Springing to victory

The bullpen and the bottom third of the order lead the way in securing an important win.

It was if a black cloud had taken residence over the Royals dugout at Progressive Field. A feeling of dread hovered over the proceedings. It was if Kierkegaard was managing the team.

And then suddenly, the cloud lifted. The sun splashed on the visitors. The bullpen held. MJ Melendez danced. Kyle Isbel delivered.

With starter Brady Singer ineffective, the Royals flipped an early 3-1 deficit into a 4-3 victory over the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday. It’s starting to get ridiculous, labeling these games a “massive” or “must-win”, yet the Royals have maneuvered to this position. They are playing important baseball. Against good teams.

Yes…It was a massive victory.

On Thursday, it was the bullpen and the bottom third of the order who got it done. It was their unexpected contribution that led to an unlikely come-from-behind win.

It was about the worst possible opening third (or so) of a game you could imagine. Brady Singer came out and was not sharp. Perhaps it was the illness. It was probably the illness. His velocity was down across the board, he couldn’t really command the four-seamer. and he was leaving too many pitches in the middle of the zone.

He muddled through 3.2 innings, allowing nine hits and a walk. It wasn’t all grim, I don’t think. The fact that the Guardians could only ding him from three runs (two earned) is a testament to Singer’s development and maturity as a starter. Don’t get me wrong—I’m not all-in here—but the Singer of old would’ve coughed up at least six runs given the amount of traffic he was putting on the bases. New Singer scratched and clawed and battled. It’s cliché, but it’s true.

The game could’ve gotten away from Singer in the first when the first three batters reached. It did not.

Ball don’t lie, you know? I thought it was something else that Josh Naylor hit a ground ball to Bobby Witt Jr. with the bases loaded in the first. Had the infield been playing at double play depth, it was a tailor-made chopper for two outs. Garrett Hampson was playing too far off the base to get to second in time. It was eerily similar to Tuesday’s fateful play. This time Witt didn’t rush to the bag in vain. He simply elected to throw to first to get an out. Respect the Baseball Gods and they will always offer redemption.

A batter later, Witt made another fine play, gunning down a run at home and the Royals and Singer escaped serious damage.

Singer danced around trouble in the second. He gave up the requisite home run to José Ramírez in the third and then was pulled after allowing four consecutive one-out singles in the fourth.

At this point, the Royals were down 3-1 against the best team in the AL Central and they would need a bushel of innings from their bullpen to get out of this game. Given how the bullpen has operated of late, forget about getting back into it. Now it was all about survival.

Then a funny thing happened. The bullpen showed up. Big time.

I’m going to do a roll call of sorts because these guys collectively need to be recognized.

Will Smith was the first out of the pen. He finished the fourth by throwing Josh Naylor five consecutive sliders. The last one was the best one for Naylor. He swung and missed, stranding two.

Smith was summoned back for the fifth and got the first two outs by throwing five more sliders. He finally showed fastball to lefty Daniel Schneemann and it was a battle. Smith jumped ahead 0-2. Schneemann watched the next three come nowhere close the zone to push the count full. Schneemann then fouled off three pitches before looking at a fastball at 92 MPH straight down the chute.

Angel Zerpa was next. He entered the game after the Royals rallied to tie it up at three. He walked the first batter. Of course. Angel Zerpa has pitched to a 2.28 ERA and walks just seven percent of the hitters he’s faced. I can’t explain it, but he always seems to be this close to diving headfirst into a volcano. Yet he steadied himself and set down the next three Guardians, including striking out Steven Kwan on a sinker that completely froze him.

The seventh inning belonged to Sam Long. This frame was important because it was the domain of Messers Ramírez and Naylor. Naturally, he retired those two before he walked Kyle Manzardo on four pitches nowhere near the zone. He rebounded by filling up that zone with a slider and a pair of four-seamers to punch out Will Brennan on three pitches.

By the eighth, the Royals had rallied for the lead. Quatraro stuck with the lefty Long against the left-handed hitting Schneemann. And Long again missed on all four pitches. (The third wasn’t too far out of the zone. Actually, it was in the zone. Umpires, you know.)

It was now John Schreiber’s turn. It wasn’t the highest of leverage situations with a runner on first and nobody out, but the pressure was immense. The Royals had just grabbed that lead. They could not afford to give it up at this stage of the game. Not against this opponent. Not after what happened on Tuesday.

Schreiber got Tyler Freeman to massively expand the zone, the last pitch a nasty sinker that ran in on his hands. The inning and Cleveland’s last, best hope ended when David Fry grounded into a double play.

Danger still lurked as James McArthur was tasked with facing the top of the Guardians order. Yet he needed just 10 pitches to record his three outs, the final pitch a 2-2 curveball out of the zone that Ramírez hit weekly on the ground to second.

That’s 5.1 innings of hitless relief for the Royals bullpen. They walked three, two of which were delivered to the first batter of an inning, but when they needed an out, each reliever reached back and got a strikeout. For a bullpen that entered the game with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors, they came up huge.

