Royals 2024 roster projection 1.0

What better way to ring in 2024 than with a roster projection! Plus, some thoughts with what's going on at Substack.

Happy New Year!

2024 marks the 20th season for me clogging up the internet’s bandwidth with writing about the Royals. On one hand, the time has flown right on by. I can’t believe I’ve been covering this team for this long because it certainly doesn’t feel like it’s been 20 years. On the other hand…what the hell am I doing spending this kind of time writing about the Royals?

I kid. I think. Anyway, I hope your new year is filled with peace and prosperity, hope and health, a semi-competitive team in the AL Central and all sorts of good vibes.

To mark the occasion of breaking out a new calendar, today seems like an ideal time to proffer my first look at how the Opening Day roster for the Royals will take shape. This is always a fun exercise because as we get to the end of March, I’ll look back at this post and there will be one or two names that will have me wondering what the hell was I thinking. Since I’m writing this over the New Year’s holiday, I’ll blame it on the champagne.

Normally, I start with the hitters because I have a wholly unfounded bias against pitchers. However, General Manager JJ Picollo has done some kind of work overhauling what had been a most dreadful staff. That’s where the excitement begins. So let’s start there.

Rotation

Cole Ragans
Michael Wacha
Seth Lugo
Brady Singer
Jordan Lyles

Just two holdovers from the rotation that opened the year in Kansas City last season and yes, that’s some kind of progress.

Pointing out that the Royals turned a few months of Aroldis Chapman into four years of Ragans will never get old. Chapman and Texas got their rings, so it was one of those deals where everyone wins. The good news: the Royals will win just a bit longer as Ragans isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2028.

Newcomers Lugo and Wacha aren’t some sort of starting pitching panacea, but they represent an improvement over what the Royals tried as they stumbled through 2023. Lugo has limited mileage on his arm but showed he can mostly stand up to the rigors of starting. Wacha, after struggling in his late 20s, has turned in back-to-back solid seasons pitching for Boston and San Diego.

You just hope that one of the two veterans can get through to Singer and help him with a third pitch. Perhaps Wacha can give him some pointers on throwing the changeup.

Further good news: The recent signings of free agent pitchers such as Frankie Montas (one year at $16 million) and Lucas Giolito (two years at $38.5 million) show the Royals did well in locking their free agents up early before the market for starters got even more inflated.

Yeah, Lyles is still in the rotation at the moment. Don’t forget, he started the second game of the year for the Royals last year, so you could say he opened the season as their number two starter. Real improvement would be pushing him out of the rotation altogether and into a mop-up role, but we’re not completely there just yet. And these are still the Royals and the budget does dictate things like playing time. Lyles will cash in $8.5 million in 2024, so he gets an opportunity to try his hand at starting again. The difference is, while the previous GM would insist Lyles was just about to turn the corner, the current one will roll with a much shorter leash. I don’t expect Lyles to be in the rotation in June. It’s conceivable he could pitch himself out of consideration in Surprise.

The current rotation is light on the Class of ’18 arms, but they’re still in the picture. Daniel Lynch IV is waiting in the wings should Lyles or Singer falter. I see his role as long relief/spot starter at the moment, so he’s in the next section. If he holds his own, he will be the first man in when the Royals need someone else in the rotation. Kris Bubic could be a factor later in the season depending on how well his rehab from Tommy John progresses.

Bullpen

Nick Anderson
Carlos Hernández
Daniel Lynch IV
James McArthur
Matt Sauer
Will Smith
Chris Stratton
Josh Taylor

This bullpen looks…much improved from last year. As noted above, Lynch is a temporary name in this mix. The newcomers include Anderson who was acquired from the extremely busy Atlanta Braves for cash considerations, Sauer, an intriguing middle relief option nabbed from the Yankees organization in the Rule 5 draft and free agent signings Smith and Stratton.

Smith will open the season as the primary closer, but Matt Quatraro will likely send some opportunities to McArthur with an occasional chance falling to Hernández and Stratton.

If you’re looking for a dark horse in this category, mine would be Anthony Veneziano, especially if Josh Taylor isn’t ready to go. Veneziano would provide Quatraro with a second lefty arm in the bullpen. He’s been a starter for most of his career, but with an improved rotation, it could be useful to break him into the majors as a reliever. Obviously, he would primarily be a long reliever/swingman type.

Catchers

Freddy Fermin
Salvador Perez

Barring a trade, this is the easiest group to nail down. There are only two backstops on the 40-man roster and they’re both on the major league roster. You know them, you love them and you expect them to handle the catching duties with aplomb.

Infield

Makiel Garcia
Garrett Hampson
Nick Loftin
Michael Massey
Vinnie Pasquantino
Bobby Witt Jr.

The infield situation is a lot less interesting if only because the Royals are going to ride mostly with the usual suspects. Not that that is necessarily a bad thing.

