Matheny has a Pratto problem

Nick Pratto's demotion over the weekend highlights more issues for the Royals.

Nick Pratto last collected a base hit on September 7. On Saturday, he was optioned back to Triple-A.

The move was made when the Royals had to activate Edward Olivares from his rehabilitation stint in Omaha. Olivares had been on the 60-day IL with a quad strain.

The Royals could have made several different moves to create room for Olivares. (I am aware of one—or two—that you’re thinking of.) With just a little over two weeks remaining in the season, even with the struggles with the bat, it was a bit of a surprise they chose Pratto.

It was even more confounding when Mike Matheny provided the explanation for the move.

“If guys aren't going to get the work that they need here, if they're not going to get the reps, and we can get them the reps in Triple-A, then that's what we need to do for them.”

The full quote is here:

Bally Sports Kansas City @BallySportsKC

Matheny on Pratto being optioned to AAA since Olivares returned from the IL: "If guys aren't going to get the work that they need here, if they're not going to get the reps, and we can get them the reps in AAA, then that's what we need to do for them." #Toyota

The comment from Matheny is completely bizarre. Isn’t he in charge of the lineup? Matheny says Pratto “needs at bats,” which makes it sound like he’s been short of playing time, but that hasn’t been the case at all. He’s been in the lineup on a fairly regular basis since he made his debut in Toronto last July. While I agree that Olivares needs to have regular playing time down the stretch (it was a huge bummer that he missed such a large chunk of time this season), his return shouldn’t mean that Pratto is excised from the lineup.

Do you remember this?

Jesse Newell @jessenewell

Royals manager Mike Matheny says plan is to rotate Drew Waters through team’s OF spots. He’s in RF today. Lots of guys to go through out there. He says team has created spreadsheet to try to ensure no young player is sitting too often while trying to get all guys playing time.

Matheny said the Royals created a spreadsheet to make sure players were getting proper playing time. A spreadsheet! That alone is worthy of being mocked. (I use Baseball Reference’s defensive alignment page, but to each their own.) But here’s the deal…The spreadsheet kind of worked. In the 30 days prior to his demotion, Pratto had four days off. He accumulated 87 plate appearances, which was sixth most on the team. He wasn’t hurting for playing time.

He was, however, hurting for results. In that time, Pratto hit .167/.233/.372 with a 65 wRC+. He struck out in over 40 percent of his plate appearances. Woof.

But here’s the rub…If Pratto isn’t getting playing time—even an underperforming Pratto—who exactly is taking those plate appearances? The Royals do shuffle their defensive alignments and batting orders quite a bit, but one name that is a constant is Hunter Dozier. Dozier appeared in left field in two games in Boston. (Hey! Pratto has played some left!) It was the sixth and seventh time this year he started a game in left.

Then there’s Ryan O’Hearn. I know, I know…It’s like I’m legally obligated to point out that O’Hearn is still on this roster and, no, I don’t understand it either. According to the Roster Resource page at Fangraphs, he has an option remaining, so why not keep the left-handed hitting Pratto, a top prospect in your organization, on the major league roster and ship out another lefty who doesn’t have a future with the franchise?

The point is, the Royals have stuck with Pratto for the entire second half of the season up to this point. With a couple of weeks remaining, why make the move now? Why is his playing time supposedly drying up? Why not continue to give him the opportunity to continue to work with Alec Zumwalt and the other big league hitting instructors? If this was June, I wouldn’t be writing so much about this move. In mid-September? It just doesn’t make sense.

In analyzing Pratto’s time in the majors, one has to be clear-eyed about the results. The first issue that leaps off the Fangraphs page is his strikeouts: He’s whiffed in 36 percent of his plate appearances. That’s an ugly rate, but it’s not like he’s some kind of unhinged hacker. He has a 31 percent chase rate on swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. That’s below league average by a couple of percentage points.

The issue with Pratto at the dish would seem to be the lack of ability to make any kind of contact against breaking pitches. The curves and sliders are carving him up. Pratto is missing on 47 percent of his swings on curves. He’s whiffing on 48 percent of his swings on sliders. Those are brutal rates on breaking pitches.

