Cameron throws a scare into the Reds

Noah Cameron continues his exceptional start to his major league career and the Royals avoid a sweep at the hands of the Reds.

The first two games of this homestand against the Cincinnati Reds were drab, uncompetitive affairs. The Royals got back to playing their particular brand of baseball on Wednesday, eking out a 3-2 win to salvage a game from the three-game series.

When I write “their particular brand of baseball,” you know exactly what I mean. Good starting pitching. Quality work from the bullpen. And scoring just enough runs to escape with the victory.

Of the 57 games the Royals have played this season, 29 of them have been decided by one or two runs. Over half of their games are with the thinnest margins possible. Yet, thanks to that stellar pitching, the Royals are 18-11 in such games. That’s a .621 winning percentage. That will get you to October.

If you’re not already exhausted from watching the 2025 edition of Royals baseball, perhaps you haven’t been paying close enough attention.

The best way to describe what Noah Cameron has done in his brief major league career is to just post his game log from Baseball Reference.

This is just bonkers.

There are a couple of numbers I’ll throw at you. Let’s start with Cameron’s strand rate of 98.9 percent. That’s legit laugh-out-loud territory. I just reread that sentence and, yep, I started to giggle. I am easily amused.

Then there’s his 5.6 SO/9. You can see above that, despite that one start against the Twins where he punched out eight, he’s not racking up the strikeouts. Wednesday he recorded just two.

Then there’s the fact that his BABIP is an obscenely low .153. He’s had some great defense behind him, but there’s no way he keeps it that low over his next several starts.

Cameron is on a Ned Yost-in-2015 type of heater.

Here are Cameron’s real stats along with his expected stats for the four pitches where at least 10 of them have been put in play.

He’s outperforming his expected batting average and slugging across the board. In the case of his four-seamer, he’s wildly outpacing those expected stats.

Cameron has been successful because he’s following the teachings from the Pitching School of Sweeney and Bove. He’s getting ahead of batters, throwing a first-pitch strike 64 percent of the time. Once he’s ahead, he’s still attacking the zone. Nearly 55 percent of Cameron’s pitches are strikes. The rest of his metrics (like swinging strike rate, contact rate, etc.) are aligned with major league averages. Yet he’s avoiding consistent hard contact.

I like this chart from Baseball Savant because it underscores how his pitches move.

Cameron has that good velocity separation from his fastball and changeup. They look like the same pitch coming in, before the change veers off a little more on the arm side. It’s easy to see how that’s a weapon.

It’s kind of wild that Cameron’s strikeout rate over his four starts is just 16 percent. He’s hovered around the 27 percent range in each of his last two minor league seasons. So while things like his strand rate and BABIP will surely rise, so too will his strikeout numbers. Until then, he’s the second Royals pitcher to begin his major league career with four consecutive quality starts. The first was Steve Busby.

Cameron contains pitching multitudes.

Cameron was efficient and effective until he started to tire in the sixth inning with two outs. With Austin Hays up, Cameron started leaving the ball up. The cutter, in particular, was generally elevated at this point. Even after Hays smashed a foul off his foot and was in obvious discomfort, Cameron still couldn’t get it in the zone for that third out. Hays walked and came around to score two batters later after a pair of singles. Cameron got out of that inning, but I was surprised when Quatraro let him go back out for the seventh.

This is where Cameron delivered his pitches in the seventh:

He walked Garrett Hampson on five pitches. I mean… That was Cameron’s last batter of the evening.

Still, that takes absolutely nothing away from another exceptional start. He’s been an absolute weapon covering for the losses of Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans. Lugo will return on Friday and will make the start against the Tigers. Cole Ragans threw a bullpen on Wednesday, and if he feels good on Thursday, he will make a rehab start on Saturday. That puts him on target to rejoin the rotation a week from Friday against the White Sox.

What to do then with Cameron? It would be baseball malpractice to send the guy back down after the starts he’s given the team. So, do the Royals stick with a six-man rotation? Seems unlikely. If they need to make room, Michael Lorenzen looks to be the guy they would bump to the bullpen as a long reliever. That’s the move that makes the most sense.

