Letters from camp: Projecting the 28-man roster, version 1.0

A week and a half of games, a round of roster cuts and the Opening Day roster is slowly coming into focus.

The eagle-eyed among you will note a subtle, yet important, change from the normal headline for the annual roster projection party. With the shortened Spring Training season, the players and the lords have agreed to add two extra players to team rosters through the end of April.

A crucial footnote is that, while under normal rules, teams would be limited to 13 pitchers on their 26-man roster, there will be no limits on how many arms (or bench bats) a team can keep on their roster. This makes projecting the 28 a little more challenging. And potentially fun!

The Royals made it just a little easier while writing as they announced a round of roster cuts.

Kansas City Royals @Royals

We have made the following roster moves: Optioned RHP Ronald Bolaños, C MJ Melendez and INF Nick Pratto to Omaha (AAA). Optioned INF Maikel Garcia to Northwest Arkansas (AA). Reassigned C Kale Emshoff, LHP Austin Cox, LHP Foster Griffin and RHP Jace Vines to minor league camp.

Honestly, that doesn’t impact the projections. You’ll see as you read along.

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Before we get started, I’d like to point out that you can now read Into The Fountains in the new Substack app for iPhone.

I’ve been test-driving it for a few days and I have to say I’m really pleased with it. There’s a dedicated Inbox for Into The Fountains and any other newsletters you subscribe to. New posts will never get lost in your email filters or stuck in spam. Comments, and most importantly, gifs, all work seamlessly. It’s a nice upgrade to the reading experience.

The Substack app is currently available for iOS. If you don’t have an Apple device, you can join the Android waitlist here.

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Catcher

Cam Gallagher
Salvador Perez

Damnit. I really, really want to list M.J. Melendez here. Even after he was assigned to Omaha.

Melendez, you will recall, ripped his way through Double-A Northwest Arkansas last summer, hitting .285/.372/.628 with 18 doubles and 28 dingers in just a shade under 350 plate appearances. He was then promoted to Triple-A Omaha and hit even better, raking to the tune of .293/.413/.620 with four doubles and 13 homers in 184 PAs.

While it’s dangerous to put any kind of stock in numbers coming out of camp in Surprise, it’s difficult to ignore the guy when he’s hitting .467/.529/.733 in 17 PAs through Sunday. He’s doubled, homered, walked twice and whiffed just three times.

Maybe this is a good time to drop his write-up from Baseball America here:

Melendez went to work on his swing and approach right after the 2019 season, resulting in a shorter swing, a toned-down leg kick, a better stance and a more relaxed approach. As a result, he is now able to pick up spin earlier, which leads to fewer chase swings out of the strike zone.

Somewhere Drew Saylor and Alec Zumwalt are reading this and smiling. It’s another minor league success story for the Royals’ hitting department. With all these prospects making adjustments and reaping immediate rewards, one can’t help but salivate at the thought of a lineup stocked with prospects.

Alas, Melendez needs to get regular reps and Perez isn’t moving off the starting role any time soon. While Melendez has been working at third base, that’s the domain of America’s Top Prospect. So as much as I’d like to drop Melendez here as a roster candidate, the Royals did the right thing by optioning him to Omaha.

As I said…Damnit.

Infield

Nicky Lopez
Adalberto Mondesi
Ryan O’Hearn
Carlos Santana
Bobby Witt, Jr.

All you have to do is read the lineup tweets to realize how the Royals will align come Opening Day.

Kansas City Royals @Royals

Here's how we'll line up behind Zack Greinke this afternoon in Surprise. #RoyalsST

Long-time readers know I disagree with the positioning of Witt at third and Mondesi at short, but I’m coming around to understanding the reasoning behind it. Mondesi, as we all know, cannot be counted on for a full year. His career-high for games played in a season is 102. That means, at some point, it’s extremely likely the Royals will need to slide some players around. Naturally, under the current alignment that would involve Lopez moving over to the other side of second and Merrifield coming in from the outfield to man the keystone. Simple. In a scenario like this, Witt doesn’t move. He’s the guy at the hot corner.

Why not? If Witt and Mondesi trade positions on the regular, that would mean the Royals will need someone to play third at some point. That would probably be Witt, which while on paper would be a fine move, could be the cause of a little anxiety in the front office. The idea here is you give your top prospect a spot and you just leave him there for the full season. No worries about having to move positions to cover an injury, just go out and play. Let Lopez and Merrifield move around. Besides, they’ve shown they can do it.

Let’s just say right here that if Witt isn’t on the Opening Day roster, we riot.

Somehow the Royals have compiled a roster that includes three quality shortstop options. That’s insane.

Speaking of reading the clues, it sure sounds like O’Hearn will be on the roster. Here’s Mike Mathney after O’Hearn’s big day over the weekend:

He can hit. He can flat hit. Before we even started this spring, I said he’s going to have a huge spring. Guy can hit and he hasn’t really been able to put it together on a consistent basis at the major league level. But he’s a major league hitter every time he walks into the box.