It all points to some kind of perfect storm of swing and miss. Pratto knows the strike zone, as evidenced by a walk rate above 10 percent. He chases below league average, which is good. However, when he does expand the zone, he’s missing, especially low to both the inside and outside.

Those are abnormally high whiff rates on pitches low and out of the zone compared to league averages. It’s also an above-average whiff rate on pitches inside the zone.

This is ultimately why Pratto was demoted with a couple of weeks left in the season. Again though, what’s the purpose with the timing? It’s not like he’s going to be able to refine anything meaningful about his swing or approach with nine games remaining in Triple-A. Maybe he goes on a mini-tear, finishes strong and builds back a little confidence to carry into the winter.

Do you want to see something cool? Dumb question. Of course you do. How about Pratto’s spray chart on base hits?

The singles to the opposite field are flares and inside-out liners hit over the head of the infielders on the left side. The singles to the pull side are lasers or hard-hit ground balls down the line. It’s a profile of a guy who can handle a bat. He’s going with pitches that he can’t crush and taking the single while turning on his pitches. He’s a pull hitter on ground balls, which was known to big league staffs as soon as he arrived. Pratto has been getting shifted on the dirt since day one in The Show.

Enough about the singles. I’m sure your eye has drifted to the outfield wall. All around the wall. Pratto has shown the ability to hit for power to all fields. A couple of opposite field dingers, a handful of doubles hit to left and left-center compliment the expected extra-base hits collected to the pull side.

This is just a helluva spray chart. It’s a guy who knows how to handle pitches and possesses the balance and bat control to drive the ball to all fields. It’s a batted ball profile of a guy who can make some noise in the majors. I firmly believe that.

The building blocks for success are present. The swing and miss means the path isn’t going to be easy. I find it difficult to believe that Matheny can’t find a spot in the lineup for him to close out the season.

Here’s an alignment I’d like to see over the final couple weeks of 2022.

C - Perez/Melendez
1B - Pratto/Pasquantino
2B - Massey
SS - Witt Jr.
3B - Eaton
LF - Olivares/Pratto/Melendez
CF - Waters/Isbel/Taylor
RF - Isbel/Waters/Olivares
DH - Pasquantino/Melendez/Perez

There are a lot of names for nine spots, but I have faith in the almighty spreadsheet.

It’s possible to come up with a rotation where the key guys (and I include Pratto in that subset) get the majority of the playing time. However, it is not possible to come up with a rotation like that if Dozier is going to play a role.

The statement from Mike Matheny regarding the Pratto demotion raises some questions in my mind. Specifically, is he the manager to lead a roster loaded with young talent? The answer to that question when it came to his time with the Cardinals was a resounding no. His perceived favoritism to underperforming veterans infuriated fans in St. Louis.

In Kansas City, it’s not like he has a choice to play veterans since the front office dealt away bats like Carlos Santana, Whit Merrifield and Andrew Benintendi. This is a roster loaded with rookies. Matheny has to play them. Still, his continued devotion to Dozier is mystifying. Dozier has posted a -1.1 fWAR this year, the worst mark among qualified players in the majors. The fact that he’s earned enough plate appearances to be qualified is in itself a massive issue. The bat, while decidedly below average, isn’t enough to make up for the defensive shortcomings he brings. He’s having the worst season of an everyday player in the majors this year.

Here’s an idea: The Royals should stop playing him.

I believe we are witnessing the final weeks of the Matheny Era in Kansas City. The season went off the rails from the start. If you had even modest expectations for this team, they failed to meet them. The pitching has stagnated. The young players have struggled for consistency. The clubhouse was tight and seemingly toxic.

With the Royals now mostly committed to their youth, it’s not lost on ownership that they need to find a leader to guide and develop. It’s also not lost on ownership that the current staff isn’t getting things done. The Pratto demotion is just another confounding episode in a season loaded with bizarre twists and turns. When changes come—and they are coming—it won’t be because of the handling of Nick Pratto. Nor will it be because Hunter Dozier has accumulated too many at bats. Those are just small symptoms of a much larger issue.

But those small symptoms have a way of adding up. We’ve seen firsthand how that evolves into a problem. Ownership knows what the solution is. In a couple of weeks, we will see exactly how committed they are to winning.