Because we celebrate first big league hits at ItF, take a moment to appreciate this double off the bat of John Rave.

That was a fifth inning, leadoff double against Hunter Greene. Greene pitches with a flamethrower attached to his right arm. That hit from Rave is on a 1-2 elevated fastball clocked at 99 mph. Not an easy pitch to hit and Rave was quick to it to get it to right.

Just as important as that first hit was the run Rave scored to give the Royals a 2-0 lead at that point. Of course, this is the Royals offense and nothing is easy. After Dairon Blanco sacrificed Rave over to third, Jonathan India hit a soft liner to first for the second out of the inning. It looked like the Royals would flush another opportunity, but thank goodness (as usual) for Bobby Witt Jr., who rolled a double the opposite way past first base that brought Rave home with that crucial run.

I have absolutely no idea why the Royals are okay with giving away outs in the fifth damn inning. Straight up stupid baseball if you ask me.

I digress…Congrats to Rave for that first hit and run!

Ahead of Wednesday’s game, the Royals announced they selected the contract of Andrew Hoffman from Triple-A Omaha. In the corresponding move, they optioned Evan Sisk back to the Storm Chasers.

Hoffman joined the Royals organization in 2022 as part of the deal to bring Drew Waters to the club. The Royals sent the 35th pick in the 2022 draft, which was part of the Competitive Balance round of the draft. He’s pitched at the Triple-A level for parts of three seasons. Over 129.1 innings, he’s posted a 5.64 ERA with a 10.4 SO/9 and a 4.0 BB/9. He’s pitched much better this season with a 2.84 ERA while working exclusively out of the bullpen. In 25.1 innings, Hoffman has a 13.1 SO/9 and 3.2 BB/9. So if you’re scouting the stat line, his strikeouts are up and his walks are down. Also, he’s keeping the ball in the yard.

While I love a sidearming lefty, Sisk is back down because the Royals need fresh arms in the bullpen after Tuesday’s cavalcade of relievers. Plus, he threw the day before. That was 33 pitches on Monday and then scuffled a day later, requiring 23 pitches to record just a single out of the four batters he faced. Given that he would be unavailable for a couple of days, the Royals decided they needed a better-stocked bullpen. Despite the struggles on Tuesdays, this won’t be the last time we see Sisk this season.

A note dropped late Wednesday on MLB Trade Rumors that the Royals have released Nelson Velázquez. Velázquez was out of options this season and was outrighted off the 40-man roster when he failed to make the club out of spring training. He was hitting just .202/.298/.377 in 131 PAs for the Storm Chasers. If the Royals, who are desperate for offense, do not feel Veláquez can help the team, then there’s not much point in keeping him in the organization.

His spot on Omaha’s roster will be taken by Cavan Biggio, who has accepted his option to Triple-A. Biggio remains on the Royals 40-man roster.

Central Issues

White Sox 9, Mets 4

The hapless White Sox scored early and often in preventing a sweep at the hands of the Mets. Andrew Benintendi drove in four runs and was a double shy of the cycle. I am shocked by this turn of events and do not know what else to write.

Dodgers 4, Guardians 7

Shohei Ohtani did not hit a home run in this game. So Cleveland won. Actually, Cleveland won because they exploded for five runs in the eighth with Nolan Jones hitting the game-tying single and Angel Martínez clubbing a three-run blast to provide the final margin of victory. But Shohei Ohtani not hitting a home run definitely helped.

Giants 3, Tigers 4

Detroit rode a four-run fifth inning to lock up a sweep of San Francisco in their three-game series. Trailing 3-0, Colt Keith hit a bases-loaded double that plated two and Justyn-Henry Malloy laced a two-out single that brought home two more. The Tigers got 5.1 innings of scoreless relief from their bullpen, with Tommy Kahnle throwing two perfect innings for his seventh save.

Twins 0, Rays 5

Drew Rasmussen and three relievers combined on a six-hit shutout of the Twins. Brandon Lowe hit a solo home run and Yandy Díaz hit a two-run bomb in the fourth inning to put the Rays ahead. Minnesota went 0-8 with runners in scoring position.

The Central has cooled off a bit, but with three teams sitting on 30 wins, this remains baseball’s best division.