Postseason notebook

Revisting a great play, setting a rotation, Bally's Sports tomfoolery and the rivalry comes alive.

Let’s spend another off day emptying the postseason notebook. Plenty to discuss around the Royals and the baseball world in general.

Consider this our collective workout day. An opportunity to stay loose before the frenzy begins anew on Saturday.

We’ll start with one of the more important plays from Game Two that I neglected to mention in my dispatch on Thursday: the MJ Melendez catch of the Ramón Urías drive to left to start the third inning. Reminiscent of the shot off the bat of Jordan Westburg in Game One, this was a drive that traveled 378 feet. According to Statcast, it would’ve been a home run in every ballpark except for three. (Westburg’s would’ve been a homer in every park but two.) Instead, Melendez ran it down for the first out of the inning.

Where the catch of the Westburg drive felt routine, this catch was nothing but. The Royals were shading the right-handed hitting Urías to the opposite field. The third baseman has a bit of pop—he hit 11 home runs in 2024—but pulls the ball to the outfield a little less frequently than the average hitter. This meant Melendez had further to travel to make the catch. The distance, along with the exit velocity (99 MPH) and the launch angle (25 degrees) meant that the catch probability for Melendez was a scant five percent.

Witness.

The broadcast was talking about how Melendez had improved defensively in the outfield from the previous season. I believe this to be true. Yet one area where Melendez has suffered has been his jump on the balls hit in his vicinity. According to Baseball Savant, Melendez has a jump that is 2.4 feet worse than average. His reaction—the measure of feet covered in the first second and a half—is 1.6 feet below league average. That ranks Melendez 103rd out of 105 qualified outfielders. By comparison, Kyle Isbel is 2.1 feet above average, the fourth-best in the league.

The one thing Melendez does well in relation to his outfield peers? He generally runs a solid route.

From the GIF and the chart above, I’d say that looks righteously direct.

I wonder if the Orioles are regretting moving back their wall in left field that far.

We learned on Thursday that Baltimore’s Colton Cowser did break his hand while striking out against Angel Zerpa in Game Two.

Remember, this came with the bases loaded and the Royals up one. Anthony Santander had just popped out to first and Zerpa was fresh into the game. Had Cowser been able to hold his swing, he could’ve been hit by that sinker. Then you have a new ballgame.

I’m obviously glad that Zerpa was able to get the strikeout, but feel for Cowser in that situation. Not at all how you want your season to end.

It remains insane to me that the Royals scored a grand total of three runs in the two games and won them both. I love pitching and defense, but that’s dangerous.

The boys are going to have to get the bats going.

I’ll have a breakdown of the ALDS on Saturday, but the Royals announced their first two starting pitchers for the games in New York. Michael Wacha, who would’ve started the deciding game of the Wild Card series had it gone three games, will get the start in Game One. He will be followed by Cole Ragans.

The scheduling of the ALDS is bizarre, but it plays right into the hands of a team with good starting pitching. Like the Royals. It allows them to set their rotation like this:

Game One on 10/5 — Michael Wacha
Game Two on 10/7 — Cole Ragans with an extra day of rest
Game Three on 10/9 — Seth Lugo with two extra days of rest
Game Four on 10/10 — Wacha on regular rest
Game Five on 10/12 — Ragans on regular rest

When I think about Yankee Stadium (the new one filled with luxury boxes no one sits in), I often think of the jet stream and the short porch in left that just swallows up fly balls. Having a lefty like Ragans potentially take two turns in that stadium might not be such a bad thing. Then I looked up park factors and saw it’s actually easier for right-handed hitters to club one out. That’s probably just the Aaron Judge effect and the Royals shouldn’t be pitching to him anyway.

Back to the Royals rotation, this schedule, as you can see, plays to their benefit. Then if they’re fortunate enough to move on in three or four games, they’ll have Ragans ready to go in Game One of the ALCS. Perhaps I’m looking too far ahead here. Fine. Keeping the focus on this series, it’s not a bad thing at all when your ace gets to pitch twice on regular rest and one of those starts could be in a decisive fifth game.

As a writer of, ahem, a certain age, I have vivid memories of the epic Royals and Yankees encounters of the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. The heartbreak of the Chris Chambliss home run in ‘76. The slides and swings and the heartbreak of a Freddie Patek double play in ‘77, the year the Royals won 102 games. George Brett hitting three home runs against Catfish Hunter in Game Three in an inexplicable losing effort of ‘78. I had Royals posters all over my room and immediately pulled them all down. Who could take this kind of pain?

Finally the nirvana of ‘80, with Brett unleashing fury against Goose Gossage and dropping a pennant-clinching home run into the upper tank.

I highly recommend Anne Rogers’ look back at the old rivalry where Brett says there was “pure hatred” coming from both sides. I actually think he may be underselling it.

I wouldn’t say I fell down a YouTube rabbit hole to post the following, because these clips are in heavy rotation on my computer.

I blame Graig Nettles for trying to get Willie Randolph killed:

“Nettles kicked him and that’s when the fight started.” Amazing that no one got thrown out after this. I score this one 10-7 for Brett who landed a nice haymaker to the jaw of Nettles.

Two Hall of Famers matching up on a crisp autumn afternoon in the Bronx. Brett got the better of Catfish Hunter each time.

Finally, Brett delivering us to the promised land.