I have Loftin penciled in at second base. He was truly impressive in his late-season turn in Kansas City, hitting .323/.368/.435 in 68 plate appearances. Small sample size and all that, but his 18 percent strikeout rate was notable and leads me to think he’s ready for a longer look. His Triple-A numbers of .270/.344/.444 were a bit pedestrian as compared to the league, but again, the bat-to-ball skills will play. Michael Massey is in the mix, but I get the feeling the Royals are leaning heavily in Loftin’s direction. That means Massey is used as a lefty bat off the bench.

As you probably know, I’m excited for a full season of Pasquantino in the lineup. The Pasquatch and Witt make a formidable pair in the heart of the order. Then Garcia and Witt as quite the duo to lock down the left side of the infield. That means Nick Pratto is missing from this list. At the moment, I just don’t see how he fits or how he could even force himself onto this team.

Outfield

Kyle Isbel
MJ Melendez
Hunter Renfroe
Nelson Velázquez
Drew Waters

I feel the outfield is a little less settled. Renfroe, by free agent default, will start most likely in right. That’s the domain of Melendez, who manned that corner for just under 600 innings last year. So the signing of Renfroe pushes Melendez to left. Somehow, Melendez was also the Royals’ most frequent left fielder last year as well, logging just over 450 innings there. Maybe a permanent corner home will unlock the bat that showed signs of life in last year’s second half.

Center is a little more up in the air…again. Isbel and Waters all both field the position. The question, as always, is who among them can hit? Dairon Blanco will be waiting in the wings. All three of the center field candidates have options and can be freely sent to the minors. This will be the primary battle to watch in the spring.

For some reason, I feel like the 2024 Royals outfield will use the same revolving door approache that Quatraro utilized in 2023 with the starting rotation.

OK…I have to discuss what’s going on with Substack, the platform I use to publish the newsletter. You may not want to read it, and I understand. You come here for Royals info and insight that gets mixed in with some of my nonsense. So if you decide to close your browser or delete this email at this moment, I won’t blame you. Fair warning and all that.

Still here? OK…

As you may be aware (if you aren’t, buckle your virtual seatbelts), Substack has a Nazi problem. It turns out there are several Nazi newsletters that have found a home, and financial support, at Substack. You would think that once a vocal band of writers came together to demand action, the leadership of Substack would maybe take a moment to reflect and decide that they don’t really want Nazis to use their platform to espouse vitriol. It really shouldn’t be difficult. This is not a First Amendment issue, nor is it about censorship. It’s about common sense and basic decency. Do you want to do business with a bunch of racists? Apparently, Substack is just fine with their platform being used to push hate. Here’s what Substack founder Hamish McKenzie had to say about it:

I just want to make it clear that we don’t like Nazis either—we wish no-one held those views. But some people do hold those and other extreme views. Given that, we don’t think that censorship (including through demonetizing publications) makes the problem go away—in fact, it makes it worse.

Hamish may not be a Nazi. But it’s clear Hamish is an idiot. He’s conflating censorship with his platform’s right to set agreements with terms of use, decide who can or cannot post and ultimately, their reputation as leaders and as a site. Besides, Substack is already moderating some content they find unappealing. As Mike Masnick noted at Techdirt, this is the classic “Nazi bar” scenario: if you’re not kicking out Nazis, you get the reputation as “the Nazi bar” even if you, yourself, don’t like Nazis.

So as all of this was going down, my first thought was, “Damnit, I have to find a new publishing platform.” Here’s the deal…it’s not that simple. I’ve looked into alternatives like Beehiiv and Buttondown and Ghost, but they all have their issues and migration wouldn’t be super simple.

While I’m small potatoes in the Substack universe, a number of notable and important writers have announced their intention to leave the platform. Craig Calcaterra has said he will move. Joe Posnanski is thinking about making a switch. In my mind, unless the leadership of this platform comes to their senses, it’s the right thing—and the only thing—to do, but it’s going to take them some time. As this situation has unfolded, my thinking is that I would kind of stand on the sidelines and watch the action to see where various writers land. They have much higher subscription bases and they actually use this platform to make a living. That means different services are courting them and will do everything they can to make their transition smooth and simple. For a writer like myself, I fear it won’t be as easy. So for the moment, I remain here.

I write this so you are aware of the situation at Substack and to let you know that my publishing here in no way condones the stance taken by the leaders of this platform and is in no way a tacit approval of friggin’ Nazis publishing here. For crying out loud, how easy is it to condemn Nazis? Watch this: Nazis suck. And the leadership at Substack can’t freaking do it.

Meanwhile, if you feel that you can’t give Substack any clicks whatsoever, I completely understand. Between this and the dope who runs Twitter throttling links to work, it’s getting more and more difficult to get the word out about my little corner of the internet. I just hope that you stick with me while we muddle through Substack’s self-inflicted idiocy. It’s my desire to be as transparent as possible and to keep you updated as this unfolds. Thank you for your understanding and patience.