Lost in the sun
Salvy hits the IL, Greinke returns, Santana stays hot, Bobby Witt Jr. stays awesome and Edward Olivares has a whirlwind 24 hours as the Royals drop two of three to the lowly A's.
I don’t break much news in this newsletter, but here’s something for you…The Royals are not a good offensive team. Yes, things have been better over the last couple of months, but still…They average 3.87 runs per game (which ranks 27th in the majors). Their OBP is .303, which is actually kind of impressive (23rd), and their slugging is .372, which is not(T-27th).
Do you know who’s worse? Offensively speaking. The Oakland A’s. They average 3.15 runs per game (29th). Thank goodness for the Detroit Tigers, right? Their team OBP is .274 (30th) and their slugging is .329 (T-29th). While the A’s score more than the Tigers, they are still in possession of the worst offense in the majors in 2022.
Yet the A’s won two of three from the Royals, outscoring Kansas City by a 15-13 margin.
Salvy surgery
The homestand didn’t get off to the best of starts as the Royals announced catcher Salvador Perez would undergo surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb. Judging by Perez’s Instagram account, the surgery took place in Florida on Friday.
In the short-term, this is bad news for the Royals’ offense. Perez, after scuffling in the first week or so after returning from the IL for the first time due to the thumb issue, was back to his typical offensive self. He was hitting .281/.333/.625 with five home runs and 18 RBI over his 69 plate appearances. It’s been fairly obvious over the last couple of seasons that as Perez goes, so goes the Royals’ offense.
In the long-term, this forces the Royals hand and gives MJ Melendez the undisputed starting role behind the plate. And that’s a very good thing. Melendez can now shed that DH role and focus mostly on his work with the Royals’ pitching staff and his work at catcher.
The timetable on Perez’s return is eight weeks. The Royals are very adamant that he will return in 2022. Given his seemingly superhuman ability to recover from injury, I wouldn’t doubt a late August return. However, from everything I’ve seen, he will be healing from the surgery for six or seven weeks, then will undergo some physical therapy on the thumb. Around that time, he will surely report for a rehab assignment in the minors. (This being Perez and the Royals, I’m sure he’ll get two or maybe three games before he’s declared ready. Then, he will bang a home run in his first game back.)
The only thing I’m fairly certain about with the Perez injury is that he will not see time behind the plate for the rest of the year. With three catchers on the roster, there’s just no need to subject his left thumb to that kind of punishment.
More injuries
At the same time the Royals put Perez on the IL, they also added lefty Daniel Lynch. He’s been suffering from a blister on his left index finger. Although I hadn’t publically speculated on it, I was wondering if an issue such as this had been bothering Lynch, just given the way he was lacking control on some of his pitches in his last couple of starts.
The Royals won’t be specific on how long Lynch has been dealing with the blister, only that it’s been “several starts.” A search through the Baseball Reference game logs makes me wonder if it wasn’t his last start in the month of May where he gave up six runs in four innings while walking three. He was pitching a bit better of late, but since that start he has a 6.57 ERA in 24.2 innings with a 4.7 BB/9 along with a 10.2 SO/9. That 10 whiff performance a week ago in Oakland is all the more amazing now.
Don’t forget, for pitchers the Injured List is 15 days so he could miss around three starts. I would expect him back for the Tigers series in mid-July.
The Royals made a couple of other moves this weekend, the most notable being reliever Josh Staumont to the 15-day IL with neck stiffness. He had a rough go of it on the last road trip, walking six in 3.1 innings covering five appearances. In four of those outings, he was given a fresh inning and was never able to get three clean outs. It’s been that kind of season for Staumont.
The corresponding move was bumping Jackson Kowar back to the big club. He will pitch out of the bullpen for the time being. I’m still not sure what to make of Kowar, who, over the previous month in Omaha, pitched to a 6.63 ERA over 19 innings covering four starts. That’s not great, but he did have 26 strikeouts to 11 walks in that timeframe.
I do like the idea of pitching him out of the bullpen for a bit, if only to get him reacclimated to the majors, a place where he’s never really been acclimated in the first place if we’re being honest. Maybe this will give him the opportunity to find success in shorter outings which could help the old confidence get a much-needed boost. That is, if Mike Matheny will use him. We saw how the Singer bullpen situation went down early in the year.
The duality of Edward Olivares
Edward Olivares had himself some kind of rollercoaster weekend, didn’t he? Returning to the lineup on Friday after a seven week absence with a quad strain, he did this to the second pitch he saw.
