A tale of two ballgames
A large deficit leads to an epic late-inning Royals comeback. Lopez keeps the line moving, Perez delivers in the clutch (again) and Bubic shows an ever so brief glimpse of promise.
It was the best of games. It was the worst of games. It was the age of hope. It was the age of despair. It was the season of light. It was the season of darkness.
With apologies to Charles Dickens, there was a certain yin to Tuesday night’s yang in the Royals’ 7-6 walk-off victory against the Reds. Kris Bubic was sharp until he wasn’t. He left with the Royals trailing 5-0. The offense was dormant until it wasn’t. They rallied for six runs over the final two innings to seal the win.
The win probability chart from Baseball Savant perfectly captures the emotions of the evening.
Let’s begin at the end. Because the ending was the best part of the game.
We’ve seen so many Royals defeats over the years, but for my money, the ones we’ve seen this year have been just a little extra frustrating. It’s not that because the some games have been close or the team is losing some nail-biters—they are, by the way—rather it’s the manner of the defeats. They just seem to give so many games away. It was satisfying to be on the recieving end of a gift. That’s not to discount that the Royals chipped away a bit at the deficit prior to the ninth inning. The Michael A. Taylor solo home run in the fifth and the Andrew Benintendi two-run shot in the eighth were necessary to set the stage for the comeback.
Make no mistake, this one was gift-wrapped by a generous Cincinnati bullpen.
A Ryan O’Hearn walk opened the inning. Hunter Dozier was hit in the arm on a 1-2 pitch. And let’s be honest, that HBP was as key as anything that happened in that inning for the simple fact that it removed the bat from Dozier’s hands and granted the Royals a precious baserunner.
Taylor followed that up with a shot off the bat at 102 mph that went through the legs of third baseman Eugenio Suarez for the first run of the inning. After Jorge Soler struck out as a pinch hitter, it was Nicky Lopez with yet another professional at bat.
The Zen Master
Lopez took the first two pitches, both of which were out of the zone, but only one was called a ball, before kissing a 95 mph four-seamer into left field. It left Lopez’s bat at 63.5 mph. It was surprising it made it over the infield.
The diagram from Baseball Savant just kind of underscores the ridiculousness of the play. Look where the left fielder finished trying to cut down Taylor at the plate.
As the broadcasters will say, that shows up as a scalded line drive in the box score. And you know what? It’s kind of true. It doesn’t matter how it’s done. What matters is that time and time again, Lopez is a guy who will put the ball in play and give you a chance to do something positive.
Seriously, if you didn’t have some kind of epiphany, some kind of Zen, while Lopez was up, I’m not sure you’ve watched enough Royals baseball this summer. Since May 27, Lopez has hit at a .333/.417/.381 clip. The dude just rarely gets himself out these days. And with runners at second and third with one out, he was exactly the guy you wanted at the plate.
After Lopez tied the game, even though he was still two batters away, it had to be Salvador Perez to deliver the win. It was his third walk-off knock of the year. If Lopez is going to give you a professional at bat, Perez is going to deliver for you in the clutch.
Amir Garrett showed three consecutive sliders. That’s exactly how you should attack Perez in that situation. He just didn’t get them off the plate.
Perez whiffed on the first one, spit on the second and hammered the third. Of course it was out of the strikezone. The fact he drove it to the base of the wall was probably the least surprising outcome (after the Lopez single, naturally) all night.
It was the fourth walk-off of the year for the Royals, and as I noted above, Perez has delivered three of them. The five-run deficit the Royals overcame matches their largest comeback of 2021. (We all remember the Opening Day run explosion.) And the late inning rally is the first time the Royals have erased a five run deficit in the eighth inning or later since May of 2016.
It was truly an epic comeback.
Innings one and two
Let’s rewind ourselves to the start of the game, because prior to the offense’s storming comeback, Bubic was the story for the Royals. He opened the game with a wobbly duel against the Cincinnati leadoff hitter Jonathan India where he couldn’t command his fastball at all. It did not portend success as without that four-seam command, his secondary pitches weren’t going to be effective at all.
India didn’t offer at any of the five pitches he saw because he simply didn’t need to do any work. Bubic put him on base with a free pass.
Not a promising start to the game, but it was a cold splash of water that served to awaken Bubic. Although he allowed a single to Tyler Stephenson in the next at bat, it was on a 1-1 curve that he flipped the opposite way to right field.