Outfield

Andrew Benintendi
Hunter Dozier
Kyle Isbel
Whit Merrifield
Edward Olivares
Michael A. Taylor

I’ve moved some names around from the first roster projection. Merrifield and Dozier, while still listed as infielders on the Royals’ Spring Training roster, are clearly off the dirt for the time being. So they are lumped in with the rest of the outfield. In my mind, the only lock of the three is Benintendi in left. That’s just because there are a ton of moving parts to this Royals defensive alignment.

(Dozier should just surrender his glove as it is. Make him the DH and just be done with it.)

I wrote about Kyle Isbel last week, and in doing so, convinced myself that he needs to once again open the year in Kansas City.

Letters from camp: The case for Kyle Isbel

Is there room for two extra outfielders? Because with the scorching camp that Olivares is having—he’s hitting .611/.600/1.389 in 18 plate appearances, with a team-high three home runs—he’s looking like last year’s Isbel in that he’s playing himself onto the roster. It will be a challenge getting him regular playing time, but I’ll leave that to Matheny.

The Taylor extension…man, I don’t know. It seemed alright at the time. Not a lot of money for a premium defender. While there’s definitely room for that on a Royals roster, I wonder if the club doesn’t have a bit of the old buyer’s remorse. Could a platoon of Isbel and Olivares get the job done, at least until one of them seizes the position? Taylor’s role could be limited to late-inning defensive replacement and spot starter, which would suit him.

Speaking of finding regular playing time, Taylor left Monday’s game early with what the Royals termed “hip discomfort.” I will continue to maintain these roster questions have a way of sorting themselves out. It certainly doesn’t sound serious and a reason to start reconfiguring the outfield, rather it serves as a reminder.

Starting rotation

Zack Greinke
Brad Keller
Daniel Lynch
Brady Singer
Carlos Hernández
Kris Bubic

Did you notice with Greinke’s start on Monday, that gives him one more outing in the Cactus League before he lines up for an Opening Day nod? Yeah, me too.

Outside of Greinke, this condensed spring has made it kind of difficult to get a grip on how the Royals are setting up their pitching plans. There have been plenty of backfield innings and side sessions to get the arms ready. Often those are under the radar and off the stat sheets. Keller is going on Tuesday against the Mariners, so again, the rotation is starting to take shape.

I’m still going with the six-man rotation. The Royals will be searching for innings all year long. Think about how weird this stretch of the last few years have been. In 2020, Covid delayed the season and limited it to 60 games. The next year we saw the fallout from the previous year being shortened. Now in 2022, we have a spring training for about half as long as normal for pitchers. Caution when handling pitchers, especially these young arms, is simply smart.

Singer had a throwing error in his first outing of the spring and then in his last appearance on Sunday, he had a rocky first inning before he found himself. Looks like he’s in regular season form. He’s bumped back to fourth in the rotation as I figure the Royals would want to mix in a lefty after going back-to-back right-handed starters to open the year against Cleveland.

How about this quote from Matheny when asked about Kris Bubic’s outing on Sunday:

“He’s a pitch-maker.”

The pitch-maker is going to find a spot in this rotation.

Bullpen

Scott Barlow
Jake Brentz
Taylor Clarke
Dylan Coleman
Amir Garrett
Joel Payamps
Collin Snider
Josh Staumont
Angel Zerpa

It’s the usual flame-throwing suspects.

The Barlow-Brentz-Coleman-Garrett-Staumont back five may not possess some sort of moniker yet, but give it time. Matheny has a wealth of options. Of course, with options what matters most is how they’re deployed. No pressure or anything.

Payamps is out of options. Clarke was the Royals’ signing ahead of the lockout in December and has looked sharp in camp, throwing four scoreless frames, including one outing where he threw more than an inning. The Royals remain high on Zerpa, who looks to be the swingman in the group for the time being.

For the last man in the bullpen, I’m going to go with Collin Snider, who has made four scoreless appearances and has yet to allow a hit or walk and has whiffed four.

Keep an eye on Domingo Tapia who was in my first bullpen, but a rough spring has relegated him to Triple-A. Gabe Speier has allowed one run over three outings while striking out three. Ronald Bolaños was one of Monday’s cuts, but I remain hopeful he will get some meaningful innings in Kansas City this summer. The Royals have given an extended look at minor league signing Brad Peacock, but he’s been roughed up over four innings.

That’s 15 pitchers and 13 position players. And I’m not unconvinced they could shed a bat (although it would be difficult to push Isbel or Olivares off this roster at this point) for another arm. Which would be wild.

Now it’s your turn. What do you think? Am I leaving someone out or overvaluing the spring of another?