas are where the expected batting average is the greatest. There are dingers on this chart—seven of them—but a large cluster of balls that, while hard-hit, carried just a little too much launch angle. Now compare the above to his radial chart for the last month or so.
That cluster has largely evaporated. The fringes are now where his doubles power lives. And his line drives are falling in for singles. Something that was not happening through the first two and a half months of the season.
“I kind of created some bad habits because I was trying to protect it (the thumb). And I started kind of flying open where people were like, ‘It looks like he’s just trying to pull the ball. Looks like he’s not going the other way.’ My intentions were trying to go the other way but I guess in the back of my mind I was thinking ‘Don’t get blown up.’ So I started leaking and pulling, I created some bad habits….So it falls all on me.”
One more number to digest when considering Dozier’s 2021. His BABIP through June 19 was .168. His BABIP since June 20? .404. Baseball has this amazing way of evening out in the long run.
The return of Soler Power
With a dinger in each of the two games in Milwaukee, it was the first time since September 28 and 29, 2019 that Soler hit home runs in back to back games. It’s been a long time coming. Actually, that’s an understatement.
Tuesday’s homer was a first-pitch slider.
The timing and the offering made me curious. How had Soler done against that pitch, in that location, in that situation this year? This is getting extremely granular, but why not? Overall in 2021, he’s seen just four first-pitch sliders in that spot. That was the second time he’s swung. Here’s the first.
That was a month ago in Texas. Of course, those are two random pitches with two wildly different results. One from a left-handed pitcher, the other from the right. There isn’t a conclusion to be drawn, I was just struck by some of the similarities leading to completely opposite results.
I have absolutely no idea if Soler is on the right track. I’ve lost confidence in being able to predict from a handful of plate appearances whether he’s truly getting ready to go on a power-hitting binge. But I do know it’s nice to see him finally flash that power. This is a guy who went 85 plate appearances between home runs a few weeks ago.
This time, he went five plate appearances between home runs.
According to Statcast, that bomb traveled 438 feet. I’m not so sure about that distance. And look at the location of that pitch! If he’s going to start launching low fastballs into the Associated Bank Check Deck, look out. These are the nine pitches Soler has hit out of the yard in 2021.
After a brutally disappointing first three and a half months of the season, a little cautious optimism on this front is all we have.
Three Take Thursday: Eating money to improve the team, a rough schedule ahead and items of interest (and excitement) in Omaha
Give the Royals this—they make it interesting.
Lose a series to perennial doormat Baltimore, turn around and sweep a two-gamer at NL Central-leading Milwaukee. Just like the old gypsy woman said.
Anyway, with the break behind us and what is unfortunately likely to be some of the saddest baseball imaginable ahead we return, boats borne ceaselessly into the present, once again for Three Take Thursday. Five Royals games in 10 days felt just right, but now we’re back and my god there’s almost 70 games left in this season and after tomorrow, just six more off days. Into the blocks everyone, let’s get ready to sprint to the finish.
Take One: The Royals brass is going to be willing to eat money at the deadline for the first time in a long time to get a better return in a deal.
As a general rule, small market teams are known for thriftiness, and this often manifests itself at the trade deadline, where the yield from dealing a notable veteran is often tied into how much money a team is willing to eat in an effort to send him to a new locale. The Royals have never been known for retaining a lot of money, one because they rarely have many highly-paid players to trade and two…well, we know the other reason, I think.
So this will be an interesting exercise in how the new regime does business because this is John Sherman and Co. first real trade deadline in charge. The amount they paid to buy the club would indicate these are the sorts of people who have no issue throwing money around; would they pick up the tab on Carlos Santana or Mike Minor for next year if it helps beef up the system this year?
This will be fascinating to watch play out, not just for the immediate future but for the longer term health of the franchise. It’s not just that I feel they’re going to spend the money necessary to improve the club—my question is how far they’re willing to go to do what they have to do. What if they had an apparent lemon like Jorge Soler on a long-term contract right now—would this be the sort of ownership group that would be willing to cut its losses for the sake of improving the club, or will they reason that the man is being paid anyway and needs to ride it out?
It’s weird to still think of this ownership group as new, but there’s still so much that HASN’T happened under their watch that would usually go down just as a matter of course because of [gestures at The Uncertain Times]. Throw Patrick Mahomes money around! Eat $15 million of Hunter Dozier if you need to! Laissez les bons temps rouler, y’all.
Take Two: Losing the series to the Orioles will be the season’s nadir.
Calling this one early, because there simply aren’t many contenders. Dropping a home series against what is, by record, the worst team in the American League should be the low point. Would getting swept in Baltimore during the September series be worse? Probably not. In fact, given the Royals schedule from now until then—it’s possible that, with the exception of this weekend’s series against Detroit, the Royals won’t play another sub-.500 team until they go to Baltimore Sept. 6-9—Kansas City might be in possession of the American League’s worst record by that point. Here’s what’s coming up.