MJ Melendez hasn’t been the worst offensive performer in the game this year, but he’s in the conversation. Honorable mention, at least. Entering Thursday’s game in Cleveland, Melendez was hitting an anemic .167/.227/.327, good for a 51 wRC+.

Worst wRC+ for hitters with a minimum 180 plate appearances:

Javier Báez — 29 wRC+
Andrew Benintendi — 45 wRC+
MJ Melendez — 51 wRC+
Elehuris Montero — 54 wRC+
Cedric Mullins — 54 wRC+

That’s quite a list. That Báez free agent contract looks like front office malpractice. Same for the Benintendi deal, but you know…White Sox.

The calls to send Melendez down are totally justified. He looks completely lost at the plate, and as the Royals themselves noted earlier this week, his swing is “complex.” To my amateur eye, it sure looks like he’s flying open and when he’s starting with an open stance, he just has no chance of making solid contact. There’s a lot going on when Melendez is in the box. It would probably be beneficial to both the player and the team if he could spend some time in Triple-A to try and fix whatever is broken. If that’s even possible.

Instead, Melendez is altering his stance while playing in the majors. Ok.

The picture below on the left is from his last start in Kansas City on Sunday. The picture on the right is from Thursday.

This isn’t some sort of minor alteration. This is quite the change. For starters, his hands are much, much higher, going from chest high to his shoulder. Also, he’s hitting out of less of a crouch. And his upper half is more closed off to the pitcher. This is quite the radical change.

This seems…unwise? If a hitter, already lost at the plate, is going to make these kinds of changes to his swing, isn’t it a disservice to have him make these changes at once while facing major league pitching? This seems like the kind of thing hitters would go to the lower minors to work on because it could involve breaking down his swing mechanics to their very essence. A total deconstruction.

I don’t understand what the Royals or Melendez is doing here.

Melendez flew out to center, but hit the ball hard (99 MPH off the bat) in his first AB. He made a couple of poor swing decisions, expanding the zone in his next two times up. He struck out swinging but worked a walk in those two plate appearances. He made hard contact in his final AB, a lineout to right.

It wasn’t his revamped batting stance that had people talking after the game. It was his leap over catcher Bo Naylor at the plate to score on a ground ball to first that tied the game.

I’m not sure if this is some new-age kind of Olympic sport, but the Kansas City judge just gave this move a “10.”

Just some fantastic awareness from Melendez in that situation, processing where the ball was thrown, how Naylor rotated to his right, expecting Melendez to be there and then for Melendez to go over the catcher and get his hand on the plate before Naylor had time to recover and make the tag. I have no clue how the umpire, who was in a perfect position, blew the call but as I said earlier…umpires, you know?

I suppose if you’re not hitting, doing something like that to help your team win a game will earn you some gratitude, but that’s about it. It sure would be nice if the Royals made a move ahead of the homestand on Friday to get Melendez down to where he can work on his new batting stance. I don’t see how doing this at the major league level is going to end well.

With the bullpen keeping the game close, this was going to be another heartbreaking loss if the Royals couldn’t score to break the deadlock. For the game they were 3-19 with runners in scoring position, left 11 men on base and hit into two double plays.

It ended up being the eighth and ninth place hitters who, in the span of four pitches, got it done.

Adam Frazier, who entered the game as a pinch hitter for Garrett Hampson in the sixth, saw three pitches from Hunter Gaddis in the eighth and hit a 66 MPH double to right. The xBA on that hit was just .250. Then Kyle Isbel turned on the next pitch, lining a single to right, bringing home Frazier with the deciding run.

I have no reasonable justification for this, but I continue to be fine with Isbel hitting ninth for this team. A 63 wRC+ shouldn’t make anyone confident, but I dunno…He seems to do ok in pressure situations. It’s not like I’m going to make some sort of loud argument in favor of Isbel as a player you have to have in there. It’s a weird thing for me. I’d feel better about him in the lineup if the corner outfielders could hit.

Isbel drove in two on Thursday (he was the batter on the Melendez play at the plate). Hunter Renfroe, who is hitting a respectable .242/.338/.435 with a 119 wRC+ over the last month, doubled to bring home the first run of that sixth inning. The bottom of the order was a combined 5-16 with three RBI and a run scored. They struck out only once.

Central Issues

Twins 5, Yankees 8

Minnesota briefly held the lead before the Yankees torched Twins starter Pablo López for seven runs. López struggled with his control, walking six and hitting another batter. The Yankees swept the series and won all six games between the two squads.

Red Sox 14, White Sox 2

The Red Sox scored early and often, clubbing three home runs and /checks notes/ 24 hits total, behind starter Tanner Houck who held Chicago without a hit for the first five innings. The Hapless White Sox have now lost 14 in a row.

A good time for a check on FanGraphs’ playoff odds for the Central:

The Royals have been above that 50 percent line since about May 20. That’s a good place to be.