That pitch, a Cole Irvin fastball, was absolutely punished. Statcast had it at 108 MPH off the bat and 430 feet down the left field line. Impressive, yet the metrics don’t do it justice. Seriously, I could stare at that swing forever.
As if to announce his absolute disdain for Irvin’s repitoire, he ripped a changeup over the left field bullpen in his next at bat on a 1-2 pitch. If you’re keeping track, that was six pitches from Irvin to Olivares. Two exited the playing field.
Although the Royals tacked on another run in the sixth on a Carlos Santana single, the Olivares dingers was all the offense Zack Greinke and the Royals bullpen needed. Maybe it was just the fact as I noted at the open of this edition that the Oakland offense barely registers on most nights. Or maybe Greinke was as sharp as he’s been all year in his return from a flexor strain. Whatever the reason, the Olivares return was most welcome. A pair of guys coming off the IL was just what the Royals needed.
The next day for Olivares…not so much. He lost not one, but two, catchable fly balls in the sun. Both went for “doubles.” The first was off the bat of Tony Kemp to open the third. Maybe starter Brad Keller was a bit unnerved as he threw eight consecutive pitches (really, it was more like seven, or maybe even six but you know…umpires) out of the zone to load the bases in the aftermath. Kemp scored on a ground ball to short.
The second miscue was off the bat of Elvis Andrus in the fourth.
I’m not going to make excuses for Olivares, but it was a difficult sky and right field at that time of day is particularly difficult at The K. (Did I just make an excuse for Olivares after writing I wouldn’t?) Still, you can understand one misplay, but two? This one was particularly costly. Keller needed 23 pitches after this to the next four batters. He got one out, but couldn’t close out the frame. Andrus and Nick Allen, who doubled after Andrus, both scored.
As I watched Keller’s entire start, I couldn’t help but think this should debunk this whole “pitch to contact” nonsense we’ve been served this season by the Royals’ broadcast. Keller once again avoided hard contact all afternoon. Of the 15 balls put in play against the right-hander, five left the bat at a velocity greater than 90 MPH. Just two were “hard-hit,” meaning they traveled faster than 95 MPH. Yet his defense betrayed him and the other singles and doubles were flares, bloops and dribblers.
Top of the first - Seth Brown loops a single to right, scoring Kemp. It was 79 MPH off the bat, but the launch angle of 19 degrees meant it was good for a .960 xBA. That’s one of those flares that’s always going to drop in front of the outfielder.
Sean Murphy brings home the second run of the inning on a ground out to short. It was hit at 70 MPH, so softly that even though the infield was looking to turn two, Witt’s only play was to first.
Top of the third - Brown’s ground ball brought home Kemp after the first Olivares misplay. It was 91 MPH off the bat. I thought Witt had a chance to get the runner out at second, but it was probably asking too much for a double play. With no outs and the bases loaded, a run was going to score anyway.
Top of the fourth - After the second Olivares miscue, the Allen double was a ground ball up the middle that Whit Merrifield couldn’t get a handle on and it deflected off his shin into left. It had an 85 MPH exit velocity and a .160 xBA.
A Jonah Bride single brought home another run. At 99 MPH, it had the highest exit velocity of the afternoon against Keller. A more conventional single back through the middle.
By the time Keller was removed, he had thrown 93 pitches and gotten just 11 outs. He recorded four strikeouts, but it was that damn weak contact that did him in. Just two hard-hit balls, yet he allowed eight hits and five runs. Pitch to contact is garbage.
And now a word about Bobby Witt Jr.
Amazing.
OK…I’m going to write more than one word. This play wasn’t just amazing. It was “get up out of your couch and pump your fist” amazing. I’ve seen a lot of baseball. I haven’t seen many plays better than that one. Hell, even the Russian judge on the take scored it a 10.
Take a moment to appreciate the artistry.
That last photo just kills me. His feet are perfectly positioned as if he’s throwing off the ground. I don’t think I’m kidding when I say I would buy each of these and frame them in that sequence. It is perfection.
Just getting to the baseball was impressive enough. But to push off his left foot, twist and rotate to get his body in position to make the throw…and then to actually make the throw…Come on. (And let’s give some credit to former Public Enemy Number One, Carlos Santana. Nice scoop.)
Hell, that was just an encore. In the third, he clubbed his 11th dinger of the year to put the Royals on the board. This gif should be NSFW.
What a swing. No right-handed hitter should have a swing that smooth. It’s just so damn beautiful. Sorry…I’m getting a little carried away. But like I wrote at the open of this section…amazing.