It was the curve that emerged as a helluva effective offering. Bubic knew it and threw it seven times of the 17 pitches he threw total in that inning. His pitch chart in the first (aside from those fastballs way off the zone to India) was a paragon of excellence. The curve yielded two weak ground balls that were cashed in for three outs.
I don’t think I can oversell it. To hitters two, three and four, Bubic was spotting all three of his pitches exactly where he wanted them. It was a clinic. Bubic needs to see this chart on his ceiling when he’s falling asleep. The pitching version of The Queen’s Gambit.
Once he established his secondary pitches, Bubic returned to the fastball in the second inning. The command wasn’t as strong—he missed a couple of times in the middle and got away with it—but that’s what staking out some prime real estate on the change and the curve can do. Hitters were looking for one of three pitches and frequently guessing incorrectly. By keeping them off balance, he could get away with a handful of mistakes.
Bubic finished off Eugenio Suarez on a changeup well outside of the zone to open the inning with a ground ball out. He froze Aristides Aquino on a 2-2 fastball on the inner half for the second out.
He then dusted off Tyler Naquin on a fastball low and away. In that particular sequence, Bubic showed change and curve on the second and third pitches. Both were out of the zone, but close. He then fired four consecutive fastballs. Naquin clearly wasn’t looking for that pitch in that location.
Betrayed by the outfield defense
The location in the third wasn’t exactly poor, but Bubic’s outfield defense made some questionable plays behind him that resulted in three runs.
I’ll gif Bubic’s location on all pitches in the third inning along with the spots where Reds batters put the ball in play.
He was just way too elevated and in the zone. A couple of the balls were hard-hit. But the most damaging of the balls in play—the Joey Votto triple—was off the bat at 87.6 mph and had an xBA of .070. The 0-2 curve could’ve been a little further down and out of the zone I suppose. Still, a decent pitch. It was destined to drop but Andrew Benintendi did his pitcher no favors by laying out for a ball he had no chance of catching.
In the fourth, Bubic was locating even more in the middle of the zone than he had in the third. It was a minor miracle he was able to get a strikeout and a double play wrapped around a single, home run and walk.
Bubic allowed seven baserunners in innings three and four. While his defense may have failed to make plays behind him, that still can’t hide the fact that five of those baserunners reached after being down in the count with two strikes against them.
Kyle Farmer — 1-2 changeup — single
Jonathan India — 0-2 fastball — double
Tyler Stephenson — 1-1 fastball — single
Joey Votto — 0-2 curve — triple
Tyler Naquin — 3-2 fastball — single
Buck Farmer — 1-2 changeup — home run
Shogo Akyama — 3-1 fastball — walk
Here’s where Bubic was locating those two-strike pitches in the third and fourth innings. The third inning is on the left.
Here’s the location of the two-strike pitches that were put into play.
While there were definitely some positives in how Bubic performed, the negatives once again overshadowed his outing. It was his fourth straight start where he allowed five runs or more in fewer than five innings. His average Game Score over this span is an extremely underwhelming 32.
The Royals have set their rotation through next Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star break with Sunday’s starter listed as TBD. There were enough positives that I’d be inclined to give Bubic one more start to see if he could build upon the success he found in the first two innings. One more start. Time is running out for him. He needs to find some consistency in his game, otherwise the Royals need to consider a demotion to Triple-A to sort things out or a permanent move to the bullpen.
Central issues
Tigers 5, Rangers 10
The Rangers jumped out to a 5-1 lead after five but the Tigers tied it up by the top of the seventh at 5-all. John Hicks singled to break the tie and Texas added a pair of solo home runs in the eighth to cruise to victory.
White Sox 4, Twins 1
Carlos Rodón pitched six innings of one run ball and Jose Berríos went seven innings where he allowed two runs on one hit while striking out 10. The lone hit allowed by Berríos was a two-out, two-run single by Zack Collins in the top of the second.
Cleveland @ Rays — Postponed
With Hurricane Elsa clipping the gulf coast of Florida, the two teams postponed Tuesday’s game. They will play a doubleheader on Wednesday.
It appears the teams in the division have settled into their spots for the moment. The key battle would appear to be the dogfight for fourth between the Royals and the Twins. As we’ve just edged past the halfway point of the season, I would still feel comfortable wagering on the Tigers to eventually find their way to the basement.
Up next
The Royals will go for the series victory on a Wednesday matinee. Brady Singer will get the start against Sonny Gray. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 CDT. Following the game, the Royals will depart for Celevland and a four game series to wrap up the first half of the season.