Rolling the draft dice
There’s risk, there’s extreme risk and then there are high school catchers. Plus some thoughts on Amir Garrett, Ryan Yarbrough and one of the worst first halves in Royals’ franchise history.
My flight out of Boston is delayed by a couple of hours. I have a full charge on the iPad and a decent enough wi-if connection. Let’s go. Apologies in advance for any typos or grammatical errors beyond what usually appears in this space.
With an underwhelming first half of baseball in the books that has removed any shred of optimism one may have harbored of a quick rebound into contention, about the only thing to look forward to in July for the Royals is the draft. It’s a much-welcome opportunity to restock a barren farm system with some new talent. The draft is always an important event, but this year, with the team 39 games (39 damn games!) under .500 and with that farm system lacking any kind of immediate promise or much long-term upside, it feels like the stakes for this franchise at this moment have never been higher. It’s a grandiose statement, but it certainly feels accurate.
Then, with the eight overall pick, the Royals tabbed a high school catcher.
The adjective that immediately comes to mind is “risky.” Let’s be honest. All baseball draft picks come with some measure of risk. The best prospecting sites will drop a note or grade about that. But the Royals aren’t really in a position where they can gamble on a high first round pick. They need a lock. (Or as much of a lock as one can get.) They need someone who will pay dividends for them down the road, either at the big league level or as a prospect that could bring a return should the Royals decide to get aggressive in the trade market. A prep catcher doesn’t fit that profile.
Now, to be fair, Baseball America rated Blake Mitchell as the number one prep catcher in the draft, and number 15 overall. That was kind of the universal pre-draft take: Mitchell was a first round talent. Just not a top 10 first round talent.
Two things that I feel are important to note:
Mitchell is also a pitcher who has been used as a two-way player in national tournaments and touches the mid-90s with his fastball. That arm strength obviously translates behind the plate and it looks to be his loudest tool. Baseball America hung a 70 grade on his arm. He’s definitely staying at catcher.
This move should allow the Royals to realize some slot money savings that they can spread throughout the draft. We’ve seen this organization utilize this gambit before so before we collectively freak out about drafting a high school catcher, we really need to wait and see how the Royals work the rest of the draft.
If the Royals were set on selecting a catcher in the first round, the hope was it would be Kyle Teel out of Virginia. (Of course you never draft for position in the draft. You pick the best guy available and roll from there.) He was a universal top 10 talent who was available when the Royals made their pick. In fact, Teel slid a few more spots after the Royals passed, finally landing with the Red Sox at 14.
This feels like it could be relevant.
If you’d like a happy draft reaction, click my pal Matt Kory’s Sox Outsider link. He’s kind of pleased.
In the second round, the Royals nabbed right-handed prep pitcher Blake Wolters. Another high school pitcher. I mean if you’re going to push a stack of chips on a high school catcher, why not go all-in, following that up with a high school arm. Double down on that early round risk. It sounds like Wolters grew into his 6-foot 4-inch frame this year, adding muscle and around 5 MPH to his fastball. Along with the heat, Wolters has an above-average slider. He’s committed to the University of Arizona.
The club wrapped their day with a competitive balance pick. The selection here was left-handing hitting outfielder Carson Roccaforte from University of Louisiana-Lafayette. He looks to be that athlete the Royals usually go for, a center fielder who can cover some serious ground. He hit .318/.426/.538 as a junior this year with 22 stolen bases.
The Royals DFA’d lefty reliever Amir Garrett over the weekend. There was the requisite angst over the Royals uncoupling from a reliever with a 3.33 ERA, but under the surface that 7.4 BB/9 is just a value-killer.
Say what you will about the Royals, but they’re not mind-numbingly stupid. They’re not DFA’ing a reliever with a nifty ERA and a 10.4 SO/9 if they hadn’t shopped him around previously and found no interest. Contenders need relievers. They don’t need relievers who throw first-pitch strikes 48 percent of the time and have a 27 percent CSW%.
That made him untradeable. It also means I would be very surprised if he was claimed while he was on the waiver wire. I imagine he’ll pass through and may catch on with a random club or as a depth option for a contending team that will put him behind glass only to be broken in case of an emergency.
The beat rolls on…
Garrett was jettisoned so the Royals could activate Ryan Yarbrough from his rehab assignment. It’s really good to see him back after getting hit in the face with a batted ball a couple of months ago. Just a horrific injury that’s becoming more and more frequent in the game. That he was able to return and spin six innings of six hit and five strikeout ball was a bonus.
The first half has been a steady stream of garbage from this team. It was good to see them close it out on a winning note with a solid performance from a player making a comeback.
The Royals have used 26 pitchers this year. It’s 28 if you include Matt Duffy and Nate Eaton. They currently have 23 pitchers on their 40-man roster. Only Jonathan Bowlan and newly acquired Cole Ragans are on the roster yet to appear in the majors for the Royals. I would assume both will see major league action shortly.
As we’re at the All-Star Break, the unofficial midpoint of the season, here are the five worst winning percentages for the Royals at the break:
2006 - .356
2005 - .345
2019 - .330
2023 - .286
2018 - .284
Sorry for the wonky formatting, but it kind of fits the entire Royals first half vibes, doesn’t it?
So many people think that they're experts and immediately trashed the Mitchell drafting as another sign of an "inept" organization. They may turn out to be right, but it just seems like the "in vogue" thing to do to trash the Royals no matter what. Maybe we're all prisoners of the past--you know, the sins of the father thing. Can't blame them completely, but can we at least give it a shot?
I can't even pretend to have followed the draftable talent enough to say whether it was a bad signing. Would I have preferred a more-ready talent? Sure, but it seems that they're gambling a steady thing for the chance at a much higher ceiling. Their "sure things" are likely going to have to come via free agency, and they'd better be prepared to PAY UP, because another round of FA like this off-season might send fans to 1 Royals Way with pitchforks and torches!
But, that being said, about yesterday's game: welcome back, Ryan Yarbrough! He, Isbel, and Massey were the stars yesterday. And Nicky Lopez proves that his defense plays anywhere. He'd probably play an outstanding hot-dog vendor, too.