A forgettable afternoon on Chicago's South Side
Keller struggles, the bats are cold...this sounds like the open verse to a very sad song.
Sometimes you run into a buzzsaw.
Sometimes the buzzsaw runs into you.
Both outcomes are less than ideal. The Royals experienced their own double-whammy of misfortune on Thursday on the South Side of Chicago. Brad Keller once again failed to go deep into a start, falling victim to the wrecking crew of José Abreu and Yermín Mercedes. Meanwhile, Keller’s counterpart, Lance Lynn, could do no wrong, silencing the Royals’ bats to record the second shutout of his career.
This one was over early.
Rewatching the first inning (oh, the things I do for you!) and it sure looked like Keller had an opportunity to get out of the inning cleanly. Double, dinger, dinger…In the span of nine pitches, this one was finished.
Keller is throwing hard with the 4-seam, touching 95.7 mph in this game and averaging 93.5 mph for the entire outing. But it sure felt to my amateur pitching coach eye that he was overthrowing, yanking that fastball to the glove side.
Of the 15 four-seamers Keller threw (according to classifications found on Baseball Savant), White Sox batters swung at five and didn’t fail to make contact once. They were laying off that pitch, perhaps by design or perhaps because Keller simply couldn’t locate it in the zone.
The slider was the pitch that both Abreu and Mercedes obliterated in the bottom half of the first. Both had above-average spin rates compared to Keller’s normal slider and both stayed in the zone.
Moncada…
And Mercedes…
I had to extend that gif with Mercedes because that’s just about the most impressive home run I’ve seen in a long, long time. It traveled 485 feet!
(By the way, those two home runs are your combined Play(s) of the Day. The Moncada home run was worth .173 WPA and the Mercedes home run was valued at .078 WPA.)
Keller loaded the bases in the second and put on two runners in the third. By the time he issued his third walk of the day, Mike Matheny came to get him. Keller’s day consisted of 69 pitches, 37 for strikes. It wasn’t the Opening Day disaster, but it was close enough. Keller will continue to search for answers.
Cold storage
The Royals’ bats, which looked so promising while destroying an overmatched Rangers staff, have gone cold. They’ve recorded 16 hits in the last three games, scoring five runs. The only extra-base hits have been home runs from Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez. Both were solo shots. They’ve also struck out 34 times.
Andrew Benintendi is off to a slow start to his Kansas City career, hitting .200/.259/.200 in 27 plate appearances. Same for Carlos Santana checking in at .174/.296/.217 also in 27 plate appearances. Perhaps this is where it’s helpful to note that these early small sample sizes jump out to us exactly because they are early small sample sizes. If Benintendi and Santana put up a stretch like this in mid-August, we would say they’re in a mini-slump. When these numbers present themselves in early April, it could feel like it’s time to hit a panic button.
In both cases, these are new players to the team, who are coming off down seasons. While they deserve the benefit of the doubt in the early going (it’s 27 plate appearances!), it’s also fine to be skeptical. We aren’t used to seeing these guys in Royal blue, so there’s a built-in period where they need to show some of what they can do for an extended period.
I’m not sure that even the hottest-hitting team in baseball could’ve done any damage against Lynn on Thursday. Featuring a four-seam/sinker/cutter mix only Jorge Soler seemed to consistently make solid contact with an average exit velocity in three plate appearances of 100.1 mph. Even then, Soler went just 1-3 on the day with a single. Two of his balls in play were hit on the ground. The third had a launch angle of 54 degrees. None of the three had an xBA higher than .220. It was just that kind of day.
A final thought on a game we shouldn’t spend too much time thinking about
Kyle Zimmer continues to impress coming out of the bullpen. He’s faced 18 batters this season and allowed just three to reach (one hit and two walks) with five strikeouts. He’s entered games with three runners on and stranded all three.
His velocity is hanging there across the board from what we saw in 2020, but his spin rates are up. The Royals were counting on him to be an asset out of the bullpen, but it’s possible he’s going to be able to exceed expectations.
Central Issues
Minnesota 10, Seattle 2
The Bomba Squad is alive as Twins hit three bombs. José Berríos strikes out eight in 5.2 innings.
Up Next
Another Friday off day for the Royals before they return to action Saturday. Mike Minor will take the ball for Kansas City against Dylan Cease.