Leaving it late
The bats slumbered, then awoke late for their fourth walk-off of the year. It was all about the approach in the ninth.
It’s far too late in the season, and the Royals have lost far too many games, to say a singular September victory defines a season. Yet the Royals 2-1 walk-off on Wednesday against the Guardians and the best closer in baseball, Emmanual Clase, can still be described as “fun,” “delightful,” or just…”a helluva victory.”
Clase issued three walks—two to start the inning and one intentional once he got in the soup—and blew his first save since May. The Royals leveraged those walks with a pair of productive outs, the second of which was Salvador Perez’s walk-off sacrifice fly. The only hit the Royals collected in the inning was MJ Melendez’s knock to tie the game.
A one-run lead on the road is the most tenuous of margins, even if you employ one of the best closers in baseball. The Guardians had an 81 percent chance of victory according to Baseball Savant. There’s something satisfying about Win Probabiliby charts like this.
The game became a coin flip after Drew Waters picked up the second walk of the inning, giving the Royals runners on first and second and nobody out. I can’t help but to continue my crusade against bunts by pointing out that Nicky Lopez sacrifice pushing up the lead runner 90 feet caused the Royals to fall to just a 45 percent chance of victory. I know, I know…sometimes the bunt is the right play, but still... When the out you sacrifice was already on base, that’s not a good result. Win Probability let’s you know.
Just watching Lopez square around made me think the Royals were playing for the tie. Not a bad strategy in that situation, just to push the game to extras and avoid Clase.
One reason I didn’t like it in that situation was that Clase simply couldn’t harness his cutter. It’s a pitch that hitters post a .186 BA against, but if it’s not locating, that’s not going to matter. Ten of his first 11 pitches were cutters out of the zone. The bunt Lopez laid down was a cutter out of the zone. He went with more sliders to Melendez, jumping ahead 1-2 before one caught too much of the dish and was grounded up the middle and into center. It was a fine piece of hitting, shortening the swing to protect and it just happened to do the right amount of damage.
The intentional walk to Bobby Witt Jr. to load the bases was probably the right play, but do you really want to pitch to Perez with the game hanging in the balance? I think we know the answer to that question.
Did you notice the lineup? Stupid question from me, because of course you noticed. How could you not? The spreadsheet was working in favor of the youngsters on Wednesday.
I’m not a fan of the Twitter self-promotion, so apologies on that, but it’s a concise look at the starting nine. It’s happened a few times since the All-Star Break, but it always feels worth noting when a lineup card is presented that leaves some of the remaining veterans on the bench.
Michael A. Taylor has been performing fairly well over the last month or so, but still…He’s a complimentary piece on a contending team and a guy who is grabbing far too many innings on a club that’s been out of it since April. Hunter Dozier has been just abysmal over the last 30 days. Over his last 75 plate appearances, he’s hitting .192/.213/.233 with a 30 wRC+. That wRC+ is not only the worst on the Royals over that stretch, it’s the fourth worst in the majors among players with more than 70 PAs.
I bring this up not to press the topic I’ve clogged plenty of bandwidth about over the last couple of months, but to point out that despite the roster chock full of youth, Mike Matheny still is playing his veterans far too much. In some cases, like Taylor, it’s merely preventing a younger player from getting valuable reps. In the case of Dozier, it’s at the expense of actually competing.
And that’s what the last five seasons have been about. The Royals remain committed to players because they value their veteran-ness, but they’re robbing time from the younger players. And…this is the important part…they’re not good enough to be everyday players. Dozier should remain firmly planted on the bench next to Ryan O’Hearn for the remainder of the season. O’Hearn, incidentally, has received 31 plate appearances over the last 30 days. (He’s hitting .300/.323/.367, good for a 95 wRC+.)
Bah. Enough virtual ink spilled on the veterans. Wednesday was all about the kids. With Salvador Perez and Nicky Lopez the only non-rookies in the lineup, they, as usual, struggled to score runs. But you know what? That’s fine. I believe in most of those guys. And the ones who may not hit enough to hold down a full-time major league job can certainly pick it in the field. It’s an intriguing collection of young talent. With Vinnie Pasquantino on a rehab assignment in Omaha, he should be returning to the major league roster soon. Once he’s back, the starting nine looks just a little more dangerous…and a little more interesting.
If Matheny’s spreadsheet continues to churn out lineups like we saw on Wednesday, despite any shortcomings from the offense, it should be an interesting finish to the season. They were held silent through eight, but stuck around to battle in the ninth. It’s cliché, but there’s life until that 27th out is recorded. The winning rally was jumpstarted by a pair of rookies working walks from Classe.
