The Royals settle all rotation business

Alec Marsh wins the fifth starter spot and Jordan Lyles is moving to the bullpen.

As much as spring training and exhibition baseball is an exercise in boredom for me, the excitement really gets going for me the last week or so of the Cactus League. That’s when things start shaking. Rosters are being filled out. Rotations are taking shape. Bullpens are built.

All the action the last 10 days or so before the regular season starts…that’s what I crave.

More news out of the Royals camp yesterday as it was announced that Alec Marsh won the fifth starter’s role. He will open the year in the rotation. This means that Jordan Lyles will shift to the bullpen.

For my early spring roster projections, I listed Lyles as a fifth starter. He was signed to a two-year, $17 million contract in December of 2022 to cover space in the rotation. (Notice I did not refer to him as an “innings eater.”) Even after the flurry of offseason activity that saw the club remake their rotation, Lyles remains the fourth-highest-paid player on the team for the upcoming season at $8.5 million. The Royals front office of old would’ve not just penciled him into the starting rotation…they would’ve tattooed it on the forehead of pitching coach Brian Sweeney as a constant reminder that this guy is here to start.

While I am not an economist the sunk cost fallacy is something I, as one who has followed the Royals for several decades, have a strong understanding of.

JJ Picollo, Matt Quatraro and their respective staff don’t seem to have time for this. It’s about the competition, baby. Want your spot in the rotation? Be healthy and pitch well when handed the baseball. Here’s Q explaining what this means:

Yeah, I mean, we were very clear with every guy in the organization going into the off-season and throughout the off-season, like nothing's guaranteed to anybody, right? And that's not an indictment that Jordan can't start games or be a big part of helping us win. It's just that at this moment, we have some tough decisions to make and one of them was that we thought Alec was deserving of being in that spot. So it's not like a banishment or a punishment to somebody, but it's maybe, you know, guys know that like everything has to be earned.

“Noting is guaranteed to anybody.”

“Everything has to be earned.”

It’s like a spring blast of fresh air is hitting me square in the face.

Can’t you just hear some of the departed guys going on about so-and-so giving this team the “best chance to win.” As in, “yeah, he’s not pitching well but at the end of the day we’re looking for guys who give us the best chance to win.”

I’m sorry. I don’t mean to keep revisiting the errors of old regimes. I truly don’t. Except when those errors lasted so long and affected nearly every single decision we saw in times both good and bad, this just feels like that continuation of the new day that I was feeling last winter when Picollo and Quatraro were making the rounds leading into spring training. Yes, last season didn’t go well and it veered off into an unsavory “season of evaluation” territory too quickly, but it seems like it gave this group a kick in the pants that they can’t just hand roles out to guys based on experience or contract value. If they are serious about not just getting better but competing, time has to be earned. It is not to be given away.

They certainly seem to understand this. Moving Lyles to the bullpen is just the latest example.

Now that Lyles is in the bullpen, the Royals expect to use him as a multiple-day, multiple-inning type of reliever. The quintessential long man, which is something I think we all would expect. The multiple-day thing is a bit surprising, but Quatraro touched on Lyles’ durability and willingness to take the ball as often as possible. The Royals feel as though if he throws a couple of innings on a Monday, he can be available for some action on Tuesday.

The Statcast data we will be able to glean from Lyles’ relief outings will be interesting. I’m not expecting a Wade Davis-type of transformation, but I do believe there’s a path forward for Lyles in the bullpen. Does his fastball play up in shorter outings? Last year, his four-seamer averaged 91 mph, which was in the 12th percentile of all pitchers. It was also frequently located right down the chute.

Does he shift focus off his four-seam and go more to a sinker? That’s a pitch he locates a little better, but there’s really not a lot of difference in that offering from his four-seamer. Plus, the sinker is a better ground ball bet for him, and that’s something Lyles really needs to get more of. Or does he move off the curve, which hasn’t been an effective pitch for him since 2019? Can he focus more on the sweeper and the change as his secondary pitches as those seem to be his best bets for a swing and a miss?

In his daily meeting with the media on Thursday, Quatraro also spoke about Daniel Lynch IV and optioning him out to Omaha to open the year. This is a long quote, but I think it says a lot about Quatraro and his style of management.

Lynch, (was a) really tough decision. He made this really difficult. He went to Winter Ball. He worked really hard to put on weight and strength through the off-season and through his rehab. So he made this a really tough job, a tough decision. And that internal competition that we've talked about was really good for this spot. And so it was not taken lightly.

You know, we've seen his velo ticking up. We've seen the little mechanical adjustments starting to take hold. And really the message is: knock the door down. Like you can go down there and prove us right or prove us wrong, right? And we have to make a decision. We can't have a crystal ball and know that we just made the right decision. We think we did what was best for the team, but we also know we're not gonna make it through the year with five starters. So he's gonna have it at some point, whether it's because of merit or injury or underperformance, he's like squarely in the mix if he stays healthy and on the same track. And I think he will.

Lynch, if he stays healthy and performs, will get his shot. And as Quatraro says, the team isn’t going to use only five starters all year. This isn’t 1954. Last summer the Royals used 23 starters. Twenty-three! Granted, some of those guys were openers and not truly in the rotation you could argue, but still…23 different starters!

Granted, you expect the rotation to be a little more solidified than last year, just based on who’s in the mix. Another year of 23 starters would be troubling. Still, things happen and it will be up to Lynch to be ready to step up and then perform when he gets here. That’s the message from Quatraro.

If the Royals are to get better this year, it’s a message everyone on the roster needs to hear.