One step forward, two steps back
The Royals are finally getting some innings from their starting pitching but the bats decide to slumber. And one pitch dooms Mike Minor.
On Monday, when Brad Keller pitched into the seventh inning, it was just the 11th time in 83 games where a Royals starter recorded an out in the seventh. On Tuesday, Mike Minor almost matched Keller’s depth in coming back out for the seventh inning. Almost.
Except Minor failed to record an out. All three batters he faced in the frame reached. All three came around to score. It was the difference in a 6-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds.
Still…progress on the starting pitching front, right? The Royals’ starting pitchers have thrown 396 of the 724.1 innings the club has played this year. That’s just 54.6 percent of the team’s innings eaten by the starting pitchers. Minor’s outing on Tuesday actually moved the needle 0.1 percent. Here are the bottom five teams in the majors through Monday who had received the fewest innings from their starters as a percentage of innings pitched.
We’ve known that Royals’ starters not going deep into games has been an issue and a burden on the bullpen. Seeing simple percentages like this only underscores how deep the problem runs.
The teams represented above are a unique mix. The Rays as you undoubtedly know are a team that expects to liberally use their bullpen. They’ve mixed and matched their way to second place in the AL East. The Padres have a solid starting rotation that has been among the reasons they’ve been competitive in a difficult NL West. There are the Angels who are finally hovering around .500, but aren’t ultimately going anywhere. And then you have the Royals and the Orioles.
The last time Royals starters pitched into the seventh inning in back-to-back games came in the middle of May. And this was just the third time in 2021 they accomplished this.
Yet this time, they lost both games.
It’s just insane how this works. The Royals open their homestand against the Twins when they get seven innings combined from their starters, but tally two victories when the offense posts six runs on Friday and follows that up with seven on Saturday. Then, when the club finally gets some innings from their starters, the offense retreats into its shell, plating just two runs in each of the last two games.
Minor’s final line won’t flatter him—six innings with four runs allowed and three walks—but don’t be deceived. Through the first six innings, he pitched extremely well. Minor allowed the leadoff man on base just twice in the first six frames; both times bailing himself out with a double play ground ball. The Reds’ lone tally prior to the seventh inning came in the second, scoring on one of those double plays, following a Tyler Stephenson double and Joey Votto single.
It was the heart of the Reds order that came up in the seventh inning against Minor, who had thrown 82 mostly low-stress pitches to that point. The knee-jerk reaction would be to question Mike Matheny for letting Minor stay in to face the part of the lineup that did damage in the second inning for the third time in the game. But the numbers don’t tend to penalize Minor that third time through the order. Entering Tuesday’s game, Minor was roughly league average when facing a lineup for the third time.
Minor averages around 95 innings per start. He had been efficient all evening. The lone inning where his pitch count had elevated was the fifth, where he needed 21 pitches to record three outs. Even then, the only damage was a two-out walk.
The first two times Minor faced Nick Castellanos, he pitched the right-hander to near perfection. He worked his four-seamer out of the zone, going mostly inside, although he did elevate one up and out of zone the second time they squared off: an 0-1 pitch following a change Castellanos swung at and missed.
In both battles, the count went to 2-2. And both times the fifth pitch was a curve.
This is the first strikeout, a foul tip on a wicked pitch that broke down and in and caught part of the zone.
The curve on the second whiff wasn’t located in the zone, but with two strikes, it proved to be too tempting for Castellanos to avoid.
In the first two duels, Minor threw exactly two pitches in the zone. He worked Castellanos carefully. The pitch charts underscore this. The chart on the left is the strikeout in the first, the chart on the right is the strikeout in the fourth.
So after starting Castellanos with a four-seamer inside in the first plate appearance and then opening with a change in the zone for the second, Minor went back to the fastball. It didn’t go well…
But it did go far!
Again, go back and look at where Salvador Perez is set up. At first glance, he’s looking for the pitch down and on the inside corner. If Minor is going to miss, he needs to miss off the plate inside. That’s where he was working the first two plate appearances. Except this time, he delivered a meaty 88 mph fastball right in Castellanos’ happy zone.
And to listen to Minor after the game, that pitch in that location, was by design.
“I don’t know why I didn’t think he was going to be aggressive after fouling a couple of balls off his shin. I thought I could just throw something middle in and he would take a pitch or whatever. But he’s a good hitter and I shouldn’t have took a pitch off right there.“
I’m not certain I dig Minor’s explanation of how he approached that at bat. Why would Minor “take a pitch off” in the seventh inning of a game against the best hitter in the opposing lineup? Especially immediately after his club took the lead? What on earth made him think he could sneak an elevated fastball by Castellanos? And calling the pitch a fastball is generous. Coming back to the mound following an extended break where the Royals sent six batters to the plate in the bottom of the sixth, it was Minor’s slowest fastball of the night.
Castellanos is having a fine season. He’s an All-Star. His .391 OBP is tenth in the majors. His .592 slugging percentage is fourth. There aren’t many holes in his swing. To think you can attack him with an elevated 88 mph fastball is misguided.
He’s crushing nearly everything this year. If you’re working inside as the Royals did in the first three plate appearances, you damn well better hit your spots. It was a costly lesson.
Missed opportunity
The Royals, as they so often seem to do when they score a limited number of runs, squandered their best scoring opportunity of the evening. They had starter Vladimir Gutierrez on the ropes for a moment in the sixth. Carlos Santana led off with a walk. Unlike Minor the third time through the order, Gutiérrez has struggled in that situation, allowing opponents to hit .316/.426/.632 when seeing him for a third time.
The Royals were certainly getting some better swings against him in that inning.
The Perez single moved Santana to second. The Soler double plated Santana and put runners on second and third with just one out. Then the Royals got a little too aggressive.
Ultimately, where the Reds recorded the out doesn’t matter all that much. Soler was able to move up to third with two outs which is where Perez would’ve been had the contact play not been on. Had Perez been rooted to the bag, the play would’ve been to first. Basically, when you get to this part of the lineup, pick your poison…it just doesn’t matter all that much.
Hunter Dozier ended the inning—and the Royals’ best chance to break the game open—on a shallow fly to center.
Central issues
Cleveland 8, Rays 9
Fresh off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Astros, Emmanuel Clase couldn’t lock down a one-run lead in the ninth. All five batters Clase faced in the inning reached, with Yandy Díaz walking off with a chopper to second with the bases loaded.
White Sox 5, Twins 8
Bailey Ober pitched five innings, allowing two hits and three walks in shutting down the White Sox lineup. The Twins were staked to leads of 3-0 and 6-1 courtesy of a Max Kepler home run and Nick Gordon triple. Yasmani Grandal exited the game for Chicago in the sixth with an injury after a check swing.
Tigers 7, Rangers 3
Wily Peralta starts and throws seven shutout innings for Detroit. Yes, that Wily Peralta. I am now questioning everything.
Up next
Immediately following the game Matheny announced Kris Bubic would be the starter on Wednesday. Bubic was the starter in last week’s 15-1 shellacking against the Red Sox, going four innings and allowing three home runs. Since the start of June, Bubic has made four starts and not gotten to the fifth inning. He has a 10.06 ERA in those starts with 11 home runs allowed in 17 innings. Sorry for the buzzkill, but if you’re somehow still interested first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 CDT.