The bats come alive
Soler jumpstarts what had been a dormant offense, Matheny miscalculates with Minor and Taylor comes oh-so-close.
Finally! The offensive explosion we’ve all been waiting for…anxiously anticipating…it finally arrived.
After scoring just 16 runs total in the first five games of the current road trip, the Royals bats sprung to life, plating nine runs on 12 hits in Wednesday’s victory over the Pirates. The Royals escaped Pittsburgh with a split of their two-game series and the hot start to the 2021 season continues.
While the games generally have been crisply played when the bats are slumbering, Wednesday’s contest was…not. Both teams drew seven walks apiece, only the second time in the majors all season a game featured two teams were so selective. (The other? Opening Day with the Royals and Rangers. Who would’ve ever guessed that the Royals would play in not one, but two April games where both teams drew at least seven walks?)
Looks like Soler heating is starting to work
If you visit Jorge Soler’s page at Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs, one could get the impression he’s been less than productive offensively speaking. Your impression would be correct. Entering Wednesday’s game, the Royals’ primary DH was hitting .186/.301/.343 with an 81 OPS+ and an 87 wRC+. He has yet to put together any kind of string of success at the plate. Over his previous 11 games, he was hitting .200/.293/.400 with a .222 BABIP.
However, you could see the signs that things were turning for Soler at the end of the Royals’ last homestand. The swing looked improved. It appeared that he was seeing the baseball better. He homered in the series finale against the Rays, his first since Opening Day. Yet as the Royals hit the road, the hits and the overall power production just haven’t been happening for Soler.
He may have been hitting into outs at the plate, but Soler has been scalding the baseball in the last couple of weeks.
Soler is making ferocious contact. The fact he’s posted a .222 BABIP in this stretch while averaging an exit velocity of 97.8 mph is a joke. The man has been pulverizing the baseball. This may be the best way to visually present the blistering contact Soler has been making. These are the balls he’s put in play since April 17, covering 11 games before Wednesday’s game in Pittsburgh. The cluster above 100 mph with the relative absence of plots below 90 mph is staggering.
Soler has collected exactly one base hit in that stretch that left the bat at a speed less than 109.4 mph—a line drive back up the middle at 88.3 mph against Tampa. Baseball can be so unfair. Eventually, some of these have to sail over the infield or find the gaps in the outfield or even just leave the yard altogether.
Finally…FINALLY! On Wednesday Soler’s luck began to even out. He set the stage for the night with an epic 11-pitch at bat against Pirate starter Mitch Keller.
That finished like this:
It’s absolutely important to note that Soler was down 0-2 in the count. He laid off two of the next three pitches that were curves in the dirt. He didn’t push the count to full until the ninth pitch of the at bat. Finally, on the 11th pitch, Soler unwound on a slider on the outer edge for a run-scoring double.
Not only did Soler tally a pair of doubles that left the bat at over 100 mph (but less than 109!), he also managed a single at 70.3 mph. It was Soler’s second three-hit game of the season (the other coming at the end of the last homestand when one of those three was that home run). It’s impossible to say at this moment whether or not Soler’s luck will change. We all thought that was happening on his previous three-hit game. But if he keeps scalding the baseball like he has, you like his chances. And with the Royals coming back to Kansas City next week and with the temperatures warming up right along with Soler’s bat, and it sure feels like he’s about set to go on one of his patented home run barrages. If it happens, we’ll look back at this game in Pittsburgh as the turning point.
The Web Gem that wasn’t
This was going to be one of the greatest catches you ever saw.
It was placed perfectly in the gap, heading for that quirky corner in left-center. Michael A. Taylor was shading ever so slightly to left. If he had been able to hold on to that baseball, we would’ve been hearing about the efficiency of his route, his jump, and how it was rated a four or five star catch.
Instead, it’s just another April home run in an interleague contest.
Still, quite the effort from Taylor who has opened his Royals career by playing some stellar defense in center field. He’s been worth six Defensive Runs Saved in April, tops among center fielders. Taylor is giving the Royals something we haven’t seen since Lorenzo Cain held down the position. Great defense is a pleasure to watch.
Matheny makes a Minor mistake…
One of my complaints about pitchers hitting in National League baseball is that it sometimes robs us prematurely of potential great pitching performances. If the game is close and a team is threatening to score in the middle or later innings, a manager will probably want to pull his pitcher for a pinch hitter if his spot comes up in the lineup, damn how he’s doing on the mound. The converse can also be true. A pitcher hitting gives the manager an excuse to remove a starter from the game perhaps a little earlier than normal.