The thing that always gets me about the 1980 clip is the noise of the crowd once the ball takes flight. It’s actually kind of disturbing, as if 56,000 people just witnessed the worst thing ever. I suppose for them it was, but for those of us home, watching on a Friday night in Kansas City, it was pure bliss. I’ll never forget where I was when this happened.

It took Brett about half a minute to get around the bases. I bet he savored every single step.

For those of you steeped in the lore of the Kansas/Missouri rivalry, recall late KU football coach Don Fambrough and his role in keeping the hatred burning between the sides. Back in the day, during the week leading up to the annual KU/MU football game, Fambrough would spend his afternoons whipping the Kansas players into a frenzy. Didn’t always work, but it’s the effort that counts. That’s how it feels like George Brett will be over the course of the next week. They should probably give him a locker in the clubhouse just so he can tell stories and get the boys ready.

I took a break from watching the Royals on Thursday to watch…more baseball. What a moment in Milwaukee going from back-to-back home runs to take a lead in the seventh inning, one of which was hit by light-hitting Sal Frelich, to the Mets going to their closer to keep the game close in the seventh and eighth to Pete Alonso, in what could have been his last at bat in a Mets uniform clearing the wall in right with a three-run shot to give his team the lead…whew. What a ballgame.

The 4-2 victory for the Mets set the field for the Divisional Series that begin on Saturday.

Two division winners have already been knocked out. Two six seeds have advanced. And three AL Central teams are still in the mix. Look at the best division in baseball go.

The postseason is an annual exercise in chaos.

Mike Jirschele, last seen around these parts as the third base coach on the Royals championship teams (I suppose you have an opinion on whether he should’ve sent Alex Gordon), was named the International League Manager of the Year. He led the Storm Chasers to a franchise-record 89 victories and the IL title, the first in team history.

Jirschele has been in the Royals organization for 33 years (33 years!), 16 of which have been at the helm of the Storm Chasers. You will not be surprised to learn he is the winningest manager in Storm Chasers history, with an all-time record of 1,152-1,154.

Congrats to Jirsch. A well-deserved honor.

Diamond Sports Group, the broadcasting entity that runs Bally’s Sports, said on Wednesday that they would be dropping a number of teams it carries for regional baseball broadcasts in 2025.

Diamond is currently in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and can terminate contracts at any point of the proceedings. Diamond will drop the Rays and Tigers under this rule. Apparently, they cannot drop the Royals as they are a group of five teams that aren’t a formal part of the bankruptcy proceedings. These teams are referred to as “joint-venture” clubs, but that doesn’t necessarily give them the protection of Diamond honoring their current broadcast agreement. They dropped the San Diego Padres, a joint-venture club, in the middle of the season last year.

This is extremely important, and potentially damaging news, as the Royals seek to set their operating budget for the upcoming 2025 season. Reports have Diamond Sports paying the Royals around $50 million per year since their contract was agreed to just before the 2020 season. That represents around 15 to 20 percent of total team revenue.

When Diamond Sports dropped the San Diego Padres during the 2023 season, MLB agreed to meet 80 percent of what was owed to San Diego out of their general fund. Can they afford to do something like that for multiple teams? The game is awash in cash, but there’s always a limit.

Last year, the Minnesota Twins and Diamond Sports entered into an agreement only for a year. That led the Twins to avoid adding payroll for the 2024 season. We saw how that turned out. Now their contract has to be negotiated again for the 2025 season. Except it doesn’t sound as if Diamond is all that interested in bringing the Twins and the other teams on expiring contracts back.

Yes, Diamond and Bally’s has been a disaster, especially in Kansas City. What’s the point of paying millions for the right to show baseball games and then failing to reach agreements with myriad streaming and cable services so fans can, you know, actually watch? I suppose it was part of some grand scheme to get customers to pony up for the Bally Sports App. Judging from the limited ad rotation (one Miller Lite ad every break? Does anyone actually watch the British Basketball League?), there weren’t exactly companies lining up to place spots.

You’ll be able to watch the Royals next year. MLB will make certain of that. But to lose some of the revenue that was supposed to be going to the Royals…that’s going to hurt. And the uncertainty around it all is damaging to the teams and the game.

Because the business of baseball never stops, MLB Trade Rumors posted their arbitration estimates for this winter. The Royals have 10 players on their 40-man roster eligible for arbitration. Here are their estimates:

Kris Bubic (4.135): $2.8MM
Hunter Harvey (5.047): $3.9MM
Carlos Hernández (3.099): $1.2MM
Kyle Isbel (3.043): $1.7MM
Daniel Lynch IV (2.136): 1.1MM
MJ Melendez (2.153): $2.5MM
John Schreiber (4.027): $2MM
Brady Singer (4.156): $8.8MM
Josh Taylor (5.121): $1.1MM
Kyle Wright (4.062): $1.8MM

The only non-tender I see on this list is Josh Taylor. That means the remaining nine would earn an estimated $25.8 million. There’s a lot of business to be settled in the next couple of months and I really don’t want to get into the fiscal weeds while the Royals are still playing. More to come on that.

Baseball is back on Saturday.

Game 1 on 10/5 - Michael Wacha vs Gerrit Cole at 5:38 CDT.
Game 2 on 10/7 - Cole Ragans vs Carlos Rodón at 6:36 CDT.

The MLB app had Game Three on 10/9 starting at 6:30ish, but now that’s back to TBD. Don’t kid yourself. The Royals are getting all night games in this series because of the Yankees. I think it’s safe to plan accordingly.

Have a great Friday. Back Saturday with more.