Singer torched with two outs
Overall, I thought Brady Singer pitched a strong game on Sunday. He cruised through the A’s the first time through the order, allowing only a two-out double to Royal Killer Seth Brown in the opening frame. A leadoff walk—the only free pass he granted on the afternoon—advanced to second on a wild pitch and came around to score on a two-out single in the fourth. A two-out home run from Brown in the sixth was the third run. Three consecutive two-out hits in the seventh finished the scoring. See a trend?
Yep, it’s those pesky hits with two outs. Or to put it another way, the inability of Singer to close out the inning.
As a refresher, tOPS+ is Singer’s OPS+ for that given split relative to his own total for the season. So he’s doing just fine until he gets to two outs. That split is holding him back from being a better than league average pitcher. The sOPS+ is Singer’s split relative to the league. So with two outs, he’s doing 48 percent worse than the average pitcher in the same situation. That’s…brutal.
Having said that, it’s such a small sample that I don’t know that I’d read anything into the above splits. They’re presented merely for entertainment. Or to win a bar bet. It’s just that Singer has been around a league average pitcher for most of this season as a starter, but he just has found it difficult to get that third out. Sometimes it’s just a rogue single and he gets out of the inning. Other times, like Sunday, it’s fatal.
Overall though this was an impressive performance from Singer. I feel like he’s made some real positive strides in his starts this season. He’s not ace material, but he’s showing he can slot into the middle of a rotation and be a productive starter, which is something the Royals can use.
As someone who loves keeping score and box scores, I was struck by his line.
8.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO
That’s a real throwback line. Pitchers who allow five runs don’t go that deep into games. From the wonderful Stathead, here are the starters since 2016 who have thrown at least eight innings and allowed five or more runs.
Maybe I’m just a box score geek, but this is another way the game has changed for starting pitchers. A line like that used to be fairly normal. Now? Not so much.
Your Carlos Santana update
Since hitting the offensive bottom on May 30, Carlos Santana is hitting .357/.478/.554 over 17 games covering 69 plate appearances in June. He’s reached base in 15 of those games.
Baseball is wild.
More fun with numbers
With their 9-7 loss on Saturday, the Royals are 3-5 when scoring exactly seven runs. That’s a .375 winning percentage. The overall league winning percentage when scoring seven runs is .781.
While looking up the above stat, I noticed that the most frequent number of runs the Royals have scored in games this year is three. Including Sunday’s loss, they’ve scored three runs in a game 13 times. Their next most frequent amount of runs scored in a game? Zero. They’ve been shutout 10 times.
This team is incredibly frustrating in a perversely interesting way.
Central issues
Red Sox 8, Guardians 3
Cleveland celebrated their move into first place in the AL Central by losing three at home to Boston. Rich Hill held the Guardians to one run in three innings. His counterpart, Aaron Civale, allowed three runs in four on eight hits and three walks.
Rockies 3, Twins 6
Minnesota’s bullpen was a problem last week, but seemed to right itself this weekend against Colorado. The Twins relief corps hasn’t allowed a run for 14 innings.
The big news after the game was that pitching coach Wes Johnson is leaving the Twins after Thursday’s game this week to join LSU in the same role. Johnson has been the Twins’ pitching coach since 2019. He was at the University of Arkansas previously and made news for becoming the first pitching coach to make the move from the collegiate ranks directly to the majors. So, in a bizarre twist, he’s returning to the SEC…in the middle of the season. Sure.
Orioles 3, White Sox 4
You think things are grim in Kansas City? Turn to the South Side where the Sox barely salvaged a victory in a four game set with Baltimore. Dylan Cease punched out 14 birds in seven innings. The Orioles, trailing by three entering the ninth, loaded the bases thanks to two Sox errors and a walk. They could only push two runs across. Too bad. That would’ve been some kind of meltdown.
Tigers 7, Diamondbacks 11
Detroit led on three separate occasions, but couldn’t hold off the Arizona onslaught. Pavin Smith had four singles and drove in three. Wily Peralta and Will Vest combined to allow six runs in two innings out of the Tiger bullpen.
Up next
The Rangers come to town for a three-game set as the Royals close out their homestand.
Monday - LHP Martín Pérez (5-2, 1.96) vs. LHP Kris Bubic (1-4, 7.41) @ 7:10 PM
Tuesday - RHP Jon Gray (3-3, 4.18) vs. RHP Jonathan Heasley (1-3, 4.14) @ 7:10 PM
Wednesday - RHP Dane Dunning (1-5, 4.17) vs. RHP Zack Greinke (1-4, 4.68) @ 1:10 PM