The latter was the case that Mike Matheny dealt with on Wednesday. With two down in the top of the fifth Mike Minor’s spot came up. At that point, Minor had thrown 80 pitches and had just been touched for three runs in the previous frame. Even if his spot hadn’t come up in the order, you would think he would be on a short leash going back out in the fifth. Especially considering the Royals’ bullpen was mostly rested and the off-day Thursday meant that there would be recovery time ahead of the Twins series on Friday.
Minor went back out for the fifth and got a pop out to open the inning. The next batter hit a ground ball to short that the normally reliable Nicky Lopez airmailed on his throw to first. A single followed by a double and the Pirates had trimmed what was once a 6-0 Royals lead to a one-run, 6-5 ballgame.
Matheny, who has been so adept at handling his relievers this season, inexplicably pushed his starter too long. Maybe he wanted to get Minor the win. Maybe he hoped he could procrastinate going to the bullpen for as long as possible. Maybe he just believed that at that particular point in the game, Minor was the right man for the job.
Whatever the reason, it was a miscalculation to trot Minor back out for the fifth.
Minor seems like fourth starter material at this point. He will give you some good outings and some bad. Maybe there will be more bad than good, but it won’t be skewed so heavily in one direction that his presence in the rotation becomes untenable. There is value to be found in a starter who can give you five or six innings. Sometimes if you can get four innings from him at 80-odd pitches and you have the lead, it’s probably incumbent that you get to the bullpen at that point. Or at least have your finger on the trigger to make the move at the first sign of trouble. Especially if that bullpen is rested, deep and strong.
Hey, if Lopez doesn’t make that error, maybe the Pirates go down in order and this whole section is moot. But once runners were on base, it was most definitely time to move to the bullpen.
…And masterfully uses the bullpen
You are probably tired of reading about this, but even though Matheny made an error by allowing Minor back out for the fifth, he maintains a deft touch at handling his bullpen.
Kyle Zimmer didn’t have the command on Wednesday and the Pirates chased nothing out of the zone from him, but he got the two outs he needed without allowing any more damage.
Zimmer went slider-slider away for the two pitches to Kevin Newman with the bases loaded, the first was a called strike which was so key because it forced him to offer at the second.
Jake Brentz was next but also struggled with the zone, walking two of the four batters he faced. With runners on first and second and one out, Matheny stuck with him against the switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds has historically been better from the right side, but Brentz got him with a nasty slider.
Up next was Tyler Zuber. He’s a different pitcher from the one we saw last year. He’s throwing a first pitch strike 65 percent of the time, up almost nine percent from 2020. Zuber is also using his slider for maximum deception, upping the whiff rate on the pitch. It’s really reflected in his chase rate. Batters are swinging at pitches out of the zone from Zuber 26 percent of the time compared to 17 percent last summer.
As noted previously, the Pirates were very disciplined at the plate on Wednesday, so Zuber wasn’t able to get them to chase. Zuber also fell behind on five of the eight hitters he faced. The Pirates hit him hard (average exit velocity was 94.5 mph) but he was able to work around any potential damage.
When a player’s productivity or results change from year to year, we have become conditioned to look at things like velocity and spin rate. But sometimes it’s as simple as a pitcher locating better…Getting that first strike and knowing when hitters are at their most vulnerable and expanding the zone accordingly. Zuber is pitching smarter and with what looks to be more confidence.
Matheny leaned on the righty for two innings on Wednesday…Just enough to get the ball to Josh Staumont to close out the win.
Whle labels have been impossible to pin down for this 2021 Royals bullpen, with saves in each of his last three outings, it sure looks like Stuamont is the official closer. He’s certainly thrived in the situation.
I’ve always been skeptical about using Staumont in that role due to the volume of walks. That seems to not be an issue. And if that’s the case, the Royals have quite a nasty weapon at the back of the bullpen.
And on Wednesday, Matheny showed again he knows how to deploy all those weapons.
Fast start update
With the victory on Wednesday, it’s officially tied for the third-best start in franchise history through the first 23 games of the season.
2003 — 17-6
2015 — 16-7
1989 — 15-8
2021 — 15-8
Central issues
Minnesota 10, Cleveland 2
The Twins find an outlet for all that frustration, blasting six home runs for just their second win in their last 10 games. Byron Buxton hit a leadoff homer, then added four more hits for a 5-5 day at the plate.
Beware the slumping team beginning to shake off those early-season doldrums. Especially just before the Royals head to town.
Detroit @ Chicago — Postponed
The Tigers and White Sox will play two on Thursday.
Up next
The Royals are off on Thursday, as are the Twins, as both teams prepare for an epic weekend series in Minneapolis.