Our friends at Baseball Prospectus checked out Frank Mozzicato:
Mozzicato’s particular set of attributes is one not often seen in Low-A, and is especially rare for someone of his age and pedigree. The curve and change can both be projected as at least above-average, and he shows a precocious feel for pitching and comfort with interesting sequencing—more than once he opened an AB with the cambio, and the heater was a frequent finisher. Mozzicato throws from a slightly high three-quarters slot and the curve comes in between 11/5 and 10/4, high-70s or low-80s with sharp downward action. This is a legitimate out-pitch when located glove-side and down, and he is comfortable back-footing righties with it. The change is another real weapon against opposite-handed hitters, low-mid 80s and diving sharply with fade.
The notes on the curve aren’t surprising. That was his bread and butter pitch in high school, an offering with such sharp dive that it would completely flummox prep hitters. The development of the change—a pitch he had but rarely threw in high school because the curve was so good—is something to note. If he can add a plus-change to a curve that’s going to flash plus-plus, that’s going to be a helluva thing.
Mozzicato is tall and still lean. As he fills out a bit, maybe he’ll add velocity, which BP notes is currently around 90 MPH. Still, that’s a bit of progress as Baseball America’s pre-draft scouting report had his fastball at “mid to upper 80s.” In today’s game, however, he’s going to need to add a little more oomph to that heater to properly compliment the curve and change as he progresses through the system.
Mozzicato made the start on Wednesday, but stumbled and was pulled after throwing 40 pitches and recording just two outs. Before that however, he’d been pitching well of late, allowing three earned runs (six total) over his last 20 innings encompassing four starts. In that stretch, he’s walked 10 but struck out 28.
Sticking with the topic of young arms, Beck Way, acquired in the Andrew Benintendi deal last July was written up on Baseball America’s Hot Sheet after throwing eight shutout innings for High-A Quad Cities last week.
When a team faces Way, they don’t need a particularly lengthy scouting report. 0-0? Watch out for his slider. 2-0? Slider. 0-2? Slider. Way can touch 97-98 mph with his fastball, but it’s his mid-80s plus slider that he relies on most heavily.
Oh? Way’s slider comes at hitters with an impressive 14 inches of horizontal break which translates to a swing-and-miss rate of 50%. Since joining Quad Cities, Way has twirled 32.2 innings with a 3.31 ERA along with 16 walks and 41 whiffs.
Is it too early to say the Royals won that trade?
Because I’m a huge fan of chaos, especially the self-inflicted kind when it comes to baseball (hi, Mr. Commissioner!), I’m rooting for the AL Central to implode, leaving all five teams under .500. It’s possible.
White Sox 9, Mariners 6
If there’s a favorite in the division, it could be Chicago as these are not LaRussa’s Sox anymore. In a see-saw affair, Chicago fell behind early but charged back in the middle innings to take a two-run lead. However, the Mariners chipped away and tied the game almost immediately after. The White Sox scored their final three runs on a ground out, an error on a sacrifice bunt and a sacrifice fly. That’s some crazy late-inning fortitude—and needed September mojo—from a team that was on life support a few weeks ago.
Twins 4, Yankees 5 - 12 innings
Twins 1, Yankees 7
I’m conflicted, you know? It’s an annual thing for me to root for a Yankee collapse. It doesn’t happen enough, so it’s something to savor. On the other hand…the Twins. I mean, they just can’t do anything against the Yankees.
It’s enjoyable because at least one fan base is guaranteed to be miserable.
Tigers 5, Angels 4
Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani both homered. The Angels lost. Somehow, the Tigers won twice…once on the field and once more on Twitter.
The standings after play on Wednesday—and pretty much all season long—look uninspiring.
If you’re like me and rooting for chaos, the possibility of a division champ with a sub-.500 record is very much in play. The Guardians are slumping, the Twins are the Twins and the White Sox remain unconvincing. Although I think I make Chicago the favorites at this point.
The Royals will have opportunity to impact two of these teams, with six games remaining against Minnesota and Cleveland.
Craig - thank you so much for your latest column! I know you didn't intend this when you posted it but you darn near restored a sense of normalcy to my life! This is the sort of thing that happens when you get on the wrong side of 60... I had this thing on the back of my left knee called a baker's cyst that burst or exploded or something right near the end of August. It caused my red blood cell count to drop dangerously low, which made me physically weak and cognitively even more useless than usual! And here I am, normally the one who is my 95-year-old mom's caregiver 24/7 for more than 10 years! 7 days in the hospital and I was back home just in time for your column to drop. Amazing how it restored a sense of normalcy to my universe! I know that's not what you had in mind when you wrote it but thank you anyway!!!!!
It's amazing and unbelievable but true that every now and then - not often but every once in awhile - good things really do happen on the internet!
I'm pretty much the walking embodiment of the old white old school baseball guy. Yet you've never heard from a more enthusiastic advocate of the pitch clock and of so-called laser umps!
Even though I hate the idea of banning the shift I certainly won't miss it!
The only proposed changes I'm dead set against involve relocating the pitchers mound (lower it even more instead!) and making the bases bigger. Leave the field alone as much as possible!
Maybe I can reestablish my curmudgeon bona fides by pointing out that the royals appear to have several MLB pitchers and also have Luke Weaver.