Detroit (46-51)
Chicago South Side version (58-38)
Toronto (48-44)
South Siders again
St. Louis (47-48)
New York Yankees (50-44)
St. Louis again
Houston (58-39)
Chicago on the North Side (47-48)
Houston again
Seattle (51-45 and no I couldn’t believe it either)
Cleveland (48-45)
South Siders again
Baltimore (is very bad)
So we’ve got that to look forward to, which, as Carl Spackler once noted, is nice.
Take Three: Omaha is officially much more interesting than Kansas City now (at least for baseball).
I don’t even know if this qualifies as a take or if it’s just fact. With the promotions of Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto to the Triple-A club this week, coupled with the already-interesting futures of Meibrys Veloria, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Gabriel Cancel, Lucius Fox, Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares and Rudy Martin, what should you be more concerned with—how those guys are progressing, or whether the Kansas City bullpen will be an outright natural disaster or merely a tire fire during a given series?
I watched Wednesday’s game in Milwaukee with interest—Brad Keller looked good, Jorge Soler looked like that guy who hit 48 homers a few years ago, Carlos Santana continues to be a Very Fun baseball watching experience, also my three-week old daughter napped for the entire thing and I got to pay attention—but found myself much more motivated to follow our friend Hunter Samuels’ foray into Werner Park later that evening, which he was kind enough to chronicle on Twitter and where Bobby Witt Jr. briefly became God.
There it is.
Just shoot that straight into my veins.
Our friend Clint Scoles’ morning newsletter has become much more exciting than any part of watching the big clubs’ games, as those often devolve into wanton obligational viewing after the second time through the order. Clint studies the farm system like a doctor pouring over medical charts (or whatever it is doctors pour over) and every day is new and exciting. It offers hope. Maybe Olivares is going to be a bust; but maybe he’s going to become a future cornerstone. Rudy Martin might become Kenny Lofton… or Billy Hamilton… or go on to have a storied career in the KBO. Either way, that’s a lot more fun than speculating if the Dozier/Soler pairing will garner more than one hit between them on a given evening.
—Colby Wilson
Roster moves
The Royals announced a trade on Wednesday, acquiring right-handed reliever Joel Payamps from Toronto for cash considerations.
Payamps was DFA’d by the Jays last week, but was having a fine season in relief. He’s thrown 30 innings with a 3.3 BB/9 and 6.6 SO/9 to go along with a 2.70 ERA. His Statcast metrics are impressive.
Even though I have the key at the bottom of that graphic, I always have to remind myself that for pitchers, red is a good color. Batters are posting an average exit velocity of 85.2 mph against Payamps and they have an xBA of .186. Basically, they’re failing to square him up with any regularity.
Payamps throws both a four-seam and a sinker and compliments those with a slider and change. The change, used almost exclusively against left-handed hitters, has been successful. None of the eight balls put in play against the pitch have gone for hits and he’s recorded three strikeouts. The four-seam and slider have also been incredibly effective for him this year.
The Royals are always on the lookout for bullpen reinforcements. This is one of those low-risk moves that could pay some dividends in that an overworked bullpen could use some help. He was assigned to Omaha, but is on the 40-man and will probably make an appearance in Kansas City soon.
Central issues
Rangers 2, Tigers 4
So Detroit has won six in a row. Matt Manning provided six strong innings while the bullpen followed with three shutdown frames to secure the victory. The Tiger damage all came via the home run off Texas starter Jordan Lyles.
Cleveland 5, Astros 4
Ernie Clement hit a bases-loaded double to briefly give Cleveland the lead in the sixth at Houston. The Astros tied it back up in the bottom of the frame, but Cesar Hernandez—who doubled in a run earlier in the game—hit his career-best 16th dinger in the seventh to provide the difference.
Twins 7, White Sox 2
Starter Michael Pineda turned in a successful trade deadline audition, holding the White Sox to one run over five innings and Jorge Polanco provided a double and dinger to split a four-game set on the South Side.
I don’t like the distance the Tigers are putting between themselves and the cellar of the Central. Maybe once the Twins start their fire sale the Royals can hoist themselves up to fourth.
Up next
Those red-hot Tigers roll into Kansas City for a three-game weekend series.
Friday — Wily Peralta vs Kris Bubic
Saturday — Casey Mize vs Carlos Hernández
Sunday — Tarik Skubal vs TBA
The off day Thursday gives the Royals the option of bringing Mike Minor back on regular rest for his Sunday start. Sunday is also when Daniel Lynch would be making a start for Omaha. If you’re looking for options.